Toronto Maple Leafs: Re-Thinking Joe Thornton on the Top Line

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed NHL Legend Joe Thornton to a one-year contract this past off-season.

When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Joe Thonton, I was ecstatic.  Not only is he an awesome player and an even better person, but he’s an ageless wonder whose enthusiasm for the game alone is worth the price of the contract.

I was, and remain, a little trepidatious  about the fact that NHL coaches tend to overplay players like this, use them too high in the lineup, and refuse to demote them at the expense of better, younger players. (See Marleau, Patrick and Babcock, Mike) but the risk/reward here is obviously positive.

It was this concern – and perhaps a little too much cynicism – that led me to scoff at the surprise announcement that Joe Thornton would be playing left-wing on the Leafs top line this season.

However, reflection has brought me around to the idea, and I’ll tell you why.

Toronto Maple Leafs Top Line

When Thornton was first signed, I did a bit of a statistical analysis of what he brings and the results were shocking.  For one, he was worth 3 wins at age 39, making him an elite player that was better than 90% of the NHL.  That is crazy.

Last year, he was worth 0.3 wins, but that was really suppressed because of an extremely unlucky shooting percentage. Thornton may have declined with age, but his mind is still sharp and when speed isn’t a factor, he crushes it, as seen by the fact that last season he was still better than 90% of the league (actual number) on the PP.

A line of Matthews and Marner is going to have the puck A LOT, especially under Keefe’s system which focuses on puck possession.  This system isn’t particularly fond of rushes or long breakout passes, and so If this is the case, Thornton just has to avoid going off-side and he can put his amazing passing skills to the test.

That is the first reason why I’ve reconsidered about Joe on the first line.  The second is because of the Leafs third line.

Mikheyev – Kerfoot – Hyman gives the Leafs a straight up checking line, but not a traditional one.  By defensive metrics, not reputation, Hyman isn’t really a strong defensive player.  Most of his value comes from his ability to forecheck and cycle the puck.

Neither Kerfoot or Mikheyev are traditional defensive players (i.e players who check and block shots, and thus earn a reputation for being good defensively) but both players are fast and tend to lower the amount of shots and puck possession the other team gets. (stats evolving-hockey.com).

Kerfoot is a truly elite defensive player who has tons of speed and can score. This is a very fast line that can handle tough minutes and give the Toronto Maple Leafs a defensive anchor to use when necessary, and hopefully to free up the Matthews line to play against worse lines on the other team.

And this is why the Leafs should use Thornton on the first line, and why I’ve completely changed my mind.  Now Jimmy Vesey on line two? Let’s see how that goes, but I wouldn’t count Robertson or Barabanov out from taking that role.