Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews or McDavid as the Hart Front-runner?
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers are more than just divisional rivals. Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are two of the NHL’s best players and in direct competition for the NHL’s most coveted individual award – the Hart Trophy.
What started off as a new-age, offseason training partnership, has now transcended into a full-fledged two-horse race for the right to call themselves the NHL’s “Most Valuable Player”. Expectations for both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers markets are pretty clear – a Stanley Cup. Thus, the duo, who are the franchise cornerstones of their individual teams, decided to join up in Matthews’ Arizona home and push each other through their offseason training.
Along with the help of Coyotes’ legend Shane Doan, having that constant reminder of what arguably your biggest competitor for “best player on the planet” is doing, elevated aspects of the superstars’ games they would not have been able to achieve separately.
Videos began flowing in of the duo’s on-ice sessions, in which Peter Budaj (unfortunately) volunteered to be the goalie feeling the effects of Matthews and McDavid at work. This became the new craze as several players wanted in and the ‘Development Camp in the Desert’ expanded from two to over seven as Jonathan Toews, Jake Bean, Anthony Duclair, Matt Dumba, Alex Galchenyuk and several Coyotes joined in.
Now, over a month into the 2020-21 season, it is clear the pair has learned a thing or two from each other.
Matthews is noticeably faster. Coupling his size and strength with an extra burst of speed has vaulted the Leafs center into a new territory of the NHL hierarchy. Any hockey fan will tell you the most visible aspect of what makes McDavid the most talented player on the planet is his otherworldly speed. Likewise, the Oilers captain seems to have grown his defensive game and upped his goal-scoring prowess – two hallmarks of Matthews’ game that makes him so elite.
It remains to be seen how the Hart Trophy race shapes out, but it is clear that over the final two and a half months of the regular season, the two best players in the NHL right now are going to look to add to their already compelling MVP cases.
The Case for McDavid
(Stats for this article as of February 26, 2021)
The case to crown Connor McDavid the ‘Most Valuable Player’ is a pretty simple one – he leads the league in points by six with 40. He is tied for the league lead in even-strength points (with Matthews) with 22. At five-on-five, McDavid ranks third in terms of individual expected goals, fourth in individual scoring chances for, and second in individual high-danger chances for (stats; Natural Stat Trick).
With the Oilers on an absolute heater right now – winners of five in a row and sporting an 8-2-0 record over their last 10 – it seems as if the Alberta franchise is on track to finish top two in the North division. That in large part has to do with the improvements McDavid has made in the defensive zone.
Last season, the Richmond Hill, Ontario native finished in the third percentile of expected goals against per 60 and the sixth percentile of expected shots against per 60. In 22 games so far this season, McDavid ranks in the 89th percentile in expected goals against per 60 and the 88th percentile in expected shots against per 60.
It may have been ludicrous to even mention McDavid and Selke in the same sentence as recently as 2019-20, but this season it is hard to not marvel at the new heights the Oilers captain has taken his game to. With regards to his defensive impact (a blend of expected and actual goals against), McDavid ranks in between Sidney Crosby and Joel Eriksson Ek in the top 10 of expected goals against impact, per Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic.
The Case For Matthews
Arguably no player in the NHL has been talked about more this season than the Toronto Maple Leafs superstar center for one specific reason – his ridiculous goal soring heater. Matthews’ clearest path to winning the Hart Trophy would be if he accomplishes the 50-in-50 feat, which has not been officially done in the NHL since Brett Hull in 1991-92.
Up to 18 goas in 20 games so far this season, Matthews has already missed one Leaf game earlier this season, so to officially qualify for a 50-in-50 season, he would have to score 50 goals in 49 games.
Such an achievement would have to automatically render Matthews the ‘Most Valuable Player’, no?
But even so, Matthews can still build a compelling case beyond that potential illustrious goal-scoring performance.
He is third in league points, first in league goals, and tied for first in even-strength points. He leads the league in expected goals above replacement and at five-one-five, Matthews ranks fourth in individual expected goals, sixth in individual Corsi-for, first in individual scoring chances for, and sixth in individual high-danger chances-for, despite a wrist injury that has supposedly been bothering him “virtually all season” (stats; Evolving-Hockey).
What separates Matthews from McDavid is the Leafs center is more of a complete player.
Matthews has more defensive zone starts, has more blocks, more takeaways, more hits. He has a lower goals-against per 60 rating, a lower Corsi-against per 60 rating, and a lower expected goals against per 60 rating.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are also first in the North Division and first in the entire NHL. Should his team go on to win the President’s Trophy, Matthews can add “best player on the league’s best team” to his resume.
The Frontrunner
As of this moment, I have to give a slight edge to McDavid. He leads the league in total points and even-strength points as well as the all-encompassing Goals Above Replacement model, according to Evolving-Hockey.
Some voters will look at the Leafs’ first line and notice Matthews has played 86% of his five-on-five minutes with Mitch Marner and will use that as an argument against him. With McDavid, only 12% of his five-on-five minutes have come alongside Draisaitl.
While some may personally disagree with using linemates as a factor when submitting your Hart ballot, including me, the truth of the matter is some will, which hurts Matthews’ argument.
Now, as of this writing, the Oilers sit in second place in the division. That is largely on the back of an incredible run by an almost 39-year-old Mike Smith, who has a 6-0-0 record with a 1.73 goals-against average and a .944 save-percentage (stats; NHL).
That is bound to regress at some point, closer to Smith’s 2019-20 numbers of 2.95 and .902.
With that in mind, it is entirely possible the Oilers’ current stretch is masking some of their weaknesses and the team will fall back to earth soon enough. It is quite telling that using Luszczyszyn’s “NHL Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings” tool, the Oilers’ probability of making the playoffs sat at 60% on February 17th. Nine days later, during this hot streak, that number has jumped all the way up to 94%.
If the team was to fall back, possibly even out of the playoff picture, and the Toronto Maple Leafs continue rolling, it would be hard to crown McDavid MVP at that point. Matthews would be the rightful recipient.
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But for now, we are being given an absolute treat to be able to watch the Toronto Maple Leafs face off against the Edmonton Oilers another five times this season. One thing is for certain – the race is on.