Toronto Maple Leafs: The Five Thought Weekly Roundup

With an 18-7-2 record thus far, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had an incredible start to their 2020-21 season. You would be hard-pressed to find something to complain about, with the team on their way to proving to the world they are for real and trying to deliver on their promise of bringing a cup back to Leafsnation.

If you are new here, The Five Thought Roundup is an occasional piece I produce, discussing various topics surrounding the team we all know and love: the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Elliotte Friedman over at Sportsnet.ca runs a weekly podcast and subsequent article, detailing various rumblings he has heard around the league – his “31 Thoughts”. While his workings cover the entire NHL and all its teams, we are here because we are proud members of Leafsnation, so every “thought” in this article is going to relate to our team.

Sitting atop the North Division, all the talk right now is about who GM Kyle Dubas will acquire over the next couple of weeks as the NHL schedule creeps closer to the April 12th trade deadline.

Questions still need to be asked, though. Does the team need a winger to play alongside Tavares and Nylander or is Kerfoot that guy and would they be better off acquiring someone more suited for third-line center minutes? Is Frederik Andersen in danger of losing his net?

All that and more, so let’s get into it.

(stats for this article as of March 10th)

Thought #1: The Play of the H-E-M Line

Leafsnation is quite a peculiar bunch. Only in this fanbase would a sweep of the Edmonton Oilers last week – where the team shutout the league’s second-highest scoring team twice and held Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to one point between the two – be the second most prominent storyline over the past 10 days.

The recent stretch from the Leafs third line has dominated headlines and has captured the attention of most viewers.

Zach Hyman, Pierre Engvall, and Ilya Mikheyev are often lauded for their defensive prowess, aggressiveness without the puck, and relentlessness on the forecheck. Dubbed the H-E-M line, the trio came together out of necessity last week due to Kerfoot’s promotion to the Tavares-Nylander line.

Specifically, Engvall’s play has been the biggest revelation. His ability to handle tough center minutes has lead some to believe Kerfoot is now expendable in a trade for a more talented top-six winger.

His contract ($3.5 million for another two and a half seasons), age (26), and versatility to play both wing and center would make the B.C. native attractive in a potential Filip Forsberg deal or even a Taylor Hall deal.

Friedman mentioned in his article this past week the Leafs have “been rumoured to be in on half the league”, with Forsberg mentioned as a specific target. Originally when I sat down to write this piece, I was hellbent on proving Kerfoot belongs as the Leafs 3C and Engvall should be the odd man out.

But over the past few days, my opinion has started to change. It seems as if every game the trio plays, they do something more impressive than the last. Another goal on Tuesday night for the H-E-M line, and with Kerfoot missing several high-danger chances set up by Tavares and Nylander, I am starting to see the merit in using the former Av as a trade chip instead.

Thought #3: Life Beyond Frederik Andersen

Marred by controversy throughout his Toronto Maple Leafs career, arguably no player currently on this roster – save  William Nylander – does not receive his fair share of praise. It seems as if when the team wins, the skaters up front performed well. However, when they lose, Andersen gets the brunt of the blame.

For the most part, the Dane has done his share since he joined the franchise in 2016. He has started the most games and faced the most shots, finishing with the most wins in that time frame. But, since the beginning of 2019-20, it is no secret Andersen has been a shell of his former self.

In 71 games, Andersen has a 2.83 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage. For a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, that is simply not good enough (stats; NHL.com).

Things really seemed to come to a head following the Leafs  loss to the Jets Tuesday, in which fans saw Andersen give up four goals against, with the eventual game-winner coming from Mason Appleton on a fairly weak shot from the Wisconsin native.

I wonder if Keefe opts for more of a 50/50 split in net when Campbell eventually returns from injury. The team has banked points early on in the season, allowing the head coach for some more room for experimentation down the stretch.

Over his past seven starts, Andersen is 3-3-1 with a 3.04 goals-against average, a .894 save percentage, and a -5.06 goals-saved above expected, which ranks 58th out of 67 qualified goaltenders (stats; Evolving-Hockey).

He simply has not played well over his most recent stretch, and long-term, it is time to start looking at life beyond Frederik Andersen.

Thought #4: So, What Happens Next Season?

Looking at the goalie market for the 2021 offseason, a name I would keep in mind is Chris Driedger of the Florida Panthers.

Currently, the team has a steady tandem in net with Driedger backing up Sergei Bobrovsky. The organization committed $70 million for seven years to the two-time Vezina Trophy winner in the summer of 2019 and included in that massive contract was a no-move clause.

With the Seattle Expansion Draft coming up this offseason, the team will be forced to protect the Russian netminder due to his NMC (unless he chooses to waive) and leave Driedger exposed. The Kraken could elect to use their pick on Driedger, but in the situation where they do not, Driedger will surely command a hefty raise from the $850,000 he is earning this season as a UFA.

Can the team afford to invest even more into their already expensive crease?

https://twitter.com/Thats_Offside/status/1368377720128737285?s=20

For those unfamiliar, Jessop worked in the Panthers organization from 2016-17 to 2019-20, most recently as a scout. If anyone were to know Driedger’s potential, it would be him.

Since the start of last season, Driedger is sporting a 2.24 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage as well as the ninth-best goals-saved above expected. With Zach Hyman needing a new contract this offseason and Morgan Rielly the next, the simplest way to save would be in net.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs were able to get a 26-year-old goaltender signed at $3-4 million with the significant promise he has already shown, that would be some pretty tidy business from Kyle Dubas.

Thought #5: Leafs Defensive Improvement

The narrative surrounding the Leafs this season has turned.

Before, Toronto was thought of as a free-flowing, trading-high-danger-chances type of team. This season, however, the considerable dedication to defensive improvement has been noticeable. Ranking sixth league-wide in goals-against per game, the two-way game of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been taken to new heights.

That being said, public data from sites such as Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey still paint the team as an average to below-average defensive team. As such, James Mirtle of The Athletic detailed how public data does not accurately represent the defensive improvement the Leafs have made this season.

Take a look at some even-strength per 60 minutes stats for the Leafs last season compared to this:

(stats from Mirtle’s March 4th article)

Shot Attempts: 54.9 vs. 51.2

Unblocked Shot Attempts: 42.4 vs. 39.0

Shots on goal: 30.6 vs. 27.7

Expected goals: 2.30 vs. 2.14

Scoring chances: 26.5 vs. 25.6

High-danger chances: 11.0 vs. 9.9

Those numbers appear to paint the picture of minimal progression the Leafs have made in their own end, but as someone who watches every game, it seemed odd as the data did not line up with the eye-test.

But using private data from Sportlogiq, you can genuinely see the commitment to defense the team has made.

From the article:

According to several sources around the league, it’s in some of the micro-stats that Sportlogiq and other similar companies track that the Leafs have made the biggest gains. Example? Last season, in odd-man rushes against at even strength, the Leafs were among the 10 worst teams in the league. This year, they’re up into the top five. Other areas where the Leafs have made a significant improvement? 1. Shots and shot attempts against from the slot area. 2. Passes to the slot against, especially uncontested ones. 3. High-danger shots against off the rush. The Leafs were in the bottom 10 in all of those statistics at even strength last season. Now, in many cases, they’re up among the league leaders. Or, at worst, league average.

The takeaway from Mirtle’s exercise is public data has generally underrated the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.

It remains to be seen what happens over the next week or so. It is clear Kyle Dubas is looking for some forward depth, and as we head down the back half of the regular season, gear up Leafsnation, the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking good.