Where Does Nick Foligno Fit In the Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup?
Flashback to February 2020, the mood surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs franchise was not overwhelmingly positive.
The memories of the hot streak following the immediate dismissal of Mike Babcock began to feel more and more distant by the day, as it was supplanted by a stretch of extreme inconsistency, with Kyle Dubas using “Jekyll and Hyde” as the theme of the Toronto Maple Leafs in the days leading up to the trade deadline.
Arguably no two games vindicated Dubas’ sentiment more than when the Leafs were able to orchestrate their best game of the season, defeating the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-0 at home, and subsequently falling to the Carolina Hurricanes in the infamous “David Ayres” game two days later.
Executives around the league would agree the team dictates what the general manager elects to do at the trade deadline, and in that, it was clear that iteration of the Toronto Maple Leafs was not deserving of an aggressive Kyle Dubas.
Leafsnation was hoping for additions on the blueline. None came.
Months later, we learned of a meeting between Zach Bogosian and the Leafs – where the New York native would come to Toronto a year early – that was cancelled.
Management was not ready to commit to the team.
But not this season.
The playoffs are a lock. First place in the North division almost feels like a lock. This team is ready to contend, and they showed as such to Dubas. In the 10 games prior to the deadline, the Leafs managed a 9-0-1 record, ready for any additions brought in.
Riley Nash, David Rittich, and Ben Hutton were some of the depth insurance options acquired in the days leading up to (and on) April 12th, but the crown jewel of the bunch comes in the form of former Columbus Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno.
With Foligno expected to make his Toronto Maple Leafs debut sometime this week, let’s examine what the veteran of 950 regular season games, plus another 51 in the postseason, is bringing to the Leafs lineup and where he should slot in.
But First, Who Is Nick Foligno?
Defensive specialist. Those were the two words describing Nick Foligno soon after his trade to the Leafs was announced.
Nick Foligno, reportedly acquired by TOR, is a defensive specialist top six forward who doesn't bring much of anything offensively whether it's play-driving, production, or finishing. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/zdmtglAceN
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) April 11, 2021
And it is undoubtedly fitting. Over the past three seasons, Foligno has only finished with 33, 35, and 31 points respectively. But not only is Foligno exceptional defensively at even-strength, he has been one of the more effective penalty-killing forwards in the league over the past three seasons, truly rounding out his game as a prominent defensive force.
Similarly, Foligno is a tremendous forechecker. Using Corey Sznajder’s privately tracked data, Foligno is averaging 5.5 recovered dump-ins per 60 at 5-on-5 this season. The Leafs’ most prolific forechecker, Zach Hyman, is averaging 5.4.
What drew Dubas and Co. to the Buffalo native is also his versatility. He can play anywhere from line one to three. He can fill in at center in a pinch – although, at his age, he likely fits more on the wing – and he can drive his own line.
This season in Columbus, Foligno’s most common linemates were Alex Texier and Boone Jenner. With Foligno’s 41% defensive zone faceoff percentage in contrast to 27% in the offensive zone, that line was still able to register a 53% expected goals rating (stats; Evolving-Hockey, NaturalStatTrick).
It was clear Foligno was the main cog of that threesome as Texier and Jenner, without Foligno, were only able to muster a 48% xG mark, a significant drop-off.
Off-ice, Foligno makes just as significant of an impact. Moving away from the captaincy in Ohio must have been hard for the Jackets legend, but his leadership hardware would be valuable to any franchise. Winning the Mark Messier Leadership Award in 2016-17 now gives the Toronto Maple Leafs two former recipients with Wayne Simmonds receiving the honor in 2018-19.
With the clear fit on and off the ice, let’s take a look at how Sheldon Keefe’s lineup configuration may look like with Foligno in the fold.
So, What Should the Leafs Lineup Look Like?
There really is no wrong answer the coaching staff can come up with when it comes to building a competent roster. Dubas has done an excellent job of acquiring flexible forwards and Keefe can use that invaluable advantage come playoff time.
However, oftentimes this season, the Leafs head coach has tipped his hand as to how he would like his lineup to look. Although injuries and several other misfortunes have derailed his plans, a defensive third line to match up against the stars of the North division appears to be a staple of an optimized Toronto Maple Leafs system.
One of the more prominent revelations of the season so far came in the Leafs’ three-game sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in which Keefe loaded up the Leafs’ third line with Zach Hyman anchoring a threesome of him, Pierre Engvall, and Ilya Mikheyev.
This team is incredibly hard to beat either way, but building three excellent lines makes the Leafs that much more dangerous.
Now, as of this writing, we still do not know the extent of Hyman’s knee injury, so let’s operate under the assumption he will be out of the lineup for a little while. In his absence, Keefe may look to continue with the top-six featured in Sunday’s game where we saw Alex Galchenyuk alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and Nick Robertson flanking John Tavares and William Nylander.
Those two trios were excellent against Vancouver and have given Keefe no reason to break them up.
With the top six locked in, Foligno can step right into Hyman’s former role and anchor the Leafs defensive unit alongside Engvall and Mikheyev.
Foligno will be able to use his defensive prowess and forechecking capabilities to be the backbone behind the relentless and speedy skillsets of the 6”5 Engvall and the 6”3 Mikheyev.
Accordingly, the Leafs top 12 would look as such:
Galchenyuk-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Foligno-Engvall-Mikheyev
Kerfoot-Spezza-Simmonds
Extras: Thornton
Over the next few weeks, finding opportunities to rest the team’s veterans – Thornton, Spezza, and Simmonds specifically – should be a priority for Keefe’s staff, so I would expect a decently fluid rotation in the bottom six in preparation for the playoffs.
The wild card in all of this is Riley Nash. What originally looked like as purely an LTIR move to help facilitate further deadline action may actually be a shrewd pickup by Leafs management.
Riley Nash, acquired by TOR, is arguably the best shut-down fourth line centre in the NHL. Provides no offence whatsoever - nothing happens when he's on the ice for either team. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/kz1vRO8QTn
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) April 9, 2021
Nash is quite literally the best defensive forward in the NHL and has been over the past three seasons. The 31-year-old has extensive playoff experience playing center in meaningful games with the Blue Jackets and previously the Bruins, and with Engvall in some hot waters recently, maybe a defensive unit of Foligno-Nash-Mikheyev is in the cards.
However, there are ton of caveats that would go along with this move. Nash would be coming off a knee injury, moving to a new country, a new team, with new systems, and we are expecting him to perform immediately come game one of the playoffs?
That seems like a big ask but nevertheless, the potential of that line is enticing.
Next. Leafs Top 10 Prospects. dark
With April 12th having come and gone, the Toronto Maple Leafs have entered the stretch drive of their season, gearing up for a lengthy postseason run. In the hours after the 3 p.m. EST deadline, assistant captain Morgan Reilly spoke to the media, uttering the following three words – “It’s go time.”
Indeed, Morgan, let’s go.