Maple Leafs Need to Address Obvious Reason They’re Losing

Michael Hutchinson

Through five games played, Hutchinson currently owns a modest record of 3-2-0. Where his numbers shine a lot brighter than they did during his last stint in Toronto are within his .934 save percentage and 2.03 goals against average.

Hutchinson has also shut down the most potent producer in the game, earning his first shutout of the season against Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)

Jack Campbell

Campbell was a breath of fresh air when he joined the team last year, as he gave this fanbase faith that their backup situation would be less of one moving forward. And they were right to feel that way.

He is currently 3-0-0, with a save percentage of .951 and a goals against average of 1.33. Campbell, too, has already added a shutout through his small sample size in 2020-21. There’s no reason to believe Toronto shouldn’t expect more of the same, with an increased workload.

Out with injury since late January, Campbell is back on the ice with his teammates. So, it seems his return is imminent. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)

Frederik Andersen

It’s easy to look to goalies as the problem following a loss. But the issue here is that Andersen has made himself the go-to scapegoat, of late. We know he’s capable, as has been evidenced by some stellar showings throughout his tenure in Toronto. Yet, he keeps making the team question if he’s the right fit.

In net for Toronto’s past two losses, Andersen is now 12-5-2. While that looks like a respectable record, things get a little less clear when you consider who he’s fallen to.

The Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, and Winnipeg Jets have all been on the better side of games with Andersen in Toronto’s net.

He has now had 27 pucks end up behind him throughout his seven losses — a goals against average of 3.86. This number in and of itself helps illustrate that these weren’t stories centred around a team that couldn’t score. Rather, the narrative is that their goaltender didn’t perform.

Even when you include his wins, Andersen’s goals against is still a subpar 2.76 and his save percentage is a mediocre .903. These are not the numbers of Stanley Cup-winning teams, while they’re also clearly the sole reason Toronto’s goalie stats are suffering. (Stats courtesy of: Hockey-Reference.)

Beyond the Basic Stats

The Maple Leafs have to let the goalie that’s giving them the highest level of confidence and probability of winning the chance to make good on both. Sometimes, it’s easiest to simply allow the stats to do the deciding.

When it comes to wins above replacement, Campbell has a 0.83, Hutchinson a 0.11, and Andersen a 0.11. For goals saved above expected, Campbell is at 5.0, Andersen is 0.7, and Hutchinson is 0.6. Andersen also has a goals saved above average of -2.1. (Stats courtesy of: MoneyPuck.)

No, analytics don’t always tell the whole story. However, putting all the pieces together and coupling these athlete’s basic numbers alongside their more advanced stats sends a message that is too obvious to ignore.

As it stands, Andersen isn’t performing at the level that Toronto needs him to be. Even if just in comparison to his counterparts. Perhaps due to sample size, but it would be to the Maple Leafs’ benefit to test that theory and find out for sure.

A Choice Toronto Has to Consider

Secondly, with the trade deadline fast approaching, Kyle Dubas will have some big decisions to make. One of them involving whether he wants to reward a starting goalie that just hasn’t been able to get it done in Toronto or work to secure a return for his services.

This isn’t your typical blame-game, either. Andersen has had the opportunity to perform when it’s mattered most, but he just hasn’t yet been the answer this Toronto team has been looking for.

Even with the success he’s earned wearing the blue and white, that level of talent hasn’t been present at the times that Toronto has needed him to be performing at his peak. And if they’re already experiencing such struggles now, how can it build any confidence for what to expect come playoffs?

Andersen is currently in the last year of this contract. Already at an AAV of $5 million, it’s not as though they should expect a discount to keep the 31-year-old around. He’s at the point in his career where he’ll look to maximize his earning potential at least one more time.

Dubas is on a winning streak of his own, given how well Toronto’s offseason acquisitions are working out, so he’ll surely want to uphold that status with whatever moves he makes next. However, obviously, the team’s success has to be the priority.

With that in mind, Toronto needs to remain open to conversations that result in Andersen landing elsewhere. It would be a disservice if they didn’t consider all applicable options, given that he could walk this summer and leave the Leafs without a parting gift at all.

In the meantime, the Maple Leafs need their goalies that are playing the best to keep doing so. With confidence in the backend, the rest of the lineup can focus on doing what they’ve done all season and this team will get back to its winning ways. It’s really that simple.