Toronto Maple Leafs: Does a Taylor Hall Trade Make Sense?

Sitting atop the North Division standings, never before in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era has a path to the Final Four been so clear for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

For this season alone, there is no Boston Bruins, no Tampa Bay Lightning. No Goliath waiting in the wings for a first-round playoff series destined to go seven games. The Toronto Maple Leafs path to the semi-finals is a lot easier than it’s been in recent years.

It is no secret Kyle Dubas and Co. are aware of the tremendous opportunity in front of them. And in recognizing this, Toronto has been one of the most active teams on the trade market over the past few weeks, looking for any potential roster upgrades.

A lot of the heavy lifting was done in the offseason to reshape the battered blueline that was not up to the standard of a Cup contender. Cap casualties Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson were shipped out of town to accommodate TJ Brodie’s $5 million AAV. Bargain bin free agents were brought in to fill out the remaining forward positions, where the contributions of Joe Thornton ($700,000), Wayne Simmonds ($1.5 million), and Jason Spezza ($700,000) cannot be overlooked.

But even so, the revolving door of auditions alongside John Tavares and William Nylander has brought up some concerns of whether the current state of the Toronto Maple Leafs forward group is strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup.

Over the past few games, Alex Galchenyuk has dominated in that role, helping the trio register 67 percent of the shot attempts, 76 percent of the expected goals, 79 percent of the scoring chances, and 87 percent of the high-danger chances (stats; Natural Stat Trick).

But in a season in which all the Toronto Maple Leafs have to do to be four wins away from a chance at hoisting the Stanley Cup is to be the best team in Canada, adding an impact forward seems like an opportunity management cannot pass up. Add in the fact the deadline is on track to be quieter than usual and Dubas is in a real enviable position.

And in dissecting the several options the Toronto Maple Leafs could look at, the most interesting of the bunch is a former Hart Trophy winner who could be had for pennies on the dollar. In a buyer’s market like this one, arguably no player stands out above the rest quite like Taylor Hall.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of potentially trading for the disgruntled Buffalo Sabre.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Taylor Hall: Cons

1. Hall’s a very underwhelming goal scorer.

The biggest knock on Hall’s game has been his subpar finishing. Throughout his career, outside of his Hart Trophy 2017-18, Hall has generally scored well below expectation.

Since the start of 2016-17 season, Hall’s goals-scored above expected are as follows: six below expectation, 10 above expectation (MVP season), one below expectation, one below expectation, five below expectation, and seven below expectation this season (stats; Evolving-Hockey).

The Calgary native has been able to create a plethora of chances for him and his linemates, but if the Leafs are looking for offensive help on the trade market, are they willing to acquire a relatively underwhelming goal scorer?

2. Injury history.

During the 2018-19 season, Hall had been dealing with knee discomfort for most of the beginning portion of the season. After playing 33 games before the Christmas break, his season was cut short. Undergoing left knee arthroscopic surgery could not have been easy for the then-Devils assistant captain to have to go through, one season removed from that career year.

But that was not the first time Hall had had surgery to repair parts of his left knee. In 2016, Hall missed a couple of weeks following arthroscopic surgery on his left knee to repair a torn meniscus. For someone whose game relies on speed, any team acquiring Hall has to know if his legs are healthy enough to continue to make him effective.

3. Is this season a sign of a potential decline?

Shooting an absurdly low 2.5% this season, Hall surely has more to give. But Kyle Dubas would not be doing his due diligence if he did not wonder if this a larger sign of who Hall is at this stage of his career.

Ever since the Hart Trophy year, Hall’s shooting percentage has decreased each season at an alarming rate. What was 14% in 2017-18, became 9.7% in 2018-19, then 6.9% last season, and now the aforementioned 2.5% (stats; hockey-reference).

As Hall approaches 30 – he will turn 30 this November – one has to wonder if the two knee surgeries as well as father time has caught up to him.

So, What Should Kyle Dubas Do?

The concerns surrounding Taylor Hall are extremely valid and any GM who elects to not pursue the 29-year-old might be making a safe bet. However, the conversation essentially boils down to one thing:

How often does a player of Hall’s ceiling and caliber come on the trade market, where a first-round pick is not part of the expected return?

It seems like too good of an opportunity for Kyle Dubas to pass up on. In a win-now, all-in season, adding that type of offensive threat to an already potent group featuring Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander, Hall would not be expected to carry the burden of being his team’s number one option.

It is possible a large portion of Hall’s shortcomings have been predicated on the fact he is not able to be a team’s best player. But if he were to come to Toronto, we are talking about a former MVP potentially being the team’s fourth or fifth best forward and guaranteed to be no higher than third.

A top six of Hall-Matthews-Marner and Galchenyuk-Tavares-Nylander is incredibly deep. What team would be able to match that? It would then allow the Leafs to keep Hyman on the third line, a spot which he has dominated over the past few weeks.

A deep forward group is essential to any contender looking to go on an extended playoff run. Bringing Taylor Hall aboard the best chance he has ever had at capturing a Stanley Cup, and with him having grown up in Ontario, I would expect to see a rejuvenated and motivated player, looking to make an impact.

It remains to be seen what Kyle Dubas, Brandon Pridham, Laurence Gillman and the Toronto Maple Leafs have up their sleeve. But there is one thing we can be certain of: something is brewing and may be coming to fruition very soon.