Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews is going to win the Hart Trophy this year.
Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews have a lot in common. They were both drafted first overall, graced the cover of EA Sports and have strutted their style in GQ. After this season is over, they’ll both have one more thing in common: Hart Trophy winners.
If you think this is a crazy thought, Vegas would agree. The last odds posted had Matthews as a 10-1 favorite to win the award. If you’re unfamiliar with gambling, a $100 bet would pay out $1000 if he wins. As a gambling man myself, I’d recommend you take that bet if you can afford it.
No player has won the Hart Trophy in back-to-back year’s since Alex Ovechkin in 2008-09 and no player has won the award twice in that timeframe as well. I was shocked when I read that because I would have assumed that McDavid or Crosby would have two Hart Trophy awards in the past decade. However, players like Evgeni Malkin, Corey Perry, Nikita Kucherov and Taylor Hall have all stolen that award away.
Personally, I think that’s going to happen again this year and here’s why.
Auston Matthews for the Hart Trophy
McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are lighting up the NHL to start the season. Even though we’re only 11 games in, it’s a lock that one of those players are going to win the Art Ross Trophy. Despite the points-clinic that’s happening in Edmonton, their team isn’t any good and it’s a 50/50 chance that they’ll make the playoffs.
Similar to the 2017-18 season, although McDavid won the Art Ross Trophy and outscored the second-best player by six points, he didn’t win the award because his team missed the playoffs. Instead, Taylor Hall won because he outscored the next player on the New Jersey Devils by 15 goals and 41 points and willed them into the playoffs.
If you don’t make the playoffs, you’re probably not going to win the award, no matter how many more points you have.
I don’t think that Matthews will end up with 40 more points than the next player on the Toronto Maple Leafs, but I do think that he’ll finish with 12-15 more goals than second-best. You may think that’s crazy, but last year he finished with 16 more goals than second-place William Nylander, so there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again.
Through 10 games, Matthews already has eight goals, which is a 70-goal pace. That’s outrageous, but I seriously think Matthews is just heating up. In those 10 games, he only has one multi-goal game. Last season, he had 10, so he’s bound to have a few games this year where he goes off and racks up the goals.
Matthews, like the rest of his division, also has the luxury of playing against the Vancouver Canucks eight more times and Ottawa Senators seven more times. As a result, I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a few hat-tricks against those abysmal defenses.
McDavid and Draisaitl may end up with more points than Matthews, but the media loves a new storyline and winner. Both of those players have already won a Hart Trophy, so it’s time to give it to the new kid on the block. If Matthews competes for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy and leads Toronto a North Division title, it’ll be hard to deny him of the MVP.
It’s been 66 years since a Toronto Maple Leafs player won the Hart Trophy. I say it doesn’t get to 67 because nobody in Toronto wants to be reminded of that number.