How Have the Toronto Maple Leafs Big Four Performed So Far?

John Tavares

Tavares is third on the Leafs with 14 individual 5v5 shots and a bizarrely unlucky ZERO PERCENT shooting percentage.  That is right – no 5v5 goals for Johnny T yet.

This is exhibit A in why the Leafs record is a) so lucky and b) not likely to crash and burn despite the luck.  I mean, you won’t always get so lucky, but you will make up for that by having two of the NHL’s best 5v5 goal scorers actually start to score goals.

Luckily, Tavares does have four PP goals and 5 PP points in total.  He’s got eight points in eight games despite being snakebitten at 5v5.

To truly appreciate Tavares’ game, you’ve got to look at the on-ice numbers.  On-ice numbers for some reason get called “advanced” but they are really basic – essentially they are just a differential of how the team performs with the player on the ice.   It’s really common sense based stuff too, if your team gets more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances or goals than the other team when you play, it’s probably a sign that you are playing well.

Tavares has a 52% puck possession rating (shot attempts aka Corsi)  this is 5th among Leafs forwards who’ve played 8 games. The Leafs are splitting the shots evenly when Tavares plays, and getting slightly more scoring chances.  Overall, he’s still got a negative expected goals rating, which is probably because of the zero goals thing – I don’t think he’s actually hurting the team with his play or anything.

I ranked Marner lower than Tavares in terms of overall play, but that is strictly because Tavares doesn’t get to play with Matthews.  Both could use some improvement in their 5v5 games.