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The Toronto Maple Leafs on the Verge of Breaking Curse, Ending Streak

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ONTARIO - AUGUST 09: Nick Foligno #71 of the Columbus Blue Jackets scores a empty net goal at 19:37 as Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Qualification Round prior to the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on August 09, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Freestyle Photo/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ONTARIO - AUGUST 09: Nick Foligno #71 of the Columbus Blue Jackets scores a empty net goal at 19:37 as Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs looks on in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Qualification Round prior to the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on August 09, 2020 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/Freestyle Photo/Getty Images) /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup in 1967.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been the least successful franchise in the post-expansion era of the NHL.  They haven’t even had a major award winner, scoring title, or appearance in the Final, let alone hoist the actual Cup.

The Leafs fans have been forced to watch as expansion team after expansion team embarrasses them with their success.  The Leafs haven’t been successful since the NHL opened up to international players and the Mircowave was a device out of a Philip K Dick story.

It’s rather pathetic.  But you will no longer have to memorize the names of players who played before TV was invented, and who are older than your great grandfather.

And that is because success in modern times is on the verge of happening.  Sure, bad results from last year have made people underrate the current team, but no team in the league is deeper or has more elite talent.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the verge of winning the Stanley Cup.

Leafs in 2021

After 1993, when the Leafs turned a first-round upset into a Final Four run, the Leafs acquired Dave Andreychuck and where briefly a contender.  In Mats Sundins prime (the best player to ever where the Blue and White) the Leafs had a run as contenders between 1999 and the 2005 lockout.

But at no time where either of those teams this good.

This team is special, and the fact that Matthews is hitting his peak just as the Leafs get moved into the easiest possible division is a fantastic break that should see the team challenge for a league record points-percentage.

And  you don’t have to take my word for it, listen to what Dom Luszczyszyn from the Athletic has to say, and keep in mind that his conclusion is based entirely on objective math.

"They [the other Canadian teams] are all good teams, but they’ll likely be spending the year fighting with each other for the distinction of being the second best team in Canada.That’s because the best team in Canada is Toronto, and it’s not particularly close."

Dom projects the Leafs to win the division by six points, and says they have a 94% chance to make the playoffs, the second highest in the NHL.  That six points is an absolutely massive gap in a cap league with full parity playing a shortened season.

Using math that I don’t understand, but which is a lot more reliable than anyone’s opinion, Dom says the Leafs are the fourth most likely team to win the Cup.  In my opinion, Dom is the best writer covering the NHL today and I found it extremely vindicating to read his season preview and see that was saying all the things I’ve been saying over the last year.

Basically, that the Leafs were one of the NHL’s best teams after Keefe took over, and that only bad goaltending weighed them down. Heck, Dom even points out that the Leafs are correct to spend have their salary cap on just four players.

"That’s why being paid half the cap isn’t exactly a detriment to winning, as long as the rest of the cap is spent wisely, something a majority of teams in the league fail at. It’s unconventional, but just because it hasn’t worked yet, doesn’t mean it won’t."

Sound familiar, dear readers? Worth pointing out that the Leafs are by far the best team at finding quality players at or near the league minimum and that they are the only team in the entire league without a bad contract. 

I hate to use three quotes, but he said this too:

"Matthews is at the top with a projected value of 4.6 wins; that’s not only the best in Toronto, it’s the best in the league"

The bottom line is this: Last year the Toronto Maple Leafs suffered through the bad luck trifecta of injuries, bad goaltending, and the most improbable “goalie-ing” in NHL history, and this has caused people to have the wrong view about this team.

Next. Best Team Ever?. dark

The Leafs are on the verge of the best season most of us will ever witness. I believe they are on the verge of breaking the Ballard Curse, and that they will end the NHL’s longest streak of futility by absolutely destroying the competition and winning the Stanley Cup.

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