Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Trade for Viktor Arvidsson

So, Who Is Viktor Arvidsson?

(stats as of February 14th)

Let’s get right to the point – Arvidsson is a flat-out goal scorer. Off to a slow start this season with two goals and seven points in 15 games, the Swede has been remarkably consistent in his career, scoring at or above a 20-goal pace every season from 2016-17 to 2019-20.

His best season came in 2018-19 when Arvidsson registered 34 goals and 48 points in 58 games and finished second among Predator forwards in expected goals above replacement. Averaged over a full season, Arvidsson was on pace for 48 goals and 68 points (stats; evolving-hockey).

Similarly, he has a unique intuition for knowing exactly where to be in the offensive zone which translates into a fearlessness towards getting into the dirty areas of the ice. Take a look at Arvidsson’s goal chart over the past three seasons prior to 2020-21 – it is a thing of beauty.

Hailing from Kusmark, Sweden, Arvidsson plays with a bit of bite that seems to be ingrained in the DNA of Swedish hockey players. Dubbed “Arvi Hustle” by the Predator fanbase and media alike, he finished in the 69th percentile in terms of puck recoveries on the forecheck per 60 last season.

What Arvidsson does not get enough credit for are the strides he has taken in his defensive game this season. He ranks in the 90th percentile in expected shots-against per 60 as well as the 88th percentile in expected goals-against per 60, the second-best mark of his career. Likewise, Arvidsson rarely allows the opposition entrance into the slot area, ranking in the 77th percentile in high-danger shots-against per 60 (stats; HBFAnalytics).

You get the sense of an underrated complete player in Arvidsson when looking at his assist rates also. That, in addition to his effectiveness in transition, paints Arvidsson as more than just a forechecking goal-scorer. One that you can rely on to create when the offense seems to have gone stagnant.

When peeling through all this information, the question remains why would Nashville make Arvidsson available?

So, Why Would Nashville Make Arvidsson Available?

Following the Predators’ disappointing qualifying round series loss at the hands of the Arizona Coyotes, GM David Poile promised significant changes after an “unacceptable” playoff defeat.

“Bottom line, this is unacceptable, and this is how we have to view this result is that we have to be better, and it’s not acceptable.” – David Poile.

This past offseason, however, many were not expecting the Predators to be major players. According to Forbes December 2020 NHL Team Values rankings, Nashville landed as the 25th most valuable franchise, with an operating income of –$13.4 million. That largely has to do with the COVID-19 pandemic, and as such, offseason improvements were not projected to be grand.

Their most notable signing came in the form of inking center Erik Haula to a one-year, $1.75 million contract. But with Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan Ellis still around, the Predators were still expected to contend in 2020-21.

Getting off to a 6-9-0 start to their season, sitting 7th out of 8 in their division in terms of points and points percentage, above only the Detroit Red Wings, Poile cannot be impressed with his team thus far.

On Saturday night, things seemed to have come to ahead as the Predators were defeated by the Wings 4-2. Rumours began to swirl on the future of head coach John Hynes, with Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now confirming reports Hynes could be on the hot seat.

Between the GM unhappy with his group, a potential coaching change after only a year on the job, and the team on an overall decline since their Stanley Cup Final loss in 2017, the recipe for a full-scale rebuild is there.

If that is the case, Arvidsson would be a nice piece for a contender to add to get ready for the playoffs.

Having suited up for 59 playoff games over the past five seasons, Arvidsson would bring along with him some postseason experience and his $4.25 million cap hit for the next three and a half seasons is attractive.

The Package & The Fit

There is reasonable doubt Kyle Dubas can pull off a deal acquiring a player with an over $4 million AAV. But, using CapFriendly’s trade simulator, it is not as hard as you might think it may be.

If Nashville is willing to retain 50% of Arvidsson’s salary, offloading Pierre Engvall and Jimmy Vesey clears enough money to fit the 5″9′ winger under the cap, even with enough buffer room to activate Simmonds and Campbell when they are healthy again.

Now, if David Poile does go full rebuild, which would likely be the only way Arvidsson becomes available, Engvall and Vesey is clearly not enough of a return. I look at the package the Toronto Maple Leafs sent to the Kings in exchange for Jake Muzzin as a starting point.

Sean Durzi, Carl Grundstrom and a first-round pick could be replicated with Toronto’s 13th ranked prospect pool. Their wealth of B-level prospects plus ample draft capital could entice the Predators to move on from Arvidsson.

Although, he is younger than Muzzin was at that time, plus signed for longer-term, so it would cost more than a Durzi and a Grundstrom, but any combination of Nick Abruzzese, Roni Hirvonen, Veeti Miettinen, Filip Hållander, Mikhail Abramov, or Topi Niemelä plus a pick or two should get it done.

As for what the lineup would look like, it is hard to not love the potential of Sheldon Keefe’s team if he ran out trios of:

Thornton – Matthews – Marner

Nylander – Tavares – Arvidsson

Mikheyev – Kerfoot – Hyman

Simmonds – Boyd – Spezza

It remains to be seen who the winger Dubas has in mind is, but with the Toronto Maple Leafs already getting off a fantastic start to their season, any upgrade is going to make this team that much better.