Toronto Maple Leafs: Week 7 News and Notes, Stats and Quotes

Each week I will dive into team news and notes for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  I will highlight the game of the week, the player of the week, and provide some fun quotes and observations as we break the season into weekly segments.

I don’t think Alberta likes the Leafs.  We saw the Toronto Maple Leafs earn 8 out of 10 points during 5 games out west, and that includes holding Connor McDavid scoreless in 3 of them.  Winning all 3 games in Edmonton vaulted the Leafs to a 9 point lead in the division with an 18-4-2 record.  The Oilers are now 10 points back of the Leafs and have fallen to 3rd in the division.

To shut a team out is tough to do.  To shut a team out with McDavid and Draisaitl on it, that’s really tough to do.  To shut them out in back to back games?  That’s really really tough to do.  The fact that the Leafs did this without their best player, with their back-up goalie in the first game, then with their 3rd string goalie in the second game, well, maybe it’s time we give this team some credit for their outstanding defensive play.

Oh, and then they buried any doubt about who the best team in the North is by crushing the Oilers 6-1 in the third game of the mini-series.  The game that the Oilers absolutely NEEDED to win just to show some pride.  Talk about making a statement.

That statement is that Leafs are a contender.

Game of the Week:  3-0 win against McDavid and the Oilers on Monday night.

Michael Hutchinson was brought in during the off-season to be the team’s 4th goalie, basically to play in the AHL and steady the Marlies.  The bonus being that he had NHL experience just in case the Leafs needed to call on him.  They called on him alright, for the third time this season, and he made 31 saves to shut out McDavid and the Oilers.

Hutchinson needed to be good early in the first and he was, making several point-blank stops to keep the score at 0’s.  Then Hyman scored 7 minutes into the game, the Leafs settled in, and they basically smothered a frustrated Oilers team from there on out.

Forwards routinely got in the way of McDavid and Draisaitl in the neutral zone, defenders stepped up to defend transition, and the Leafs did a good job of getting to pucks and exiting the defensive zone when needed.

One of the keys to stopping offensive star players is the notion that sometimes a good offense is a good defense.  The new 3rd line of Mikheyev/Engvall/Hyman did plenty of that by hemming the Oilers’ top players in the defensive zone repeatedly and just making life miserable for them.  Collectively, I would give the game puck to this trio.

After this game, I just came to the conclusion that the Leafs are a different team than what we’ve seen in years past.  Everybody steps up and contributes when called upon.  No Mathews.  No Andersen.  No Campbell.  No problem.  They just get it done.

Frederik Andersen, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

Player of the Week:  3 Goalies.

The reality behind the Toronto Maple Leafs success this week is that it was not because of any one player.

It was a complete team effort and an impressive one at that.  All 18 skaters played defense.  All four lines contributed.  To give this award to the “team” is tough to do, so by default I will give this award to the goalie, or in this case, the 3 goalies.

My player of the week goes to Jack Campbell, Michael Hutchinson, and Frederick Andersen, for the combined destruction of the Edmonton Oilers.

The combined SV% of .987 does not tell the whole story.  Most importantly, all three of these guys made key saves at key times, especially early in the 1st period when Edmonton was buzzing in all three games.

The formula was the same.  Make some saves, then the Leafs score first, then the Leafs settle in to the game and dominate, then make a couple saves late to step on their necks.  Rinse and repeat…3 times.

To completely, and mercilessly, thump another good team into submission on the road in 3 straight games is an incredibly difficult task.  It was, to be blunt, surprisingly impressive.

News and Notes

The “MEH” line.  Mikheyev/Engvall/Hyman.  James Mirtle of the Athletic mentioned this on The Leaf Report podcast and I thought it was worth repeating because it was great.  It’s the perfect description of what that line is.  He basically said that other coaches look at the line-up and when they see this line, they say “meh, I don’t need to worry about them”, and they focus on the Leafs top 6.  Then, the MEH line goes out and drives the other team bonkers.

All three are big.  All three can skate.  And now that Engvall is using his size and being more aggressive, all three are absolute dogs on a bone in terms of puck pursuit.  These guys fore-check like the puck was stolen from them, they track back defensively like their jobs depend on it, and they commit to defending whenever they’re in the defensive zone (which isn’t that often).  It’s just a bunch of “not fun” for the other team.

They have one main weakness: they don’t score much, but they drive the opposition crazy and build momentum for their team.  In both shutout wins against the Oilers, they were doing these things every single shift.

Speaking of the MEH line, the Leafs aren’t as much fun to play against as they used to be.  Alex Chiasson got suspended for a game because he cross-checked Vesey in the face after the game was over on Monday.  Yeah.  The Leafs made somebody mad.  Really mad.  Things got pretty chippy in the 3rd.  Dermott and Archibald had a wrestling match that was accompanied by a LOT of verbal sparring, and Bogosian almost fought Nurse, all this basically because the Leafs really frustrated the Oilers for 6 periods.

Add in the Muzzin puck flip from earlier in the season and the addition of Simmonds in general, and the Leafs finally have a team that pushes back.  Teams are finally starting to not like us for the right reasons, and as a fan, that’s something I can be proud of.

Another interesting note on Engvall, the experiment to put an in-experienced Engvall at center began under Keefe when he was the coach of the Marlies.  That Marlies team, with Engvall at center, went on the win the Calder Cup.  Keefe mentioned in a post game on 2-29 that he has been challenging Engvall this year to become a more complete player, and the time on the taxi squad was to make him earn a spot when the time was right.

Engvall looked really good on both Saturday and Monday, at center, only this time it was in the NHL.  Keefe believes in this player and they seem to have a great relationship.

For all the praise Barabanov was beginning to get from some fans and media, he missed a shift on Monday after taking a bad penalty.  Mikheyev took his spot in the top 6.  He was then scratched for Wednesday’s game against the Oilers.  A grim reminder from Keefe to stay focused because his job is not guaranteed, and the temporary promotion into the top 6 must be earned daily.

Is this the most talented core the Toronto Maple Leafs have ever drafted?  Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Rielly are all home-grown 1st round picks.  That is a lot of firepower and that core is putting together a lot of wins, including the 17-4-2 start to this season.  The easy answer is yes…but…only if they achieve some playoff success.  It certainly looks like this could be the year they get over that hump.

Nylander has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games.  The contradiction that is “Willy Styles” (nickname courtesy of Thornton) is still in full swing however, because in spite of his scoring touch, Keefe only used Nylander in 13-14 minutes a game against the high powered Oilers.  Even when Willy is scoring, the coaching staff still shelters him in key moments throughout the game.

Nylander is a talented offensive player and a valuable addition to the Leafs, but I feel as though I must point out that all the positive analytics that are used to support this player being a “superstar” are basically flawed due to the fact that his usage is extremely sheltered.

You cannot just blindly trust the data if the context in which that data exists is a controlled environment.  Keefe only uses Nylander when he can be successful.  Credit Nylander for executing this, but pull the rains back a bit, he’s absolutely nothing like Matthews or Marner.

Injury Update

Wayne Simmonds, fractured wrist, IR (injured 02-05, timeline 6 weeks).

Rasmus Sandin, fractured foot, will be re-evaluated in mid-march.

Jake Muzzin, facial fracture, currently playing with a face shield.

Jack Campbell, lower-body, DTD.

Stat of the Week:  .918 > .901

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4th in the NHL with a team SV% of .918.  Last year they had a team SV% of .901.  That is a huge turnaround.  Are our goalies just performing much better this year or is the team playing better defensively?  The answer is probably both, but I decided to take a deeper look (all stats via www.hockey-reference.com).

Hutchinson is 3-1 with a .943 SV% this season, after being the 4th goalie on the depth chart at the beginning of the year.  His career SV% is .907.  It begs the question, is he playing this well?  Or is he riding the success of a team that is playing really inspired hockey right now?

Jack Campbell has a .951 SV% this year.  He has a career SV% of .918.

Our back-up goalies are not really THIS good.  The team defense has improved dramatically, and this is allowing both of these guys to just make some saves.  No issues with rebounds.  Very few odd-man rushes to contend with.  The middle of the ice is clogged, so they don’t need to go from side to side very often.  They can challenge.  They can read plays.  They can get comfortable in the net.  Even a back-up goalie is still an NHL goalie, and they will make saves if given the chance to do so.

What about Frederik Andersen and his .909 SV%?  That number includes the first two games of the season when Andersen was absolutely horrible.  It also includes the worst game the Leafs have played all year, as he was in net for the 6-5 loss to the Sens when they came back from a 5-1 deficit.  If you take those 3 games out, anomalies basically, Freddy sits pretty nicely at 11-1 with a .926 SV% on the year.  His career SV% is a .916.  When you take a deeper look, even Freddy has numbers that are higher than his career norms.

All of this is not luck.  It’s also, to the contrary of some popular opinions, not because the goalies have been better.  They have performed better, yes, but it’s because they have been given a fair chance to do so.  Collectively, all of our goalies are outperforming their expectations, and that doesn’t happen randomly.

Sheldon Keefe has set the bar higher for this team and he is holding them accountable.  Team defense is not an option now, it’s a must, it’s the foundation their success.  The team is 18-4-2.  They are 4th in the league in GA/game.  Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are leading the way on the ice with elite 200 ft games, and the veteran additions made by Dubas has helped surround them with a strong foundation of leadership and support.

Simply put, here’s a table showing where the Leafs rank in the league for key defensive stats this year compared to last year:

                 2019-2020          2020-2021                       

SV%              18th                        4th            

GA                25th                        4th

xGA              27th                        10th

SCA              23rd                        12th

HDA             21st                         9th

One key part of that table to take note of is the disparity between SV% rank and GA rank from 2019-2020.  This means that last year their SV% out-performed their GA, which could be interpreted to mean that our goalies actually out-performed our team defense.  In 2020-2021, the rank for both stats are the same, which means that they are supporting each other to an even ranking, and much greater team success.

This isn’t a mirage folks.  The Leafs are really good.  And, it’s hard to say this without laughing, but the Leafs are good defensively.

Brodie is a really good defenseman and has been a really nice addition.  Holl has continued the development he showed last year, and has become a legitimate top-4 defenseman with size and speed.  Dermott has showed the maturity everybody has been waiting for and become more reliable from game to game.  Bogosian has been a calm and steady influence that is nasty to play against.  Muzzin is Muzzin, and Rielly is Rielly.

The D core is no longer the problem in Toronto.  In fact, it is now one of the top 10 units in the league.  Let that crazy fact sink in for a minute.