3 Toronto Maple Leafs Exceeding Expectations Early

CALGARY, AB - JANUARY 24: Travis Dermott #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs in action against the Calgary Flames during an NHL game at Scotiabank Saddledome on January 24, 2021 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images)
CALGARY, AB - JANUARY 24: Travis Dermott #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs in action against the Calgary Flames during an NHL game at Scotiabank Saddledome on January 24, 2021 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images)
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TORONTO, ON – JANUARY 13: Joe Thornton #97 of the Toronto Maple Leafs  . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – JANUARY 13: Joe Thornton #97 of the Toronto Maple Leafs  . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

It has now been ten games in for the Toronto Maple Leafs 2021 season and there are a handful of players who have been exceeding expectations so far.

Through ten games the Toronto Maple Leafs have played some very good hockey which has seen them flat out dominate opponents, and then we’ve seen them win some pretty ugly nail-biting games as well.

In this article we are going to discuss three players who are exceeding expectations so far in the young season.  Players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are playing great, but we expect them to.

Today we will discuss three players who have done more than anyone thought possible.

3. Joe Thornton – 41 years old – C

2020-21 stats – 5 GP – 1 G – 1 A – 2 PTS – 67.27 CF%

Now despite Joe Thornton only playing in five out of the ten games so far through the early going of the season due to a rib injury, he has looked phenomenal nonetheless alongside two stars in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Being 41 years old there were a ton of questions as to why Sheldon Keefe decided to slot Thornton on that top line with Matthews and Marner, however, it’s looked pretty good thus far.

Although people may not like the idea of Thornton playing on the top line with two guys that play a very fast offensive game, the fact is that he’s performed well in a role that was a surprise to pretty much everyone.  And, it’s not like the Leafs don’t switch things up – while Thornton was healthy, Zach Hyman was still getting ice time on the top line, since Marner and Matthews are obviously going to get more ice  time than the 41 year old Thornton.

Through five games Thornton has one goal and one assist which he recorded in the same game against the Ottawa Senators as the Toronto Maple Leafs picked up a 3-2 win on the road. Yes, two points in five games might not be eye-opening to a lot of people but remember the man is 41 years old and only averaging around 15 minutes a night.

If you want to take a deeper dive into how well Thornton has played as a Maple Leaf through five games, he currently leads the team in two of these three pretty major analytics categories, which are 67.27 CF%, 50.00 GF%, and a 61.41 xGF%.

Those numbers might be very good for the 41-year-old, however, he has only played 62:27 total minutes compared to other teammates so that’s why his numbers remain this high, but nonetheless, his numbers are good and he has looked good on the ice as well.

He is also slotted on the team’s first powerplay unit with Matthews, Marner, Simmonds, and Rielly so he can boost his individual scoresheet numbers as well. The Leafs are definiteily looking forward to Thornton returning as soon as possible. (Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com)

CALGARY, AB – JANUARY 24: Travis Dermott #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images)
CALGARY, AB – JANUARY 24: Travis Dermott #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images) /

2. Travis Dermott – 24 years old – D

2020-21 stats – 8 GP – 0 G – 0 A – 0 PTS – 54.94 CF%

Travis Dermott, who signed a very cheap one-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs back in the off-season is looking to prove to people that he is worth a decent amount of money for his next contract. Although he hasn’t dressed for all ten of the Maple Leafs games, he has played in eight of them and has looked really good thus far given a small amount of ice-time.

Dermott has been paired alongside noted tough guy Zach Bogosian on the third pairing and they both have done a good job at limiting opponents to capitalize on chances and ultimately goals. Dermott currently ranks top five in three analytics categories on the Maple Leafs and they are a 54.94 CF%, 75.00 GF%, and a 52.15 xGF% which is all above 50 so that is a good sign, especially when you’re trying to fight to secure a spot in the lineup.

The pairing of Dermott and Bogosian has also been one of the better third pairings in the NHL with a minimum of 50 minutes played. As of February 1st, the pairing ranks 9th in the NHL with a 57.41 CF%, rank 21st with a 66.67 GF%, and lastly, they rank 41st with a 53.13 xGF%. Given only 58:07 minutes of ice-time together, they have been a pretty reliable pairing for the Toronto Maple Leafs so far.

Dermott has put up some pretty good advanced numbers through eight games but on the actual scoresheet, he has nothing to show as he has zero goals and zero assists which definitely sucks for the 24-year-old defensemen as like I said before, he’s trying to solidify a spot on this team’s top six.

The main reason why I think Dermott is still pointless in the early season is that his ice-time is way down low from seasons prior when he sometimes got looks in the Maple Leafs top four, but that was when they had a very inconsistent top four and sometimes needed a little juggling on the back end. His ice-time in his first three seasons were between 16:00 minutes and 17:19 minutes, this season he is all the way down to only averaging 11:19 minutes per night.

He doesn’t see any power-play time and he doesn’t see any penalty-kill time, so it’ll be pretty hard to see his minutes increase unless Keefe decides to shed some minutes off the top four and hand a little bit more to Dermott and Bogosian because they have done a pretty decent job so far when on the ice.

TORONTO, ON – JANUARY 18: Justin Holl #3 of the Toronto Maple Leafs  (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – JANUARY 18: Justin Holl #3 of the Toronto Maple Leafs  (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

1. Justin Holl – 29 years old – D

2020-21 stats – 10 GP – 0 G – 5 A – 5 PTS – 55.56 CF%

What a story it has been as well as the journey for defensemen Justin Holl. From being drafted over ten years ago, to playing in the ECHL, to playing in the AHL, and even being a healthy scratch for the majority of a couple of NHL seasons, he is now a key piece to the Toronto Maple Leafs top four on the back end.

The 29-year-old is now in his second full NHL season with the Maple Leafs and has been on an absolute whole other level with the way he is playing through ten games so far. He has been by the far the team’s best defensemen in what seems like all three zones, and for someone who is known for being more defensive, he has actually helped generate some scoring chances and has chipped in offensively on the scoresheet too.

He is currently on the second pair alongside Jake Muzzin and they act as the team’s shutdown pairing which sees them go up against the opponent’s top players every night. Although Jake Muzzin hasn’t been playing the best hockey to start the season, Holl has carried the weight of the load and they have been one of the league’s best defensive pairings with a minimum of 50 minutes played at 5v5.

Holl alone ranks top five in all three advanced analytics categories of CF%, GF%, and xGF% on the Toronto Maple Leafs. He has a 55.56 CF%, 61.54 GF%, and a 58.53 xGF% which is all amazing for a guy who is currently considered the number 3/4 guy on this team.

Analyzing the Play of the Leafs Big 4 So Far. dark. Next

The pairing of Muzzin and Holl has seen a lot of top competition through ten games and as a pairing, they have done their job so far. As of February 1st, the pairing currently ranks 13th in the league with a 56.42 CF%, rank 28th with a 60.00 GF%, and lastly, they rank 15th with a 57.75 xGF%. All of those numbers are pretty good given that they’re all ranked in at least the top 30 and the fact that there are numerous amounts of different defense pairings around the league.

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