The Toronto Maple Leafs started training camp this year with a surprise announcement.
Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe announced Sunday that recently signed free-agent Joe Thornton would start at left wing on the Leafs first line.
It’s a nice thought, and it’s cool that the coach wants to be respectful of the veteran centre (who is actually one year older than the coach) but it is in no way realistic. Thornton is still a decent enough player (likely because his game was never based on speed) but he’ s 41 years old and has no business on the first line of any team, let alone one trying to win the Stanley Cup.
It’s a fun story, but it’s not (likely) happening.
Thornton on the First Line
Sheldon Keefe is a line mixer, and he’s not likely going to keep any line together permanently, let alone one he dreams up before the team even hits the ice.
I remember a recently fired coach who tried to play a 40 year old former San Jose Sharks legend on the first line, and I remember how that worked out: about as well as 40 year old Ron Hainsey on the top pairing. (As in, it was an unqualified disaster). (Stats from naturalstattrick.com).
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a recent history of overplaying veteran players out of respect, and it’s backfired every time. The Leafs are also a team built on a foundation of statistical analysis and I guarantee you they know 100% just how bad of an idea this actually is.
Thornton is a full five years removed from his last quality first-line season, and while a career renaissance is completely possible, he’s not going to go from a fourth liner to a first liner at age 41.
Then again, what do I know? The guy is a legend and the coach is vastly more informed than I am. Even just by looking at stats I can tell you that Joe Thornton has never, not even once, finished a season with a negative possession rating.
Last year in San Jose, he played limited, but successful, minutes with Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier a Evander Kane, so it’s not impossible that he would thrive with Matthews and Marner, it’s just that it’s highly unlikely that that is the best combo the Leafs can manage.
Last year, word leaked out that William Nylander would like to play left wing, and a Nylander-Matthews-Marner combo is what the Leafs should be doing. Even if they don’t want to stack the lines, everyone from Zach Hyman to Alex Kerfoot to the newly acquired Alex Barabanov is probably a better choice than Big Joe for first line duty.
The cynic in me says this is just a nice touch by the coach, but that we’d likely never see this in a real game. The realist in me says that the Leafs have better options. That said, the romantic in me would like nothing more than to see Thornton thrive on the Toronto Maple Leafs top line.
When the Leafs signed Thornton (and Simmonds and Bogosian) I was worried that their former prestige would lead to their being played too highly in the lineup. This was the downfall of Mike Babcock and I hope Keefe knows better, although if it works, it works.