The Toronto Maple Leafs need to load up their top line.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to take the next step from being a potential contender to one who scares other teams, they need to copy the Boston Bruins best idea.
The Boston Bruins are not the deepest team in the NHL, and despite being great for years, they never really have been. Their success comes from understanding that the NHL is a star-driven league where top players win games.
The Bruins, unlike any other team in the NHL, put all their eggs in one basket. That is, they deploy a super-line that features three of the best players in the NHL all at once.
The Leafs need to do the same thing.
Toronto Maple Leafs Super-Line
The logic behind the Bruins deployment of the Brad Marchant- Patrice Bergeron- David Pastrnak line is solid – after the elite players, most NHL teams are basically the same. It’s a pro league with a salary cap, and the differences between non-star players are marginal.
Therefore, whoever’s star players perform the best usually wins. Most teams like to spread around their best players, and this makes sense because they tend to improve their linemates.
But in theory, this just allows the defense to spread itself the same way. If you load up, the other team is forced to do the same, and your other players get easier matchups anyways, thus defeating the main reason for spreading your starts around in the first place.
The Leafs occasionally set up a super-line last year and did so in the playoffs as well. Here are the stats when Auston Matthews and John Tavaers played together last season: 58% puck possession, 61% of the shots, and an absolutely ridiculous 64% expected-goals. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
Even crazier, they outscored the opposition 8-1 in just under 90 minutes, which is 89% of the total goals. You can’t ignore domination like that. With the deep roster the Leafs have, it would be foolish not to do it.
One advantage the Toronto Maple Leafs have is that no one can match their 1-2 combo down the middle. If you pair Tavares and Matthews, you lose that advantage. So while I support the super-line strategy, I would use a different combo.
Nylander-Matthews-Marner
This would likely be just as good as the former combination, but would still allow you to assemble a dangerous second line of Nick Robertson-Tavares – Kerfoot. With four of the best forwards in the NHL, the Leafs don’t face any of the normal drawbacks associated with loading up one line.
Neither Pastrnak nor Marchand was considered the type of player who would be among the best in the NHL when they first arrived on the scene – but three elite players on the ice at all times is nearly unstoppable. I highly doubt they’d have achieved Hart-worthy status if they were deployed normally.
The Leafs super-line would have the two of the NHL’s top ten goal scorers, and arguably the best passer in the league. Keep in mind that a Tavares-Matthews-Marner line didn’t need a Hyman (or reasonable facsimile) to dominate because the grinder-on-every-line theory, where you need a Hyman-like guy to “get the puck,” is absolute B.S that is unsubstantiated by any data.
That player, while complimentary, doesn’t do what a truly elite player can do, and so replacing Hyman with Nylander on the top line would make a huge positive difference. Hyman should play on the third line where he is much better suited to playing.
The Leafs would also be better able to take advantage of Kerfoot’s elite defense by having him permanently in the top six. This is a win-win across the board and should be employed every game.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to reach their maximum potential, playing Nylander (who wants to play left win anyways) with Marner and Matthews is the way to do it.