10 Toronto Maple Leafs Prognostications for the 2021 Season
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a very interesting position heading into this season.
Being one of the very few teams that had sufficient funds to go out and significantly upgrade various positions on their roster, the Leafs had the unique ability to head into 2021 one of the most drastically changed teams.
Kyle Dubas and Co. managed to navigate the rough economic situation of the National Hockey League as a whole, while simultaneously bolstering their defense, augmenting their bottom-six forward group with different elements, and give starter Frederik Andersen some healthy competition behind him.
It was an incredibly difficult needle to thread; one that could only be done in the one-of-a-kind offseason we witnessed in 2020.
Bringing in TJ Brodie will surely be the biggest addition to this roster, and the off-ice contributions of Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, and Zach Bogosian will undoubtedly benefit tremendously. I, for one, am looking forward to the ripple effects these overwhelmingly positive moves will have on this team.
Now, with under a week until training camp starts, let’s take a look at 10 offseason predictions I have for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Prediction #1: Nick Robertson Gets His Six-Game Audition and Never Leaves
After dominating the OHL in the 2019-20 season, head coach Sheldon Keefe rewarded the 19-year-old with his first taste of NHL action in the Toronto Maple Leafs return to play this past summer. Just like any teenager making their playoff debut, there were some growing pains, but even so, Robertson still showed he has taken the necessary steps in his development and proved he can handle NHL minutes.
This season, the Leafs 2019 second-round pick will be battling several new faces for a roster spot in the team’s top 12. Jimmy Vesey, Alexander Barabanov, Pierre Engvall, and Joey Anderson all figure to give Robertson the toughest competition.
Although, there is one thing working in Robertson’s favour. PNHLe, a modern analytical prospect gauging tool, is defined as:
An offensive stat that is used to project a player’s point potential at the NHL level and is meant to standardize a variety of leagues so that prospects can be compared from one league with another. PNHLe attempts to equalize all leagues, age and positions so that the offensive potential of a prospect can easily be compared with others, while also projecting future NHL point potential in the prime years of a player (source; nhlrankking.com).
At Dobber Prospects, their PNHLe rankings from one to five are as follows: Quinton Byfield, Alexis Lafrenière, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, and Nick Robertson. Robertson ranks above 2020 13th overall pick Seth Jarvis, 24th overall pick Connor Zary, and above 6th overall pick Jamie Drysdale.
That type of talent is hard to keep on the sidelines. Keefe has the option to give Robertson his six games before the first year of his entry-level contract kicks in, but I predict his audition is going to go so well that it will force the Toronto Maple Leafs coaching staff to keep him on their roster permanently.
Prediction #2: In an All-Canadian Division, the Flames Regret Losing Brodie
The Leafs biggest offseason acquisition came in the form of inking former Calgary Flames defensemen TJ Brodie, to a four-year, $5 million AAV contract.
In a normal year, the two franchises would only face-off against each other twice. With Brodie in a different conference, the sting from recognizing the absence of their former defensemen would be minimal. Out of sight, out of mind.
However, in this unprecedented 2021 season, the Leafs and Flames are scheduled to face each other nine times. That is a lot of reminding of the days when Brodie was playing for your team instead of the opposition.
Brodie as a Flame was one of the premier two-way defensemen in the NHL. The Ontario native ranked in the 97th percentile and the 91st percentile in secondary assist and estimated shot assists rates respectively last season (stats; mapleleafshotstove.com).
But his calling card is his fantastic defensive game. Brodie’s play driving is excellent, specifically his expected goals against suppression, ranking in the 89th percentile league-wide. He also ranks in the 85th percentile in heavy ice time facing elite forwards and logs a ton of minutes in the defensive end – for his career, Brodie has started 52% of his faceoffs in the defensive end (stats; hockey-referece.com).
For what it is worth, Toronto’s best defensive defensemen, Jake Muzzin, has started 52% of his faceoffs in the defensive end in his career with Toronto. While some of the offseason moves Calgary GM Brad Treliving made were extremely positive, Flames fans are going to have trouble getting over the loss of TJ Brodie.
Prediction #3: Jack Campbell Will Get A Lot More Starts Than We Think
Never before in Frederik Andersen’s Toronto Maple Leafs career has his grip on the starters’ net been so loose. Over the last few seasons, the team’s backups were mostly Curtis McElhinney, Garret Sparks, and Michael Hutchinson. None were ever real threats to taking the number one job from the Danish netminder.
If the Leafs faith in Campbell’s game proves to be true, Keefe will almost certainly lower Andersen’s start count, especially in a shortened season. Probably to a level we have never seen before.
In Andersen’s first three seasons with the Leafs, he started 66, 66, and 60 games. This past season, having started 52 of his team’s 70 games, Andersen was on pace for just under 61 starts again. That kind of heavy workload could be playing a major factor in his playoff failures. In that case, the Leafs must find out if reducing Andersen’s regular season minutes could lead to playoff success.
The other pressing matter is Andersen’s history of being a notoriously slow starter. For the month of October, Andersen has managed a 3.17 goals-against average and an .898 save-percentage in his career with the Leafs. That type of stumble out of the gate is unacceptable in a 56-game shortened season. Where every game could be a four-point swing against a divisional opponent, an extended slump cannot happen in 2020-21.
Should Andersen’s rough 2019-20 season continue to leak into 2020-21, expect Keefe to ride the hot hand and reward Campbell with the starters net.
Prediction #4: This is One of Holl or Dermott’s Last Season with the Leafs
As much as it is redundant to worry about the 2021 offseason instead of focusing on this campaign ahead, lurking in the shadows is a daunting event that could spell the end of a Maple Leaf career for a fan favourite. The Seattle Expansion Draft is currently scheduled for July 21st, 2021, and between now and then, Kyle Dubas and Co. need to find out what they have in Justin Holl and Travis Dermott.
You have to think if the Leafs go with the 7-3-1 protection approach, Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, and Jake Muzzin would be the three protected defensemen, leaving Dermott and Holl exposed. Similarly, if the team goes with the 4-4-1 approach, protecting Rielly, Brodie, and Muzzin again, only one of the Dermott and Holl could fill the remaining spot, with both in constant competition for it over the course of the season.
There is also the chance the Leafs look for a steadier blueliner to fill the fourth spot alongside Muzzin. If Holl cannot repeat his breakout 2019-20 season, Mikko Lehtonen does not adjust to NHL competition smoothly, and Dermott and Sandin do not prove to be ready for top-four minutes, we could see a scenario where Toronto is forced to acquire another defensemen to fill the top-four void.
This could then result in the team wanting to move on from both Holl and Dermott. The 2020-21 season could be make or break for both of these two players. With so much uncertainty heading into the season, no two players’ destinies are tied together more on this roster than the two defensemen.
Prediction #5: John Tavares and Mitch Marner Dominate Playing Together Again
The duo of Tavares and Marner was unstoppable in the Leafs captain’s first stint with his hometown franchise. With Zach Hyman as the third member to round out the trio, of all forward lines to play at least 600 minutes together, that threesome ranked fourth in expected goals percentage at 55.1% and also finished tops in the league in expected goals for, creating scoring chances virtually at will together (stats; moneypuck.com).
It is no wonder both Tavares and Marner finished with the best seasons of their careers. The Oakville, Ontario native ended with 47 goals and 88 points, with the former London Knight finishing with 94 points himself.
With the coaching staff giving more looks to the Matthews-Marner twosome last year, Tavares was not able to build off the prior season. Although he did deal with a finger injury for some portion of the season, Tavares just did not look like his old self even when healthy in 2019-20.
On pace for 34 goals and 78 points over the course of a full season, it became apparent the newly formed Tavares-Nylander duo did not gel as smoothly as the Tavares-Marner pair did. It could be reasonable to assume Marner’s play suffered as well.
Although Marner dealt with several other issues as well (missed four weeks with an ankle sprain, lengthy contract saga), he was still on pace for 93 points, one off his career-high. However, many times his play looked disengaged and lethargic.
This year, look for Sheldon Keefe to reunite the former linemates in hopes to re-establish the duo as the transcendent force they used to be.
Prediction #6: Zach Hyman is Resigned
Since the 2017-18 season, Hyman ranks fifth among all Toronto Maple Leafs forwards in total points, only behind the “Big Four”. If you factor out powerplay and penalty kill points and only look at even-strength points, Hyman climbs to fourth on the team (stats; NHL.com).
While his 5v5 play has been tremendous over the last three seasons, Hyman’s real value lies in his shorthanded capabilities. Among forwards who played the entirety of the past three seasons with Toronto, no forward comes close to matching the former Michigan Wolverine’s 473 minutes of penalty kill time on ice. Kasperi Kapanen ranks second at only 280 minutes.
Similarly, while looking at the advanced analytics as well, Hyman ranked fifth among all forwards in expected goals-above-replacement, once again only behind the Leafs “Big Four”, while finishing third in expected shorthanded defense last season. Hyman also finished third in expected goals-for percentage in 2019-20, performing as a driving force alongside Auston Matthews for most of the season (stats; evolving-hockey).
It is hard to quantify just how much Hyman means to Toronto due to his tremendous value in areas where he is unmeasurable. His dedication to being the hardest worker night in and night and positive presence in the locker room makes it difficult to forecast a reasonable contract extension.
However, being from Toronto and refusing to play anywhere else, I find it had to believe Hyman would not exhaust all options and try and work out a long-term contract with the Leafs. If he repeats his stellar play from a year ago, expect a deal to be announced before the end of the 2020-21 season.
Prediction #7: This is Frederik Andersen’s Last Year with the Leafs
With four first-round exits already under his belt in his career with the Toronto Maple Leafs, 2020-21 may prove to be Andersen’s most important thus far. While the early playoff exits cannot be solely blamed on the goalie, it is hard to say Andersen has been incredible in any series so far.
It has just seemed as if Andersen has been unable to rise to the occasion for Toronto, which is what lead to management exploring a different look in net for this upcoming season. Now, I do believe the Andersen we saw in the 2019-20 regular season will not be the one we see in 2020-21.
A lot of factors played into the perfect storm that was 2019-20 and the team struggled as a whole. It is hard to envision Andersen not bouncing back, but in any case, his future with the Leafs is not dependant on his work in the regular season. Come playoff time, Andersen holds full control over his destiny.
But even so, I see one of two scenarios playing out and in both, Andersen does not remain a Leaf following this season. One, Andersen has an extremely productive year and is able to secure a long-term contract along the lines of the Jacob Markstrom deal this past offseason where the former Canuck landed six-years at $6 million AAV. At this price tag, Andersen most likely becomes too expensive for the Leafs and the team looks for another option elsewhere.
Or two, Andersen does not have a rebound season and struggles again. In this case, he is unable to secure the long-term contract and instead has to settle for a short-term deal. If Toronto cannot win with him again, Dubas would then look for another option elsewhere.
Regardless, 2020-21 is an extremely important one for the Danish netminder. At the same time, it could very well be his last with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Prediction #8: William Nylander Continues His Upward Trajectory
One of the very few bright spots of 2019-20 was William Nylander’s fantastic season.
Putting up 31 goals and 59 points in 68 games, Nylander set career highs virtually across the board. When the team struggled to find offense some nights, Keefe often turned to Nylander to be the difference maker and be the spark the team needed (stat; NHL.com).
Nylander also finished with a higher goals above replacement rating than Blake Wheeler, Patrick Kane, and Tyler Seguin (stats; evolving-hockey.com).
Similarly, the narrative surrounding the Swede of being strictly a perimeter player was squashed this past season with Nylander finishing as a league leader in net-front goals. The winger racked up the 8th most individual high danger chances for, showing he is not afraid to get into the dirty areas (stats; naturalstattrick.com).
Solidifying himself as a premier offensive producer this past season, Nylander was on pace for 37 goals had the team played a full 82-game season. It is not of the question that should he keep improving, Nylander could enter the exclusive 40-goal club.
Although 40 goals will be extremely difficult to hit in a shortened season, my prediction is Nylander scores at that pace in 2021. With him growing as a player each year and the shaky defense of most teams in the Canadian division, Nylander should be able to build off his career year.
Prediction #9: Sheldon Keefe is nominated for the 2020-21 Jack Adams Award
A lot was made of the Toronto Maple Leafs coaching change in November of 2019. Out went the veteran, old-age style in Mike Babcock, and in came an injection of youth and creativity in Keefe.
The team clearly became numb to Babcock’s message and it seemed as if the only way to get this team out of their rut was to remove the man in charge. And boy did the team respond. Take a look at the team’s stats through Keefe’s first month as the Leafs head coach.
https://twitter.com/rahef_issa/status/1208456616787533824?s=20
Those explosive results immediately following the change appeared to reignite the love for the game the team had lost during the first few weeks of the season. But as quickly as the turnaround happened, just like that, it disappeared again.
Injuries began to pile up, most notably to the Leafs two most important defensemen Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin. Frederik Andersen’s shaky goaltending further complicated the Leafs pursuit of a playoff position. In the end, Toronto stumbled to the finish line and what seemed like a dream beginning to a coach’s tenure felt like a distant memory.
This season should be different though. In the All-Canadian division, the Leafs should undoubtedly be viewed as the favourite. Dubas improved the blueline, bolstered the backup goaltending position, and injected the bottom six with different elements, which should leave all the inconsistencies the team faced before in the rear-view mirror. If the team can re-establish themselves as the dominant force they were to begin Keefe’s tenure, look for the sophomore head coach to receive plenty of praise.
Prediction #10: Auston Matthews Captures His First of Many Rocket Richards
Alex Ovechkin. David Pastrnak. That is it.
Those are the only two players who stood between Matthews and the goal-scoring title in 2019-20, with the Leafs center finishing one back of forcing a three-way tie.
Since Matthews has entered the league, only the Russian phenom ranks above him in total goals with 181 to Matthews’ 158. But looking beyond that, Ovechkin has also played 31 more games and has taken 310 more shots than Matthews.
The Washington Capitals’ captain also has averaged 1:12 more ice time per game than Matthews has, plus has played 607 more minutes on the powerplay. If you even out all of these extenuating circumstances, it is conceivable to think Matthews would be a lot closer to Ovechkin’s total or even would have surpassed him. After all, Matthews leads him in even-strength goals (stats; NHL.com).
Heading into 2020-21 with the same two competitors for the Rocket Richard as 2019-20, Matthews should be the odds-on favourite. Ovi is still a great player but he is also 35. His decline is bound to happen, and it may very well come this season. Pastrnak underwent offseason surgery and will be missing the start of the season. Torey Krug, the Bruins’ powerplay quarterback also left in free agency, almost guaranteeing their PP will take a step back.
And think about this: only 1 Canadian team (Winnipeg Jets) ranked among the NHL’s top 14 in fewest goals against last season. This year should be Matthews’ best opportunity so far to claim the goal-scoring title. With the face of the Leafs franchise just beginning to head into his prime, count this trophy win as the first of many.
Next. Leafs Top 10 Prospects. dark
With a vastly improved roster and the heavy favourite to claim the All-Canadian division crown, the stars may be aligning for the Toronto Maple Leafs to make the along awaited playoff run Leafsnation desperately needs.