Depth Scoring the Least of the Toronto Maple Leafs Problems

The Toronto Maple Leafs may have not gotten a lot of production from the bottom of their lineup, but depth scoring is not actually a problem.

The Leafs have been getting a ton of production out of their first line, their second line, held back by John Tavares unsustainably low 5% shooting percentage (5v5) hasn’t scored much but is putting up the kinds of numbers that inevitably lead to goals.

The third line – other than Kerfoot – hasn’t scored much, and other than a Spezza hattrick, neither has the fourth line.  Through the first 20 games of the season, the Leafs are probably lucky to be getting so many wins while getting so little scoring from their unmatched depth, but at the same time, this isn’t a situation that is likely to last.

There are enough players on the Leafs who are going to score, they just need to give it some time.

Toronto Maple Leafs Depth Scoring Will Come Around

If you look at the Leafs 5v5 scoring, Matthews and Marner are at the top of the league with 18 and 19 points each.  After that though….

Kerfoot is somehow third, with nine. Nylander is fourth with eight, then Spezza and Tavares are tied at seven.  Let’s stop and unpack this before moving on to the rest of the lineup.

First, Nylander’s stats profile is incredible.  He leads the Leafs, or is near the top, in every on-ice differential (shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances, dangerous scoring chances and goals).  He will eventually start scoring because he’s an elite scorer in the prime of his career. Absolutely no worries here.

Dragging down Nylander is Tavares, whose shooting percentage is preposterously low and guaranteed to rise as time goes on.  There is 0% of a chance that Jason Spezza will continue for long to match him in points while playing half the amount of time.  There is a 0% percent chance Kerfoot continues to outscore him.

Eventually Tavares and Nylander will get hot and the counting totals will correct themselves, giving the Leafs two elite scoring lines. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

On the third line, we’ve seen that Kerfoot can score, but eventually he’s also going to get someone better than Jimmy Vesey to play with.  When Thornton comes back, maybe that’s Hyman. Maybe it’s Simmonds, or Nick Robertson.  Either way, with healing comes goals.

Barabanov is shooting zero percent and he’ll score eventually. He’s looked good this week, and may end up being a contributor, who knows?

Then there are Hyman and Mikheyev, two players I think have been playing well but getting no puck luck. Hyman is scoring just 1.27 points per 60 while Mikheyev is just slightly lower at 1.21.  Both guys will eventually start scoring.

And that’s why the Leafs don’t have a problem.  Their depth is currently featuring three players, two from the fourth line, who are outscoring expectations (Spezza, Boyd, Kerfoot) while there are five guys who are 100% guaranteed to score more than they currently are (Nylander, Tavares, Barabanov, Mikheyev, Hyman).

Additionally, Galchenyuk, Robertson, Thornton and Simmonds are currently not playing.  When taken together, the talent on the bench combined with the number of players who are playing well but getting unlucky makes for an easy math problem: the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have an issue with depth scoring.