Beyond the Basic Stats
The Maple Leafs have to let the goalie that’s giving them the highest level of confidence and probability of winning the chance to make good on both. Sometimes, it’s easiest to simply allow the stats to do the deciding.
When it comes to wins above replacement, Campbell has a 0.83, Hutchinson a 0.11, and Andersen a 0.11. For goals saved above expected, Campbell is at 5.0, Andersen is 0.7, and Hutchinson is 0.6. Andersen also has a goals saved above average of -2.1. (Stats courtesy of: MoneyPuck.)
No, analytics don’t always tell the whole story. However, putting all the pieces together and coupling these athlete’s basic numbers alongside their more advanced stats sends a message that is too obvious to ignore.
As it stands, Andersen isn’t performing at the level that Toronto needs him to be. Even if just in comparison to his counterparts. Perhaps due to sample size, but it would be to the Maple Leafs’ benefit to test that theory and find out for sure.
A Choice Toronto Has to Consider
Secondly, with the trade deadline fast approaching, Kyle Dubas will have some big decisions to make. One of them involving whether he wants to reward a starting goalie that just hasn’t been able to get it done in Toronto or work to secure a return for his services.
This isn’t your typical blame-game, either. Andersen has had the opportunity to perform when it’s mattered most, but he just hasn’t yet been the answer this Toronto team has been looking for.
Backstopping his team vs EDM tonight, Frederik Andersen has passed Curtis Joseph for the 6th most career starts by a goalie in @MapleLeafs franchise history (261). Those with more: Turk Broda (628), Johnny Bower (460), Felix Potvin (359), Mike Pamateer (287) & Harry Lumley (267) pic.twitter.com/agAooc219J
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) March 4, 2021
Even with the success he’s earned wearing the blue and white, that level of talent hasn’t been present at the times that Toronto has needed him to be performing at his peak. And if they’re already experiencing such struggles now, how can it build any confidence for what to expect come playoffs?
Andersen is currently in the last year of this contract. Already at an AAV of $5 million, it’s not as though they should expect a discount to keep the 31-year-old around. He’s at the point in his career where he’ll look to maximize his earning potential at least one more time.
Dubas is on a winning streak of his own, given how well Toronto’s offseason acquisitions are working out, so he’ll surely want to uphold that status with whatever moves he makes next. However, obviously, the team’s success has to be the priority.
With that in mind, Toronto needs to remain open to conversations that result in Andersen landing elsewhere. It would be a disservice if they didn’t consider all applicable options, given that he could walk this summer and leave the Leafs without a parting gift at all.
In the meantime, the Maple Leafs need their goalies that are playing the best to keep doing so. With confidence in the backend, the rest of the lineup can focus on doing what they’ve done all season and this team will get back to its winning ways. It’s really that simple.