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Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews or McDavid as the Hart Front-runner?

By Jordan Maresky

Mar 9, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) tries to knock the puck away from Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 9, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) tries to knock the puck away from Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Toronto Maple Leafs:
TORONTO,ON – JANUARY 20: Connor McDavid #97 of the Edmonton Oilers swings around Jake Muzzin #8 of the Toronto Maple Leafs   (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

The Case for McDavid

(Stats for this article as of February 26, 2021)

The case to crown Connor McDavid the ‘Most Valuable Player’ is a pretty simple one – he leads the league in points by six with 40. He is tied for the league lead in even-strength points (with Matthews) with 22. At five-on-five, McDavid ranks third in terms of individual expected goals, fourth in individual scoring chances for, and second in individual high-danger chances for (stats; Natural Stat Trick).

With the Oilers on an absolute heater right now – winners of five in a row and sporting an 8-2-0 record over their last 10 – it seems as if the Alberta franchise is on track to finish top two in the North division. That in large part has to do with the improvements McDavid has made in the defensive zone.

Last season, the Richmond Hill, Ontario native finished in the third percentile of expected goals against per 60 and the sixth percentile of expected shots against per 60. In 22 games so far this season, McDavid ranks in the 89th percentile in expected goals against per 60 and the 88th percentile in expected shots against per 60.

It may have been ludicrous to even mention McDavid and Selke in the same sentence as recently as 2019-20, but this season it is hard to not marvel at the new heights the Oilers captain has taken his game to. With regards to his defensive impact (a blend of expected and actual goals against), McDavid ranks in between Sidney Crosby and Joel Eriksson Ek in the top 10 of expected goals against impact, per Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic.

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