Justin Holl may be the most reliable defenseman on the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.
If you would have told me that 18 months ago, that Justin Holl would be the Toronto Maple Leafs best defenseman, I wouldn’t have believed you. Drafted 54th overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, it took Holl seven years to finally live out his big-league dreams. However, when that call finally happened, it came with a price.
Mike Babcock has always been known as a stubborn coach. Whether it was playing Auston Matthews limited ice-time every night or believing in Frederik Gauthier with minutes left in a playoff game, nobody could change his mind. That same logic applied to his view of Justin Holl.
Kyle Dubas believed that Holl was an NHL defenseman and could help the Leafs, but Babcock refused to play him. During the 2017-18 season, Holl was healthy scratched for 71 games, which is an outrageous amount of games.
Fortunately for Holl, Babcock was eventually fired and his former Toronto Marlies coach (Sheldon Keefe) took over. Having previously played a huge part on the Marlies Calder Cup winning roster in 2018, Keefe was very familiar with Holl and understood his skillset.
Now that Keefe is on board and the Leafs have T.J. Brodie to play with Morgan Rielly every night, Holl has slotted in nicely with Jake Muzzin as the shutdown role. Having played against the Edmonton Oilers four times already this year, the pair of Holl and Muzzin have been very good at shutting down Connor McDavid.
Holl’s even contributed nicely offensively this season with five points in 10 games. Although he’s playing great, he’s putting the Leafs in a tough situation for their Seattle Expansion Draft strategy.
Toronto Maple Leafs Could Lose Holl to Seattle
If you look at the Toronto Maple Leafs Expansion Draft strategy, they can either go with seven forwards and three defenseman or eight total players, not including one goaltender. In a heartbeat the team is already going to protect: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly and T.J. Brodie.
That knowledge would allow them to go with the seven forwards and three defenseman easily, however by the way Holl is playing, it feels like that may change things up.
Here’s what it would probably look like with both strategies:
7 Forwards & 3 Defensemen
- Auston Matthews
- Mitch Marner
- John Tavares
- William Nylander
- Alex Kerfoot
- Joey Anderson
- Adam Brooks
- Morgan Rielly
- T.J. Brodie
- Jake Muzzin
- Jack Campbell
- Key Players Exposed: Justin Holl, Michael Hutchinson, Pierre Engvall
4 Forwards and 4 Defensemen
- Auston Matthews
- Mitch Marner
- John Tavares
- William Nylander
- Morgan Rielly
- T.J. Brodie
- Jake Muzzin
- Justin Holl
- Jack Campbell
- Key Players Exposed: Alex Kerfoot, Joey Anderson, Adam Brooks, Michael Hutchinson, Pierre Engvall
By protecting Holl, it would then expose Alex Kerfoot, who Seattle would pick up right away. It’s unsure what the rest of the league’s going to look like from a defensive standpoint, but if the Leafs went with the Seven Forwards and Three Defenseman strategy, Holl would probably be Seattle’s choice instead.
As much as you’d hate to give up a player of Kerfoot’s caliber, Holl is turning into a top-four defenseman and that’s way more valuable to give up for free. So unless the Leafs are willing to give up some draft capital to keep both, one of those two players could end up in Seattle in a few months.
Regardless of what strategy they choose, this is something to seriously consider and monitor for the 2020-21 campaign because it’ll be interesting to see what happens.