Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Trade for Viktor Arvidsson

Flashback to June 2020, I published an article titled “Why the Toronto Maple Leafs and…are a Match Made in Heaven.” In preparation for that piece, I scoured the free agent and trade market to find the best fit Kyle Dubas could add to the Leafs blueline. After hours of research, I settled on one name – TJ Brodie.

Well, it turns out management and I had the same thinking, as on October 9th, the day free agency opened, Brodie and the Leafs agreed to a four-year, $5 million AAV contract.

Now, nearly four and a half months later, I look to use my Nostradamus-esque powers once again to find a trade candidate out there to bolster this team’s roster, with eyes on a lengthy postseason run.

But before we get started, let’s talk about how we got here.

Injuries to Joe Thornton, Nick Robertson, and Wayne Simmonds have greatly tested the Leafs  forward depth. For the most part, the team has been able to get by, and a silver lining in all of this is head coach Sheldon Keefe has been able to find some impact fourth-liners with the emergence of Travis Boyd and Nic Petan looking like legitimate NHL players.

However, the injuries to those three coupled with Jimmy Vesey’s and Ilya Mikheyev’s struggles have left the team still searching for the right piece to flank John Tavares and William Nylander – enter Elliotte Friedman.

Recently, Friedman, co-hosting his “31 Thoughts” podcast with Jeff Marek, mentioned he believes Dubas has a particular winger in mind he would like to acquire. Although Friedman has not been able to confirm the rumour, he doubled down on his hunch, mentioning the same sentiment on a recent appearance on Tim & Sid.

And thus, Leafsnation was sent into a frenzy, peeling through every single teams’ CapFriendly page trying to figure out who the mystery winger is. Well, I will save you the trouble – it is Viktor Arvidsson.

The Nashville Predators winger would be a fantastic addition to this Toronto Maple Leafs roster and I am here to tell you why.

So, Who Is Viktor Arvidsson?

(stats as of February 14th)

Let’s get right to the point – Arvidsson is a flat-out goal scorer. Off to a slow start this season with two goals and seven points in 15 games, the Swede has been remarkably consistent in his career, scoring at or above a 20-goal pace every season from 2016-17 to 2019-20.

His best season came in 2018-19 when Arvidsson registered 34 goals and 48 points in 58 games and finished second among Predator forwards in expected goals above replacement. Averaged over a full season, Arvidsson was on pace for 48 goals and 68 points (stats; evolving-hockey).

Similarly, he has a unique intuition for knowing exactly where to be in the offensive zone which translates into a fearlessness towards getting into the dirty areas of the ice. Take a look at Arvidsson’s goal chart over the past three seasons prior to 2020-21 – it is a thing of beauty.

Hailing from Kusmark, Sweden, Arvidsson plays with a bit of bite that seems to be ingrained in the DNA of Swedish hockey players. Dubbed “Arvi Hustle” by the Predator fanbase and media alike, he finished in the 69th percentile in terms of puck recoveries on the forecheck per 60 last season.

What Arvidsson does not get enough credit for are the strides he has taken in his defensive game this season. He ranks in the 90th percentile in expected shots-against per 60 as well as the 88th percentile in expected goals-against per 60, the second-best mark of his career. Likewise, Arvidsson rarely allows the opposition entrance into the slot area, ranking in the 77th percentile in high-danger shots-against per 60 (stats; HBFAnalytics).

You get the sense of an underrated complete player in Arvidsson when looking at his assist rates also. That, in addition to his effectiveness in transition, paints Arvidsson as more than just a forechecking goal-scorer. One that you can rely on to create when the offense seems to have gone stagnant.

When peeling through all this information, the question remains why would Nashville make Arvidsson available?

The Package & The Fit

There is reasonable doubt Kyle Dubas can pull off a deal acquiring a player with an over $4 million AAV. But, using CapFriendly’s trade simulator, it is not as hard as you might think it may be.

If Nashville is willing to retain 50% of Arvidsson’s salary, offloading Pierre Engvall and Jimmy Vesey clears enough money to fit the 5″9′ winger under the cap, even with enough buffer room to activate Simmonds and Campbell when they are healthy again.

Now, if David Poile does go full rebuild, which would likely be the only way Arvidsson becomes available, Engvall and Vesey is clearly not enough of a return. I look at the package the Toronto Maple Leafs sent to the Kings in exchange for Jake Muzzin as a starting point.

Sean Durzi, Carl Grundstrom and a first-round pick could be replicated with Toronto’s 13th ranked prospect pool. Their wealth of B-level prospects plus ample draft capital could entice the Predators to move on from Arvidsson.

Although, he is younger than Muzzin was at that time, plus signed for longer-term, so it would cost more than a Durzi and a Grundstrom, but any combination of Nick Abruzzese, Roni Hirvonen, Veeti Miettinen, Filip Hållander, Mikhail Abramov, or Topi Niemelä plus a pick or two should get it done.

As for what the lineup would look like, it is hard to not love the potential of Sheldon Keefe’s team if he ran out trios of:

Thornton – Matthews – Marner

Nylander – Tavares – Arvidsson

Mikheyev – Kerfoot – Hyman

Simmonds – Boyd – Spezza

It remains to be seen who the winger Dubas has in mind is, but with the Toronto Maple Leafs already getting off a fantastic start to their season, any upgrade is going to make this team that much better.