Toronto Maple Leafs: Thoughts on Sandin, Dermott, and Matthews

52 games into the Toronto Maple Leafs 56-game schedule, the Scotia North Division crown is there for the taking and no foe seems too large Canada’s team cannot conquer.

Just coming off of a five-game win streak (after a recent OT loss to Montreal), the Blue and White have set themselves apart from their potential playoff opponents, further developing the narrative Toronto should be able to sleepwalk to a final four appearance.

This team has a chance to secure their first division crown since 1999-00. This team could have their first MVP finalist since 1993.

At 33-13-6, all that remains for Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe’s team is to improve upon their playoff habits and prepare for a lengthy postseason run.

From the emergence of Rasmus Sandin in the absence of Zach Bogosian, to the first impressions of newcomer Nick Foligno, to lastly the ‘Campbell for Vezina’ campaign back in full effect, let’s get into the latest from Leafsnation.

(stats for this article as of May 3rd)

Thought #1: Leafs Defensive Improvement

A big theme of the season I have been pushing hard for is how impressive the Toronto Maple Leafs have looked in their own end. The Achilles heel of recent Toronto teams’ has been team defense and it is ultimately what has derailed the past four playoff series in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era.

In the previous edition of this exercise, I detailed how public data has not been an accurate depiction of Keefe’s defensive system and the improvement his roster has made in that regard. Private companies such as Sportlogiq were able to paint Toronto as a more defensively sound team whereas a website like Natural Stat Trick was not able to do so.

However, that has changed as of late.

In terms of expected goals goals-against per 60 minutes, the Toronto Maple Leafs rank fourth, sandwiched between the swarming structure of the Dallas Stars and the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and not far behind the current cup favorites, the Colorado Avalanche, who lead the pack (stats; Natural Stat Trick).

Similarly, the Leafs also rank seventh league-wide in high-danger chances against per 60. Protecting the net-front area has been a key element of Keefe and assistant coach Dave Hakstol’s system, where conceding point shots in favour of slot chances has lead the team to success thus far.

This commitment to team defense is what has not allowed the Leafs to falter in the face of questionable goaltending thus far. Frederik Andersen has not played since March 19th. Jack Campbell has battled injuries himself. Michael Hutchinson, although sporting solid numbers this season, was the team’s fourth goalie entering the year. David Rittich has had his own struggles as well.

The night-and-day turnaround from this season to last is nothing short of remarkable.

Thought #2: Re-emergence of Jumbo Joe

For a long stretch of time following his return from a rib injury, Joe Thornton had very little impact on the game. Fans saw the Thornton-Matthews-Marner trio restored but the success the Leafs first line achieved in the early portion of the season was short-lived.

In Thornton’s first seven games back following a fracture that sidelined him for almost a month, the former San Jose Shark legend registered nine points, displacing any concerns the 41-year-old would need to shake off some rust after such a long layoff.

But in the coming weeks, the fall from grace was steep and sudden, leaving many to question whether Jumbo Joe still had what it takes to make it in today’s NHL.

Dropping all the way down to the fourth line, Thornton only recorded two assists over the next 22 games, posting a 50% expected goals rating. His spot in the Leafs playoff lineup became in doubt. He was having trouble finding other ways to contribute to this team in a meaningful way – until a week and a half ago.

Jumbo’s assist on April 22nd against the Jets marked his first point since March 13th. Then Saturday night’s affair marked his first goal since February 18th, in which the London, Ontario native developed a surprisingly entertaining feud with arguably Winnipeg’s most important forward, Nikolaj Ehlers, taking the Jets second-leading scorer off the ice for remaining few minutes of the third period as the team was trying to secure the win.

In those two games, Thornton finished with a 64% expected goals rating, finally figuring out other ways to contribute to this Toronto Maple Leafs team without piling up the points.

And with his recent play in mind…

Thought #4: Connor McDavid and the MVP

Sitting  less than two weeks  out from the final regular season game of 2020-21, undoubtedly the current Hart Trophy front-runner is none other than Edmonton Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid.

On pace for an 82-game game equivalent of 146 points, what we are witnessing from the Richmond Hill, Ontario native is truly remarkable. With only seven games left in one half of the Battle of Alberta’s season left, it seems as if the rest of the league is just trying to find out who the runner-up is going to be (although the Leafs superstar should be a slam dunk).

But the gap between McDavid and second place may not be as large as some are making it out to be. A couple of days ago, perusing through the various stats available to the public via NHL.com, something I found very interesting was the stark contrast between McDavid’s total points vs the rest of the league and his even-strength point total vs the rest of the league.

Using Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews for comparison’s sake, #97 is 23 points ahead of #16 and 25 ahead of #34. But factoring out powerplay points and restricting the three to only even-strength points, the gap tightens…a lot.

McDavid sits at 56. Matthews sits at 49. Marner sits at 48.

There is no question McDavid will win the MVP this season – and he rightfully should. According to MoneyPuck.com, with him on the ice, the Oilers generate 68% of the expected goals, a mark that would best the NHL-leading Colorado Avalanche. With their captain on the bench, that number falls to 38%, five percentage points worse than the 31st ranked Columbus Blue Jackets.

But it is still important to remember McDavid’s lofty point total is a tad inflated by a sparkling Oilers powerplay, where the two-headed Alberta monster runs amuck.

The MVP belongs to Connor McDavid. But his quest for 100 points in 56 games is overshadowing what Matthews is doing as well.

Thought #5: Travis Dermott and the Leafs Depth Chart

A revelation over the past 10 days has been the impressive development from the electric Swede, Rasmus Sandin.

Participating in only his second game of the season, more than two months following his season debut, the 21-year-old looked anything but out of place, partnering up with third-pairing mainstay, Zach Bogosian, and quarterbacking the Leafs second powerplay (with a little taste of PP1 in recent days).

His confidence with the puck and skill in transition has already forced some of Leafsnation into anointing him the Leafs #1 defensemen come 2021-22 – which is a whole other story, but the reasoning behind the crowning remains quite significant for one teammate in particular – Travis Dermott.

Based on reports, Bogosian should be back come middle of round one (or beginning of round two as a worst case), and the declaration of Sandin as a playoff lock has put the Leafs’ 34th overall pick from 2015 in a peculiar place.

A fully healthy Toronto Maple Leafs d-core does not have Dermott in it and that sentiment was made even stronger by the combination of defensemen Sheldon Keefe put together on Thursday vs the Canucks.

Before puck drop, it was announced the team’s top two lefties, Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin, would be taking a maintenance day, and so most assumed it would be Sandin and Dermott being pushed into the top four.

But that ended up being partially correct. Sandin settled onto the Leafs top pair with TJ Brodie, but it was deadline acquisition Ben Hutton assuming the role alongside Justin Holl on the team’s second pair.

Dermott was left to patrol the bottom-pair with Timothy Liljegren, who was making his season debut.

Most likely, Keefe was just putting Hutton into an easier role with an established NHL defensemen, where the staff would get a good look at the new d-man, but the question must be asked if we are entering Dermott’s final few games wearing the Blue and White.

Step one is done. The playoffs are clinched. Step two is in sight. Following the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks Saturday night, Toronto’s magic number to secure their first division title in 21 years is down to three.

Buckle up.