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How Have the Toronto Maple Leafs Big Four Performed So Far?

By James Tanner

TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 25: William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Kevin Shattenkirk #22 of the Tampa Bay Lightning fight for the puck during a game at Amalie Arena on February 25, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 25: William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Kevin Shattenkirk #22 of the Tampa Bay Lightning fight for the puck during a game at Amalie Arena on February 25, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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Toronto Maple Leafs
EDMONTON, AB – JANUARY 28: Adam Larsson #6 of the Edmonton Oilers battles against Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Codie McLachlan/Getty Images) /

Auston Matthews Play Analysis

Matthews has five goals and nine points in eight games.  This is more than a 50 goal pace despite the fact that he’s shooting under 10% 5v5 when his career shooting percentage is closer to 15%.

You’d really like to see Matthews get more assists, but those are bound to come.  The scary thing is that the 50 goal pace is now expected, and we can clearly see there’s goal-per-game potential there.  Matthews is hands down the best player in Toronto Maple Leafs history, from a talent perspective at least.

The crazy thing about Auston Matthews is that he really shooting just 4.7% if you don’t count the goal he scored off his foot that didn’t even shoot into the net.  Dating back to his playoff performance last year (which was spectacular but he was stone-cold unlucky) he has two goals on 42 shots (again, ignoring the fluke goal), which is still 4.7 %

Matthews has been the NHL’s best 5v5 goal scorer since (literally) his first game in the NHL (he scored four times, if you recall).  He is, roughly, a 15% career shooter, so we can all-but guarantee that this unlucky streak will eventually reverse course.

Once this happens – and it will certainly happen – the Toronto Maple Leafs become a much more difficult team to face.

So far this season Matthews has a 56% puck possession rating (very high) and the Leafs are getting 53% of the shots when he’s on the ice. 60% of the scoring chances, 55% of the dangerous scoring chances. And yet,   Matthews expected goals is down to 51% from last year’s 55%.

He’s been unlucky, Thornton got injured (the line was DOMINANT early), and there was an injury. Overall I wouldn’t be too concerned and would expect the expected-goals numbers to rise quite a bit.

To put into perspective how good Matthews is, consider that he is over a point-per-game, and one off the league lead in total goals, but we are seriously saying that he is a) not playing his absolute best (his numbers are crazy good, but historically, he’s got another level) and b) getting significantly unlucky.

Look out goalies!

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