Can the Toronto Maple Leafs Maintain Their Lead All Season Long?

After the first 19 games of their season, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in first place of both the North Division and the NHL. They currently have an impressive 14-3-2 record for 30 points.

One of the reasons they are in first place is their goal differential of +21, which is also the best in the NHL. Toronto is tied with the Edmonton Oilers for first place in goals scored with 72.

The Leafs offense lead by Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews has been very productive. The two have combined for 59 points so far and show no signs of slowing down.

The team’s defensive play has improved from previous seasons and is another reason the team has had such a great start to their season. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Toronto Maple Leafs Offense

When it comes to goals, Matthews is leading the way. He currently leads the NHL with 18 goals. That is 18 goals in 18 games for Matthews, which puts him on pace for 55 goals if he plays every remaining game. If he did this over a full season he’d finish with the 5th highest total of all time.

Matthews is sitting fourth in points right now with 29 and his linemate Marner is tied for 3rd with 30 points. Marner leads the NHL in 5v5 points, and Matthews is second. That is fantastic production from two of your team’s highest-paid players.

After Marner and Matthews, the next player on the team’s scoring list is John Tavares with 17 points. Now that still isn’t too bad as it’s close to a point per game, but still a drastic drop from Matthews and Marner.

At some point, one or both of Matthews and Marner are going to have an off night. The team is going to need others to step up a start proving secondary offense more regularly. The problem right now isn’t so much quality of play, as it is bad shooting luck.  Tavares, Nylander and Mikheyev are getting a lot of scoring chances, but their on-ice shooting percentages are very low. For instance, Tavares’ is the lowest of his career.  If they maintain their current levels of play, the puck will eventually start going in.

The offense has gotten a boost with the return of Joe Thornton from injury. He currently has nine points in nine games playing with Matthews and Marner. Kerfoot has also seen his point production go up since joining the Tavares and Nylander line.

Matthews and Marner won’t always shoot 18%, but as that goes down, the second line’s percentage will go up.  Offense is the least of the Leafs worries.

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

At times this season, the Maple Leafs defense has looked much better than in previous years. Of course, goaltending is always going to make defense look good, and the Leafs have the fourth highest 5v5 save percentage in the NHL right now.

The off-season signing T.J Brodie has been a great addition and has allowed Morgan Rielly to play a more offensive role. The tandem of Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl has built great chemistry and have won the trust of head coach Sheldon Keefe has the team’s goto shut down pair.

A big concern is that the defense is thinking offense too much and it often leads to the other team getting an odd-man rush or a breakaway to the Toronto net. Then again, given the roster make up of the Toronto Maple Leafs, trading chances and taking offensive risks isn’t the worst idea.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltending

There have been a few games this season where Frederik Andersen has let in a few goals that he should have saved, but that happens to every goaltender. Overall, Andersen is having a great season with an 11-3-2 record. He currently has a 2.69 GAA and .905 SV% which are decent numbers for a starting goaltender. The short sample size also makes his few bad games, and the Leafs so-so PK,  have a large effect on his statistics overall.

With Andersen starting nearly every game, the Leafs are, as mentioned, fourth in 5v5 save percentage, which is a huge factor in their record.

The team has only needed to use their backup goaltender three times and so far Toronto has won all three of those games. Jack Campbell has two of those wins while Michael Hutchinson has the other. Hutchinson is currently the current backup while Campbell is out with an injury.

Andersen will need to keep playing at or above his current level if the team is to remain on top. The team will also need to keep getting wins when their backup goaltender is in the net.

I think that Toronto will stay close to their current pace, but at some point, they will encounter a mini slide as every team usually does.

I am predicting that the Maple Leafs will finish the season with a 38-12-6 record for 82 points and a first-place finish in the North Division.