Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheldon Keefe’s Best and Worst Decisions

My Take

Minutes, the best decision by far; minutes. Where Keefe’s predecessor lacked confidence in his top players, Keefe recognizes what’s best for the team and trusts his best players with top minutes and it’s paying off.

Looking back on the last full season under Mike Babcock (the 2018 – 2019 season), there’s already a very big change visible in the average time on the ice during 5v5 for the top line with Marner and Matthews;

During the 2018 – 2019 season, Matthews’s ATOI was 15 minutes per game in 5v5, so far this season under Dubas, Matthews ATOI is 17 minutes and 20 seconds per game. Marner made a jump from 14 minutes and 47 seconds to 16 minutes and 38 seconds in ATOI in 5v5. (stats per naturalstattrick).

Given Matthews has been admittedly one of the best players in the league 5v5 since entering the league in 2016, it’s a no-brainer, nonetheless, the best move by Keefe.  The average time Nylander and Tavares are on the ice 5v5 has hardly changed (dropped a little bit), telling us Keefe plays his bottom-six lines a lot less than Babcock did. Again, a no-brainer, but still.

Despite the increase of minutes, Matthews possession numbers are still of the charts, proving he can handle the minutes without losing his dominant presence on the ice.

Heck, his xGF percentage (55.31%), HDCF percentage (58.33%), and SCF (59.47%) percentages have been better so far this season than any other season before. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Jordan Maresky

While he was not the Toronto Maple Leafs  most important signing – that distinction goes to TJ Brodie – Joe Thornton was easily the most high-profile signing Kyle Dubas made this offseason. But, as everyone would come to point out, signing Thornton brought on significant risks.

Although it was just a one-year, league-minimum deal and those can never be criticized as a bad deal, the worriment was there if ‘Jumbo’ Joe could even still play. As the game continues to get younger and faster, being on the wrong side of 40 is not an enviable position to be in.

Heck, even being on the wrong side of 30 and you are probably not going to get the payday you thought you might have deserved. But head coach Sheldon Keefe dropped a bomb on the first day of Leafs training camp, telling reporters Thornton would start the season alongside Matthews and Marner.

The move was questioned at first, but before Jumbo went down with an injury, it was hard to argue with the results of the Leafs’ first line. In 50 total 5v5 minutes so far to start the season, the Thornton-Matthews-Marner line has been as good as advertised: Corsi-for – 73% Fenwick-for – 68% Shots-for – 63% Goals-for – 100% Expected goals-for – 74% Scoring chances-for – 79% High-danger chances-for – 100% (stats; naturalstattrick.com).

Although you could say they really only broke through on that second night of their back-to-back against the Ottawa Senators – seven points on the night for the trio – truth be told the Thornton-Matthews-Marner line has dominated the competition in every game so far.

Michael Da Ponte

November 2019, when the Maple Leafs fired Mike Babcock, seems like an eternity ago. In terms of NHL games, it has been just over 60 games with Sheldon Keefe behind the Toronto Maple Leafs bench. I was in the “fire Babcock” party before the 2019-2020 season began because I wanted to see what Sheldon Keefe could do with this young talented team.

So far, I have not been disappointed with the results. This season, though only 10 games in, has shown the true potential of this Toronto Maple Leafs team. They are playing more structured, deliberate hockey than we have ever seen, and that is a direct result of Sheldon Keefe’s impact.

His system takes a lot of credit for the transformation, but it is also his utilization of his players that have made the biggest difference. On a team that is constructed as the Leafs are, it can be difficult to get contributions from depth positions. Keefe has brilliantly created in the team competition with his bottom pairing defenceman and his fourth line players. Keefe has been rotating seven players in and out of the Leafs’ fourth line, which I believe has created a fourth line that seems to be disruptive almost every game.

Despite dealing with injuries amongst their forward group the fourth line rotation has remained strong. Keefe recently told Kristen Shilton that the fourth line combination of Joey Anderson, Travis Boyd, and Jason Spezza is currently the standard he expects of his fourth line. In saying this Keefe is sending a message to the rest of the players rotating in that they need to elevate their game.

Sheldon Keefe understands how to motivate his roster and get the most out of every one of his players. He has clearly identified how important depth scoring is in this league, especially during the playoffs. Maple Leafs fans know that this team will be judged solely on their playoff performance and the bottom of the lineup will have to contribute in order for them to have success.

Philip Van Riesen

There has been plenty of good and plenty of bad roster decisions by Sheldon Keefe through what is approximately the first quarter of the season. No coach is perfect, and a coach can’t make every fan happy.

However, some of the decisions Keefe has made have been questionable. Engvall and Dermott being scratched over Barbanov and Lehtonen is a huge misjudgment. It is important to note that the circumstances of these decisions may be influenced by a few things that Keefe can’t control.

For reference, if Keefe were to not give any of these European players a chance could easily heading back to play in Europe. This would also give the Leafs a bad reputation when it comes to European free agents signing with the Leafs in the future. With this all being said, Engvall and Dermott are both far superior players to Barbanov and Lehtonen.

Engvall has clearly exemplified the ability to transition the puck from the defensive zone to offense while being able to provide a solid defensive presence with his long stick and positioning. Engvall has among the top defensive metrics on the Leafs and in terms of limiting shots against, Engvall currently sits number one on the team.

In most defensive metrics Barbanov has been among the worst on the Leafs roster, and it’s not like he is providing any offense for the team with 0 points in 6 games.

Meanwhile, in Dermott’s case, he has almost the same argument, a player who the team performs very well with him on the ice, and his defensive numbers are solid which they have been since he came into the league.

Dermott’s agility, gap control, and strength make him a hard player to play against. While Lehtonen has been a disaster defensively with the worst defensive numbers on the team in multiple categories, he doesn’t seem to be effective on his own end at all.

Lehtonen has indeed shown some flashes of skill offensively, but he isn’t strong enough of a player and loses too many puck battles. In conclusion, there is nothing to warrant Engvall or Dermott being scratched in any game on any given night and I hope that Sheldon Keefe realizes this eventually.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a hard team to judge because they’re in first place, and they seem to be starting to meet expectations, but at the same time, they aren’t exactly dominating games or winning in a fashion that seems (at least traditionally) sustainable.

I didn’t like the idea of Thornton on the first line, and I would rather the team play a more wide open style because I think that if you have more talent than other teams you should try and use it.  I didn’t like that Robertson wasn’t immediately used in the top six and I wasn’t a fan of Wayne Simmonds playing high in the lineup or giving regular minutes to Zach Bogosian.

I wasn’t (and still am not) convinced it makes any sense to have Mikko Lehtonen and not play him every day, nor do I think Jimmy Vesey is better than four or five other options.  I’d also use Nylander and Tavares a lot more at 5v5, and I’d employ a super-line with Tavares on the left of Matthews and Marner, while moving Nylander to centre the second line with Hyman and  Robertson.

So there are  a lot of things I don’t necessarily agree with the coach about, but the Leafs are winning, so who cares? I would rather the coach be right and see the team win than have to constantly question every little decision.

I do think the Leafs could use a more skill-heavy version of their lineup, but I also think that Bogosian has been a somewhat pleasant surprise and that the idea of Thornton on the top line was brilliant.  That’s Keefe’s best decision so far, in my opinion.

I will wait to judge on the other stuff, but I don’t think the Leafs will truly be dominant over the longterm until they take full advantage of the talent they’ve got on the bench right now.