Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking Into Every Option with Freddie Andersen
The Toronto Maple Leafs have gotten off to an incredible start to their 2020-21 season.
Sitting at 11-2-1 atop the North Division and the NHL standings, all things seem to be breaking right for this Toronto Maple Leafs team right now. Save for a stretch of bad luck injuries to locker room favourites Joe Thornton, Jack Campbell, and Wayne Simmonds, and rookie wunderkind Nick Robertson, it is hard to not love the first 14 games of the season so far.
A large portion of Toronto’s current success has to do with the bounce-back play of goaltender Frederik Andersen. He experienced his first down season with the Leafs in 2019-20, resulting in management glancing at the free-agent and trade markets for potential netminder replacements.
Ultimately, Frederik returned for his fifth season as the Leafs starter, but questions remained if Andersen would be able to prove the 2.85 goals-against average and the .909 save percentage he posted in 52 games last season was just a fluke.
After all, there is no other way to examine it: from January 1st, 2020 until the end of the regular season, Andersen was awful. Out of the 66 goalies to start at least five games during that 10-week period, Andersen had the fourth-worst 5v5 goals-against average of 3.16 and the fifth-worst 5v5 save-percentage of .897. Similarly, he had the sixth-worst goals saved above expected of -8.23. (stats; naturalstattrick, evolving-hockey).
But through his 12 starts so far this season, Andersen is looking like the elite starting goaltender then-former Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello traded for almost five years ago.
Posting the second-best goals saved above expected at 5v5 through the early going (only behind Andrei Vasilevskiy), along with a 1.81 GAA and a .936 SVP, the 2021 offseason represents an interesting career point for the first-time free agent.
Is he looking to re-sign with his current franchise? Was Kyle Dubas indicating his motivation to move on from Andersen based on last offseason’s inquiries? Let’s take a look at some possible scenarios that could play out over the next few months.
A Potential Contract Extension
The most obvious and simplest answer is for the Toronto Mapole Leafs and Andersen to find common ground and come to an agreement on a potential contract extension.
#31 has certainly proven in his time in Toronto he is a very capable starting goaltender and probably one who has not received the type of credit someone of his stature would normally deserve. The organization knows him, and meanwhile, Andersen has undoubtedly built some relationships in that Leafs locker room – he and Matthews lived together in Auston’s Arizona home during the NHL pause last summer.
The question management would surely be asking themselves is if they believe Andersen can rise to the occasion when it matters most. He has been outplayed in every playoff series with Toronto thus far and has given up some ugly goals in the process. Though to be fair, he was great against Columbus and their goalies set save percentage records.
Now, some of that could be attributed to leaky defensive structure and insufficient personnel on the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline. With a revamped backend in 2020-21 – bringing in TJ Brodie, Zach Bogosian, and the continued development of Justin Holl – and with a clear emphasis on protecting the high danger areas, maybe Andersen finally breaks through this upcoming postseason.
The other factor is Andersen’s potential asking price. He may very well play himself into Jacob Markstrom territory, where the former Canuck landed a six-year, $6 million AAV contract this past offseason.
If that is what the Andersen camp is looking for, the Leafs simply would not be able to afford it. With Hyman also needing a new deal and the upcoming Morgan Rielly negotiations in 2022, the easiest way to save cap space is net.
It remains to be seen what path the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to take, with all eyes on Andersen’s play come June and July.
Acquire a Starter Via Trade
If Toronto does decide it is time to part ways with Andersen, there could be some viable trade candidates available come August.
The most attractive name who could be available hails from the desert, in the form of Arizona Coyotes goaltender Darcy Kuemper.
It is no secret the Coyotes are one of several teams struggling from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cost-cutting measures were put into place this past offseason with the team making captain Oliver Ekman-Larsson available due to him still having over $50 million left on his eight-year deal. Kuemper, similarly, is owed $5.5 million in 2021-22.
Since the 2017-18 season, Kuemper has registered the seventh-most wins above replacement of any goaltender in the NHL, the third-most goals saved above average and the fourth-most goals saved above expected (stats; evolving-hockey).
His raw numbers in that time, among goalies to start at least 25 games:
Games Started: 119
GAA: 2.36 (4th)
SVP: .923 (2nd)
If Dubas decides Kuemper’s $4.5 million cap hit is a little too rich and he needs more spare dollars to allocate towards Hyman and eventually Rielly, the Leafs could look to acquire a new starter in a similar fashion to how they got Andersen – trade for a current backup with high upside who is blocked on their teams’ depth chart.
A name that fits that mold and is quite interesting to me is Elvis Merzlikins. Yes, he is unproven (only 36 career NHL starts) but he has shown significant promise thus far, including last year in teh playoffs, which Leafs fans most likely remember well.
In 31 starts last season, the Latvian netminder finished with a 2.35 GAA and a .923 SVP. He finished tied for 13th with Carter Hart in WAR. This season, so far, in five starts, Merzlikins has a 2.76 GAA and a .913 SVP, looking to continue building off his breakout season a year ago.
Sign a Starting Goaltender
It seems as if the free-agent market may be the least likely option for Kyle Dubas to fill his potential vacant net. There are not many intriguing options that could be available with the likes of Jordan Binnington and Phillip Grubauer leading the UFA class.
Although possible, it is highly unlikely Grubauer would look for a change of scenery with the Avalanche looking like Stanley Cup favourites and the club on the verge of a dynasty. But the Blues goalie is a little different.
Now, I will preface this by saying there has been no indication Binnington will look to move on from the St. Louis Blues organization, but I do wonder if the lure of playing close to home (Binnington was born in Richmond Hill, Ontario) could attract the 27-year-old away from Missouri.
In October of 2019, when asked what former Leaf goaltender Curtis Joseph meant to him, Binnington responded:
“I was a Leafs fan. Growing up in Toronto, you pretty much had to be. My dad put me in that goalie school for nine weeks every summer for six or seven years, and there were some days when ‘Cujo’ would come in and train there…I liked his helmet, his pads. I was a fan.”
It is possible the lure of playing at home entices Binnington to sign with Toronto?
We have seen the effect that playing in front of a hometown crowd can take on free agents in recent offseasons. John Tavares, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, and Wayne Simmonds – all from the Toronto area – all left money on the table to come home and chase a cup wearing the Blue and White.
With a cup already under his belt in his short NHL career thus far, there is no question Binnington can rise to the occasion when called upon.
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It remains to be seen how Dubas plans to handle his goaltending situation heading into the 2021-22 season. But one thing is for sure: Andersen has his destiny in his own hands. It is just a question if he can deliver when it matters most.