The Toronto Maple Leafs made a good trade to bring in Alex Kerfoot, and no one can change my mind on that.
Nazem Kadri had just been suspended for his second straight playoff series, and the Toronto Maple Leafs were moving on. In exchange for Kadri, the Leafs got a younger, faster, better defensive player who was much cheaper. What they lost in Kadri was mostly powerplay offense and that was a position of strength for them to trade from, so the deal made sense.
Last year, Kerfoot scored at the same rate as Tavares (1.9 points/60) while providing the best defense from a forward on the team. Tyson Barrie was a bonus, and he was really good after Keefe was hired, but it just didn’t work out with him. Still, I stand by the fact it was a smart move, but one that hasn’t necessarily worked out. Kadri is missed more than perhaps it was thought he would be, and Kerfoot, while effective, hasn’t really established himself.
As much as I like Kerfoot, if you’ve been watching the Leafs for the past few weeks, it won’t surprise you at all when he gets traded this week.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Alex Kerfoot
Kerfoot makes over $3 million dollars for a team that is up against the salary cap and looking to compete for the Stanley Cup. He’s also on the fourth line, so you do the math.
For the last five games, coach Sheldon Keefe has played Pierre Engvall with Wayne Simmonds and Ilya Mikheyev, while Kerfoot has played with Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza.
In four of the five games, the Engvall line got more ice time. In all of the games, the Engvall line was used to take multiple defensive zone draws while the Kerfoot line wasn’t used for any.
Keefe has been deploying Kerfoot on the fourth line now for four games (even though, technically there really isn’t a huge discrepancy in total ice time, the Engvall line is getting harder and more important minutes).
Now, statistically, Kerfoot still rates out as the Leafs best defensive forward, but the coach doesn’t seem to agree, and you’ve got to give him the benefit of the doubt because he knows Engvall better than anyone and in the NHL Engvall has not amassed a very useful sample size of minutes higher than the fourth line.
If the Leafs want to improve their team, and are up against the salary cap, it’s pretty obvious that a $3 million dollar player on the fourth line has to go. Engvall’s numbers with Mikeheyev are pretty great, too: 52% Corsi and a 56% Expected-Goals rating. (Naturalstattrick.com).
Those numbers get even better when Zach Hyman is on the line. So if trading Kerfoot could allow you enough cap space to acquire a player to play on the fist line, and you could subsequently make your third line even better, it’s a no-brainer.
The Leafs would then, ostensibly at least, have a fourth line of Thornton, Spezza and Simmonds, with options for Nick Robertson, Nic Petan, Alex Barabanov, Joey Anderson, Adam Brooks, Kenny Agostino and more.
Alex Kerfoot is a good player with lots of upside, but much like Johnsson and Kapanen before him, his salary is a luxury that can no longer be justified.