Can the Toronto Maple Leafs Afford to Resign Zach Hyman?

Heading into the summer of 2021, Kyle Dubas and the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be faced with a very tough decision.

One of two key players playing on an expiring contract in 2020-21, Zach Hyman represents a curious case for Toronto Maple Leafs management. For one, Hyman is arguably unmatched by anyone on this roster. He plays left-wing,  kills penalties, forechecks, and finished fourth on this team in goals last season despite missing 19 games.

Off the ice, he is just as hard as a worker as anyone in that dressing room and although he is without a letter on his jersey, Hyman’s leadership is said to be strong.  But, like anyteam with several star players on its roster, tough economic and financial decisions arise every offseason.

All you need for proof is one look at the recent Stanley Cup champions, Tampa Bay Lightning. GM Julien BriseBois had to approach his captain Steven Stamkos, to ask if he would waive his no-move clause just because the team is so tight up against the cap.

In a flat cap pandemic world and a team with tremendously high expectations, let’s take a look at what it would cost to retain the Toronto native.

Hyman’s Value

Since the 2017-18 season, Zach Hyman ranks fifth among all Toronto Maple Leafs forwards in total points, only behind the “Big Four.” If you factor out powerplay and penalty kill points and only look at even-strength, Hyman climbs to fourth on the team (stats; NHL.com).

While his 5v5 play has been tremendous over the last three seasons, a lot of Hyman’s value lies in his shorthanded capabilities. Among forwards who played the entirety of the past three seasons with Toronto, no forward comes close to matching the former Michigan Wolverine’s 473 minutes of penalty kill time on ice. Kasperi Kapanen ranks second at only 280 minutes.

Similarly, while looking at the advanced analytics as well, Hyman ranked fifth among all forwards in expected goals-above-replacement, once again only behind the Leafs “Big Four”, while finishing third in expected shorthanded defense last season. Hyman also finished third in expected goals-for percentage in 2019-20, excelling as a driving force alongside Auston Matthews for most of the season (stats; evolving-hockey).

So, What Might a Contract Look Like?

A contract similar to the one Alex Killorn signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning – where Killorn got seven years, at an AAV of $4.45 million – may work with the financial state the Leafs are in and may be a fair price to pay for Hyman’s services.  Then again, Hyman is approaching 30 and isn’t an elite player – that may not be the wisest course of action.

To that point, Killorn had a career points per game of 0.51, whereas Hyman, so far, has scored 0.50 points per game. What is working against Hyman is the things he does very well, posts stellar analytical numbers, unfortunately, does not get valued as high around the league as players who put up a significant number of points.

Something in the range of Killorn’s AAV feels very reasonable for both sides, but do the Leafs consider going to a full eight-year term to bring the cap hit down closer to $4 million? Would the Leafs feel comfortable handing out a lengthy contract to a soon-to-be 29-year-old? Hyman has also just recently come off a torn ACL injury which required surgery and caused him to miss the first 19 games to start last season.

These are all legitimate questions Kyle Dubas and Co. need to ask themselves before any negotiations begin with the Leafs and Hyman’s camp.

What I Would Do

With so many uncertainties between now and next offseason, it is incredibly difficult to try and predict any moves this team might make. If the Toronto Maple Leafs Leafs fail to accomplish their regular season and playoff goals once again, there is no telling what Kyle Dubas might do.

The wild card in all of this may be something completely out of Hyman’s control: the development of Nick Robertson and Ilya Mikheyev. Both play the same position as Hyman and are a lot younger as well – two years in the case of Mikheyev and nine in the case of Robertson.

Heading into 2020-21, if both players take concrete steps in their development and push Hyman for the 1LW spot, would the Leafs feel comfortable paying $4.5 million for a third-line winger? Would that make Hyman expendable?

The optimist in me believes Hyman would be willing to accept some sort of hometown discount. Remember, although drafted by the Florida Panthers, Hyman had no intention of ever signing with the team. He informed Panthers management of his intentions to become an unrestricted free agent that offseason, where up to 20 teams were said to be interested, but Hyman only had one team in mind – the Toronto Maple Leafs.

We have seen the effect that playing in front of a hometown crowd can take on a free agent in recent offseasons. John Tavares, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, and Wayne Simmonds – all from the Toronto area – all left money on the table to come home and chase a cup wearing the Blue and White. Even Zach Bogosian chose to take less money to play closer to home. Bogosian’s hometown of Massena, New York is only a four-hour drive from Toronto.

And for me, the injury concern may be a bit overblown as well. I look at how he rehabbed from his knee surgery and I would feel a little more comfortable giving him the full seven- or eight-year term. Hyman read all the literature in addition to consulting several doctors about the best possible treatment methods. He also chatted with various NFL running backs who suffered similar injuries and inquired about their experiences throughout the whole process (source; The Athletic).

Hyman is of the rare breed of athletes who spends an extraordinary amount of time preparing his body each and every season and dedicating 100% to refining his craft. That type of character is one you want in your dressing room with the hope it rubs off on some of your younger players.

In the end, I see Hyman and the Leafs agreeing to a seven-year deal, in between $4-$4.5 million. Front-loaded similar to the other deals Kyle Dubas has signed recently, making Hyman a Leaf for life.

While we sit potentially seven months away from the 2021 offseason, we look ahead to a crucial 2020-21 season for the entire Toronto Maple Leafs organization.