Justin Holl: From the ECHL to the Toronto Maple Leafs Blueline

The Babcock Effect and the Breakout Season

In the 2018-19 season, the Leafs opening night blueline looked as follows:

Rielly-Hainsey

Gardiner-Zaitsev

Dermott-Ozhiganov

Holl began the season as a healthy scratch, but with the uncertainties of how Zaitsev and Ozhiganov would fit on Toronto’s blueline, it seemed as if #3 would be called upon regularly. But the apparent discontent between coach Babcock and GM Dubas filtered into several lineup decisions including opting to deploy the ineffective Marincin many times over the clearly more skilled Holl.

When the final buzzer rang to conclude the Toronto Maple Leafs regular season, Holl only managed to suit up in 11 games for the team. Personally, it felt as if Holl could be following down the same path as fellow teammate Josh Leivo and request a trade out of Toronto due to a lack of playing time.

That being said, Dubas kept onto his guy and Holl destroyed expectations as a lineup regular last season. Forming the Leafs’ best defensive pairing alongside Jake Muzzin, the duo registered a 56.7% expected goals percentage, 56.8% Corsi-for percentage, and 56% Fenwick-for percentage (stats; moneypuck.com).

The narrative surrounding Holl was he was being propped up by Muzzin and when Muzzin went down, Holl began to struggle. However, Holl’s second-half stats actually improved last season. His expected goals for percentage went up from the 71st percentile to the 89th percentile. xGA jumped from the 46th percentile to 70th. Overall, his xG+/- progressed from the 67th percentile to the 90th percentile (stats, JFresh).