Toronto Maple Leafs: Analyzing Auston Matthews Hart Trophy Chances

In the 2016-17 season Auston Matthews became the first member of the Toronto Maple Leafs in over 50 years to win the Calder Trophy as the National Hockey League’s top rookie.

In the 2020-21 season Matthews will have an opportunity to become the first Toronto Maple Leafs player in over 60 years to take come the Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL MVP.

I believe Matthews is in a prime position to take this opportunity and make the most of it while simultaneously making Leafs history. If you are looking for a solid futures bet look no further than Auston Matthews for Hart (+900* from oddsshark.com).

Several factors will determine his candidacy for the league MVP including: the season success of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the potential linemates of Matthews and how they affect his own goal and point production, and the top competition for the Hart Trophy around the league.

Potential Linemates:

Last year Matthews had several different linemates flanking him on the Leafs number one line. The beginning of the season under Mike Babcock, which seems like years ago now, saw Matthews playing mostly with William Nylander on his right wing and Andreas Johnsson on the left.

He found success early on scoring eight goals in his first ten games. The second line, with John Tavares and Mitch Marner, struggled to start and teams were able to focus their defense on Matthews’ line. Matthews only managed six goals in the next 13 games before Mike Babcock was   fired.

Sheldon Keefe took over for the final 47 games of the season and Matthews saw more time with Marner and Hyman, which provided a huge uptick in production. Over the final 47 games playing mostly with Marner and Hyman, Matthews scored 33 goals and 20 assists. Extrapolated over a 56 game schedule as the 2021 season is that would see a 40 goal and 23 assist season. (Stats nhl.com). 

Matthews is just entering the prime of his career and it would not be inconceivable for his production to increase with a full season under Keefe’s coaching.  Tavares should be expected to have a bounce back year as well which will force teams to spread out the defensive help over the two top lines and give Matthews some favorable matchups. Matthews will easily hit over 40 goals and 70+ points which will put him right at the top with the NHL elite.

League Competition:

The last couple of seasons there have been three names that dominated MVP talks and will be the front runners for the Trophy this season. Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are undoubtedly the favourites to be Hart Trophy finalists for the 2020-21 season.

All three have averaged close to or over 100 points per season over the last two seasons and have seen their teams success elevated in that span. This production in points does not show any sign of slowing down and over a 56 game season they would be in the 70-75 point range easily. We have already determined Auston Matthews should be in the 70+ point range which would put him in contention for the Art Ross Trophy.

Four of the last five Hart Trophy winners took home the Art Ross that same season by scoring the most points in the league. Being at the top of the points list could go a long way for Matthews in securing a Hart Trophy this season. The North Division looks like it could have a lot of high scoring games and Matthews could find himself in a points race with McDavid and Draisaitl all season. Points alone, however, will not be the only indicator used to measure a players value to their team. This award is, after all, the NHL’s Most Valuable Player and that value to their team is directly correlated to their team’s season success.

Toronto Maple Leafs Success:

The Toronto Maple Leafs are the favorites to win their division this season (+153 ) for the first time in almost 20 years. If the Leafs can establish dominance over the North Division and put themselves among the top 4 teams in the league the spotlight will shine right on its brightest superstar, Auston Matthews.

Nikita Kucherov won the Hart two seasons ago by not only being at the top of the league in scoring but by being on a record breaking, Presidents Trophy winning team. MacKinnon has seen the spotlight on him the last few seasons after he brought the Colorado Avalanche out of the leagues basement and into Cup contention. And McDavid and Draisaitl have made Edmonton one of the more exciting teams to watch over the last three or four seasons.

Great team success and elevating a teams position in the league standings from year to year plays a large part in bringing a player into the Hart Trophy conversation. Colorado winning their division will not be a surprise considering their odds (+150*), and the fact that they have been at or near the top of their division the last two years.

Unless Edmonton wins the North Division (+330 odds*), simply making the playoffs will not put McDavid and Draisaitl over the top. The Toronto Maple Leafs are poised to make some history and break some records this year while bringing home plenty of hardware. Matthews should be prominently displaying a Hart Memorial Trophy in his trophy case by the end of the season and with any luck a Conn Smythe directly beside it.