Toronto Maple Leafs: Travis Dermott Is a Perfect 5th Defenseman

The Toronto Maple Leafs were expected to trade Travis Dermott in this past off-season.

The narrative was that when the Toronto Maple Leafs suffered defensive injuries, that Dermott failed to step up, and was thus passed on the depth chart by  Mikko Lehtonen, Rasmus Sandin and Zach Bogosian.

Unlike most narratives that end up becoming popular, this one wasn’t based on easy answers or blatant misunderstandings. Needing a new deal, and with no obvious path to playing time, it looked like the days of Travis Dermott on the Leafs were coming to an end.

Then the Leafs signed him to a one-year show-me deal, and, playing in all but four games and outplaying his partner (Bogosian) by a mile, he’s established himself as the Leafs fifth defenseman.

Now, with the trade deadline approaching, and Sandin still needing to eventually get some minutes, and Dermott a pending RFA, it’s entirely possible the Leafs move on.  But they shouldn’t, because he’s a perfect fifth defenseman.

Travis Dermott and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Dermott is a perfect fifth defenseman because he’s great defensively, can move up if necessary, and he doesn’t score enough to make himself expensive,  but he crushes third-pairing minutes and does so consistently. (stats naturalstattrick.com and @Jfresh cards).

Dermott’s expected-goals rating this season is just under 53% which is about his career average. This might not seem like a lot, but he’s played four seasons now and the Leafs pretty much always succeed when he’s on the ice.

Dermott’s numbers are hurt this year by the fact that everyone else on the team’s blue-line has between 17 and 30 goals scored with them on the ice, while the Leafs have just seven when Dermott has been out there.

Anomalies aside, (and given the Leafs offense, I don’t think it matters) Dermott’s been great.  The Leafs have a terrible PK and may want to try him there, given his great defensive numbers.

For the past three season (see above) Dermott has been better than 86% of defenseman at actual defense.  He’s in the 68th percentile of total WAR (wins above replacement) which by impact makes him a top-four defender.

I looked at every bottom pairing in the Canadian Division and came up with four players this season who were better than Dermott –  Calgary’s Juuso Valimaki, Edmonton’s Ethan Bear, Winnipeg’s Dylan Demelo, and Montreal’s Brett Kulak.

It might not sound like a lot – being the 5th best third pairing defenseman in the Canadian Division – but it’s pretty significant when you consider that almost all the guys ahead of Dermott should be played higher in the lineup, and that he himself would probably rate out higher if he had a better partner.

Yes, as much as Bogosian gets credit for being huge and having won a Cup as the last player on one of the best teams ever assembled, he is actually a huge liability – no offense, no defense, and only average penalty killing.  For the last three years, Bogosian is better defensively than only 39% of NHL defenseman, Dermott is better than 86%.

Dermott is an elite defensive defenseman who could probably provide more offense than he has in the past, given his talent and skill profile, and he should be available to sign a fairly cheap long-term deal.

He is the perfect fifth defenseman.  Don’t forget, he’s only 24 and likely to get better still.