Maple Leafs Need to Address Obvious Reason They’re Losing
Sure, the Toronto Maple Leafs are still atop the Scotia North Division. And, no, there’s not yet a good enough reason for fans to panic. However, as the Leafs continually find ways to lose to clubs that aren’t supposed to be beating them, that’s simply a pattern they have to break.
27 games into the 2020-21 season, Toronto sits at 18-7-2 with a .704 points percentage. Two games in hand, the Winnipeg Jets are now 16-8-1 after outplaying the Maple Leafs in the first of this three-game set
While many were quick to point to all the reasons why Winnipeg won, especially in the way of Connor Hellebuyck’s 36-save performance, the focus should be re-directed towards how Toronto lost.
The Maple Leafs have proven to be a powerhouse this season. Their goals for per game of 3.44 is second in the entire league, behind only the reigning Stanley Cup champions. Their goal-scorers are doing their job, regularly.
So, what seems to be the problem? Well, their goals against per game of 2.48 ranks them 7th in that category at the moment. Good, but not strong enough for a team looking to contend. Also, collective success among all three goaltenders is helping cover up more recent blemishes on one of their stat lines in that respect. And, this time around, we can’t blame a scenario full of back-up struggles.
While rosters win and lose as a team, individual stats do come into play as to what culminates towards the overall effort. For instance, if Auston Matthews wasn’t on as torrid of a pace as he is, we can assume his Maple Leafs wouldn’t be scoring as much as a group, either.
In that same respect, the types of performances they are getting from between the pipes matter. An off game here or there is to be expected — of any athlete, at that. But once standards are set, the picture becomes a lot more clear as to what’s working and what might not be.
It would be easy to look to Michael Hutchinson or Jack Campbell and wonder what more they can be doing. Yet, they’re not the issue. When the focus shifts to Frederik Andersen, though, some obvious signs are simply too blatant to ignore. (Stats courtesy of: NHL.)
Michael Hutchinson
Through five games played, Hutchinson currently owns a modest record of 3-2-0. Where his numbers shine a lot brighter than they did during his last stint in Toronto are within his .934 save percentage and 2.03 goals against average.
Hutchinson has also shut down the most potent producer in the game, earning his first shutout of the season against Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)
Jack Campbell
Campbell was a breath of fresh air when he joined the team last year, as he gave this fanbase faith that their backup situation would be less of one moving forward. And they were right to feel that way.
He is currently 3-0-0, with a save percentage of .951 and a goals against average of 1.33. Campbell, too, has already added a shutout through his small sample size in 2020-21. There’s no reason to believe Toronto shouldn’t expect more of the same, with an increased workload.
The @MapleLeafs have shut out the Oilers – who had been the NHL’s highest-scoring team entering their matchup Saturday – in each of the past two games, with Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson recording one shutout apiece.
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 3, 2021
📺: TOR vs. EDM at 8 p.m. on TVAS, SN pic.twitter.com/NJSRpH0PzN
Out with injury since late January, Campbell is back on the ice with his teammates. So, it seems his return is imminent. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)
Frederik Andersen
It’s easy to look to goalies as the problem following a loss. But the issue here is that Andersen has made himself the go-to scapegoat, of late. We know he’s capable, as has been evidenced by some stellar showings throughout his tenure in Toronto. Yet, he keeps making the team question if he’s the right fit.
In net for Toronto’s past two losses, Andersen is now 12-5-2. While that looks like a respectable record, things get a little less clear when you consider who he’s fallen to.
The Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, and Winnipeg Jets have all been on the better side of games with Andersen in Toronto’s net.
He has now had 27 pucks end up behind him throughout his seven losses — a goals against average of 3.86. This number in and of itself helps illustrate that these weren’t stories centred around a team that couldn’t score. Rather, the narrative is that their goaltender didn’t perform.
Even when you include his wins, Andersen’s goals against is still a subpar 2.76 and his save percentage is a mediocre .903. These are not the numbers of Stanley Cup-winning teams, while they’re also clearly the sole reason Toronto’s goalie stats are suffering. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)
Beyond the Basic Stats
The Maple Leafs have to let the goalie that’s giving them the highest level of confidence and probability of winning the chance to make good on both. Sometimes, it’s easiest to simply allow the stats to do the deciding.
When it comes to wins above replacement, Campbell has a 0.83, Hutchinson a 0.11, and Andersen a 0.11. For goals saved above expected, Campbell is at 5.0, Andersen is 0.7, and Hutchinson is 0.6. Andersen also has a goals saved above average of -2.1. (Stats courtesy of: MoneyPuck.)
No, analytics don’t always tell the whole story. However, putting all the pieces together and coupling these athlete’s basic numbers alongside their more advanced stats sends a message that is too obvious to ignore.
As it stands, Andersen isn’t performing at the level that Toronto needs him to be. Even if just in comparison to his counterparts. Perhaps due to sample size, but it would be to the Maple Leafs’ benefit to test that theory and find out for sure.
A Choice Toronto Has to Consider
Secondly, with the trade deadline fast approaching, Kyle Dubas will have some big decisions to make. One of them involving whether he wants to reward a starting goalie that just hasn’t been able to get it done in Toronto or work to secure a return for his services.
This isn’t your typical blame-game, either. Andersen has had the opportunity to perform when it’s mattered most, but he just hasn’t yet been the answer this Toronto team has been looking for.
Backstopping his team vs EDM tonight, Frederik Andersen has passed Curtis Joseph for the 6th most career starts by a goalie in @MapleLeafs franchise history (261). Those with more: Turk Broda (628), Johnny Bower (460), Felix Potvin (359), Mike Pamateer (287) & Harry Lumley (267) pic.twitter.com/agAooc219J
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) March 4, 2021
Even with the success he’s earned wearing the blue and white, that level of talent hasn’t been present at the times that Toronto has needed him to be performing at his peak. And if they’re already experiencing such struggles now, how can it build any confidence for what to expect come playoffs?
Andersen is currently in the last year of this contract. Already at an AAV of $5 million, it’s not as though they should expect a discount to keep the 31-year-old around. He’s at the point in his career where he’ll look to maximize his earning potential at least one more time.
Dubas is on a winning streak of his own, given how well Toronto’s offseason acquisitions are working out, so he’ll surely want to uphold that status with whatever moves he makes next. However, obviously, the team’s success has to be the priority.
With that in mind, Toronto needs to remain open to conversations that result in Andersen landing elsewhere. It would be a disservice if they didn’t consider all applicable options, given that he could walk this summer and leave the Leafs without a parting gift at all.
Next. Most Likely to be Traded. dark
In the meantime, the Maple Leafs need their goalies that are playing the best to keep doing so. With confidence in the backend, the rest of the lineup can focus on doing what they’ve done all season and this team will get back to its winning ways. It’s really that simple.