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The Betting Odds of the Maple Leafs Winning the Canadian Division

By Michael Da Ponte

TORONTO, ONTARIO - JULY 28: The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens line up for the Canadian national anthem before an exhibition game prior to the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on July 28, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Freestyle Photo/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - JULY 28: The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens line up for the Canadian national anthem before an exhibition game prior to the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on July 28, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Freestyle Photo/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a rare situation, as the odds on favourite to win  their division.

After a disappointing season last year, the Toronto Maple Leafs are primed to have success in 2021. They will get a full season under their new coach, they’ve supplemented their team with a massive amount of talent (Mikko Lehtonen, T.J Brodie, Nick Robertson, Joe Thornton) while losing almost nothing.

The Leafs will also get a huge bonus by moving out of the insanely competitive Atlantic Division into the much weaker Canadian Division.

I think it is safe to say that we all expect the North Division – aka the Canadian Division  – to be full of entertaining, high scoring games throughout the season.  It’s also safe to say that the Leafs are the best team in this division.

Toronto Maple Leafs are the Favorites

The current betting lines and regular season win totals have the Toronto Maple Leafs as the clear cut heavy favorite, though I think that may not be giving the other Canadian teams enough credit. As it currently stands the Leafs are at the top of the list to win the division:

Toronto +140
Edmonton +350
Vancouver +550
Montreal +650
Calgary +700
Winnipeg +700
Ottawa +5000 (all odds from oddshark.com). 

The gap between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the next closest team – Edmonton Oilers – is quite wide, while the rest of the teams are separated by only a small margin. The Leafs are projected to have 74.5 points this season while Edmonton is only projected at 65.5, Vancouver and Calgary at 62.5, Montreal at 66.5, Winnipeg at 60.5 and Ottawa sitting in the basement at 43.5.

An 8-9 point difference from the Leafs to the next closest team is a lot of hype for the Leafs to live up to. The other Canadian teams are all decent enough, but the Leafs have the most elite talent, and are probably the deepest team as well.

The Maple Leafs should undoubtedly be the favorites to win the division, but it will not be an easy feat. Montreal and Ottawa made additions to their teams that will make them much more difficult to play against. Vancouver may have lost a couple of key players but their young superstars in Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Quinn Hughes will be a year older and gained some valuable experience in their bubble playoff run. Winnipeg and Calgary have plenty of elite talent of their own up front and in the net. Edmonton did not address their most glaring weakness, goaltending, during the offseason but a team with McDavid and Draisaitl will be dangerous every night.

Taking a chance on the Leafs at +140 may not be worth the bet, although I would be willing to take the over on 74.5 points. A team such as Winnipeg at +700 may be worth a shot considering the parity in this division and the fact that they have the reigning Vezina winner.

Next. Leafs Top 10 Prospects. dark

The fact is all teams not named Senators have a chance to finish at the top of this division. However, if the Toronto Maple Leafs additions on defense can manage to stifle the cycle and get the puck out of their zone safely, perhaps a 9+ point division win is within reason.

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