Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Trade for Viktor Arvidsson

Flashback to June 2020, I published an article titled “Why the Toronto Maple Leafs and…are a Match Made in Heaven.” In preparation for that piece, I scoured the free agent and trade market to find the best fit Kyle Dubas could add to the Leafs blueline. After hours of research, I settled on one name – TJ Brodie.

Well, it turns out management and I had the same thinking, as on October 9th, the day free agency opened, Brodie and the Leafs agreed to a four-year, $5 million AAV contract.

Now, nearly four and a half months later, I look to use my Nostradamus-esque powers once again to find a trade candidate out there to bolster this team’s roster, with eyes on a lengthy postseason run.

But before we get started, let’s talk about how we got here.

Injuries to Joe Thornton, Nick Robertson, and Wayne Simmonds have greatly tested the Leafs  forward depth. For the most part, the team has been able to get by, and a silver lining in all of this is head coach Sheldon Keefe has been able to find some impact fourth-liners with the emergence of Travis Boyd and Nic Petan looking like legitimate NHL players.

However, the injuries to those three coupled with Jimmy Vesey’s and Ilya Mikheyev’s struggles have left the team still searching for the right piece to flank John Tavares and William Nylander – enter Elliotte Friedman.

Recently, Friedman, co-hosting his “31 Thoughts” podcast with Jeff Marek, mentioned he believes Dubas has a particular winger in mind he would like to acquire. Although Friedman has not been able to confirm the rumour, he doubled down on his hunch, mentioning the same sentiment on a recent appearance on Tim & Sid.

And thus, Leafsnation was sent into a frenzy, peeling through every single teams’ CapFriendly page trying to figure out who the mystery winger is. Well, I will save you the trouble – it is Viktor Arvidsson.

The Nashville Predators winger would be a fantastic addition to this Toronto Maple Leafs roster and I am here to tell you why.

So, Why Would Nashville Make Arvidsson Available?

Following the Predators’ disappointing qualifying round series loss at the hands of the Arizona Coyotes, GM David Poile promised significant changes after an “unacceptable” playoff defeat.

“Bottom line, this is unacceptable, and this is how we have to view this result is that we have to be better, and it’s not acceptable.” – David Poile.

This past offseason, however, many were not expecting the Predators to be major players. According to Forbes December 2020 NHL Team Values rankings, Nashville landed as the 25th most valuable franchise, with an operating income of –$13.4 million. That largely has to do with the COVID-19 pandemic, and as such, offseason improvements were not projected to be grand.

Their most notable signing came in the form of inking center Erik Haula to a one-year, $1.75 million contract. But with Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan Ellis still around, the Predators were still expected to contend in 2020-21.

Getting off to a 6-9-0 start to their season, sitting 7th out of 8 in their division in terms of points and points percentage, above only the Detroit Red Wings, Poile cannot be impressed with his team thus far.

On Saturday night, things seemed to have come to ahead as the Predators were defeated by the Wings 4-2. Rumours began to swirl on the future of head coach John Hynes, with Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now confirming reports Hynes could be on the hot seat.

Between the GM unhappy with his group, a potential coaching change after only a year on the job, and the team on an overall decline since their Stanley Cup Final loss in 2017, the recipe for a full-scale rebuild is there.

If that is the case, Arvidsson would be a nice piece for a contender to add to get ready for the playoffs.

Having suited up for 59 playoff games over the past five seasons, Arvidsson would bring along with him some postseason experience and his $4.25 million cap hit for the next three and a half seasons is attractive.

The Package & The Fit

There is reasonable doubt Kyle Dubas can pull off a deal acquiring a player with an over $4 million AAV. But, using CapFriendly’s trade simulator, it is not as hard as you might think it may be.

If Nashville is willing to retain 50% of Arvidsson’s salary, offloading Pierre Engvall and Jimmy Vesey clears enough money to fit the 5″9′ winger under the cap, even with enough buffer room to activate Simmonds and Campbell when they are healthy again.

Now, if David Poile does go full rebuild, which would likely be the only way Arvidsson becomes available, Engvall and Vesey is clearly not enough of a return. I look at the package the Toronto Maple Leafs sent to the Kings in exchange for Jake Muzzin as a starting point.

Sean Durzi, Carl Grundstrom and a first-round pick could be replicated with Toronto’s 13th ranked prospect pool. Their wealth of B-level prospects plus ample draft capital could entice the Predators to move on from Arvidsson.

Although, he is younger than Muzzin was at that time, plus signed for longer-term, so it would cost more than a Durzi and a Grundstrom, but any combination of Nick Abruzzese, Roni Hirvonen, Veeti Miettinen, Filip Hållander, Mikhail Abramov, or Topi Niemelä plus a pick or two should get it done.

As for what the lineup would look like, it is hard to not love the potential of Sheldon Keefe’s team if he ran out trios of:

Thornton – Matthews – Marner

Nylander – Tavares – Arvidsson

Mikheyev – Kerfoot – Hyman

Simmonds – Boyd – Spezza

It remains to be seen who the winger Dubas has in mind is, but with the Toronto Maple Leafs already getting off a fantastic start to their season, any upgrade is going to make this team that much better.