Prediction #5: John Tavares and Mitch Marner Dominate Playing Together Again
The duo of Tavares and Marner was unstoppable in the Leafs captain’s first stint with his hometown franchise. With Zach Hyman as the third member to round out the trio, of all forward lines to play at least 600 minutes together, that threesome ranked fourth in expected goals percentage at 55.1% and also finished tops in the league in expected goals for, creating scoring chances virtually at will together (stats; moneypuck.com).
It is no wonder both Tavares and Marner finished with the best seasons of their careers. The Oakville, Ontario native ended with 47 goals and 88 points, with the former London Knight finishing with 94 points himself.
With the coaching staff giving more looks to the Matthews-Marner twosome last year, Tavares was not able to build off the prior season. Although he did deal with a finger injury for some portion of the season, Tavares just did not look like his old self even when healthy in 2019-20.
On pace for 34 goals and 78 points over the course of a full season, it became apparent the newly formed Tavares-Nylander duo did not gel as smoothly as the Tavares-Marner pair did. It could be reasonable to assume Marner’s play suffered as well.
Although Marner dealt with several other issues as well (missed four weeks with an ankle sprain, lengthy contract saga), he was still on pace for 93 points, one off his career-high. However, many times his play looked disengaged and lethargic.
This year, look for Sheldon Keefe to reunite the former linemates in hopes to re-establish the duo as the transcendent force they used to be.
Prediction #6: Zach Hyman is Resigned
Since the 2017-18 season, Hyman ranks fifth among all Toronto Maple Leafs forwards in total points, only behind the “Big Four”. If you factor out powerplay and penalty kill points and only look at even-strength points, Hyman climbs to fourth on the team (stats; NHL.com).
While his 5v5 play has been tremendous over the last three seasons, Hyman’s real value lies in his shorthanded capabilities. Among forwards who played the entirety of the past three seasons with Toronto, no forward comes close to matching the former Michigan Wolverine’s 473 minutes of penalty kill time on ice. Kasperi Kapanen ranks second at only 280 minutes.
Similarly, while looking at the advanced analytics as well, Hyman ranked fifth among all forwards in expected goals-above-replacement, once again only behind the Leafs “Big Four”, while finishing third in expected shorthanded defense last season. Hyman also finished third in expected goals-for percentage in 2019-20, performing as a driving force alongside Auston Matthews for most of the season (stats; evolving-hockey).
It is hard to quantify just how much Hyman means to Toronto due to his tremendous value in areas where he is unmeasurable. His dedication to being the hardest worker night in and night and positive presence in the locker room makes it difficult to forecast a reasonable contract extension.
However, being from Toronto and refusing to play anywhere else, I find it had to believe Hyman would not exhaust all options and try and work out a long-term contract with the Leafs. If he repeats his stellar play from a year ago, expect a deal to be announced before the end of the 2020-21 season.