10 Toronto Maple Leafs Prognostications for the 2021 Season

Prediction #3: Jack Campbell Will Get A Lot More Starts Than We Think

Never before in Frederik Andersen’s Toronto Maple Leafs career has his grip on the starters’ net been so loose. Over the last few seasons, the team’s backups were mostly Curtis McElhinney, Garret Sparks, and Michael Hutchinson. None were ever real threats to taking the number one job from the Danish netminder.

If the Leafs  faith in Campbell’s game proves to be true, Keefe will almost certainly lower Andersen’s start count, especially in a shortened season. Probably to a level we have never seen before.

In Andersen’s first three seasons with the Leafs, he started 66, 66, and 60 games. This past season, having started 52 of his team’s 70 games, Andersen was on pace for just under 61 starts again. That kind of heavy workload could be playing a major factor in his playoff failures. In that case, the Leafs must find out if reducing Andersen’s regular season minutes could lead to playoff success.

The other pressing matter is Andersen’s history of being a notoriously slow starter. For the month of October, Andersen has managed a 3.17 goals-against average and an .898 save-percentage in his career with the Leafs. That type of stumble out of the gate is unacceptable in a 56-game shortened season. Where every game could be a four-point swing against a divisional opponent, an extended slump cannot happen in 2020-21.

Should Andersen’s rough 2019-20 season continue to leak into 2020-21, expect Keefe to ride the hot hand and reward Campbell with the starters net.

Prediction #4: This is One of Holl or Dermott’s Last Season with the Leafs 

As much as it is redundant to worry about the 2021 offseason instead of focusing on this campaign ahead, lurking in the shadows is a daunting event that could spell the end of a Maple Leaf career for a fan favourite. The Seattle Expansion Draft is currently scheduled for July 21st, 2021, and between now and then, Kyle Dubas and Co. need to find out what they have in Justin Holl and Travis Dermott.

You have to think if the Leafs go with the 7-3-1 protection approach, Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, and Jake Muzzin would be the three protected defensemen, leaving Dermott and Holl exposed. Similarly, if the team goes with the 4-4-1 approach, protecting Rielly, Brodie, and Muzzin again, only one of the Dermott and Holl could fill the remaining spot, with both in constant competition for it over the course of the season.

There is also the chance the Leafs look for a steadier blueliner to fill the fourth spot alongside Muzzin. If Holl cannot repeat his breakout 2019-20 season, Mikko Lehtonen does not adjust to NHL competition smoothly, and Dermott and Sandin do not prove to be ready for top-four minutes, we could see a scenario where Toronto is forced to acquire another defensemen to fill the top-four void.

This could then result in the team wanting to move on from both Holl and Dermott. The 2020-21 season could be make or break for both of these two players. With so much uncertainty heading into the season, no two players’ destinies are tied together more on this roster than the two defensemen.