Toronto Maple Leafs: Flames Set to Compete in Canadian Division
By William Cann
The Toronto Maple Leafs should be the class of the Canadian Division.
In the last week or so here at EIL we have been previewing how the Toronto Maple Leafs might match up against the rest of the all Canadian division, should the rumours of one come to pass.
The Canadiens look to be among the worst the division has to offer, while the Oilers should compete with the Leafs, and the Jets look to be about middle of the pack. Today we will look into the Calgary Flames.
The Calgary Flames had a very mediocre season in 2019-20. In an all-Canadian division, do the Flames have what it takes to contend for the title of “Canada’s best team”? I think they will be an improved team, one that will more closely resemble the success that they had in 2018-19, and a team that will challenge for the division crown.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames
It’s worth noting that the 2018-19 Calgary Flames were a really good team. An elite team in fact. They finished with the 2nd best record in the NHL that year. Johnny Gaudreau had 99 pts. Mark Giordano won the Norris trophy. As a team, they had a whopping 53.9 CF% and a +66 goal differential (all stats from Hockeyreference.com). What makes their 107 points so impressive was that they did it with league average special teams and mediocre goal-tending. They were a truly dominant team at 5v5, which was kind of a Bill Peters specialty before the NHL told him to pack his bags.
Were the 2018-19 Flames the real Flames? They shot an abnormally high %, suggesting that a few career seasons propelled their PDO into the realm of elite teams, but did they belong there on a consistent basis? The lack of success in the playoffs and the poor play of last year suggest the Flames are probably somewhere in between the success of 2 years ago and the failure of last year.
Let’s take a quick look at the 2019-20 season, break down the off-season changes, and take an in-depth look at the Calgary Flames.
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The 2019-20 season.
The Flames struggled out of the gate with uninspired play. Bill Peters was fired for behavior unbecoming of an NHL head coach and replaced by Geoff Ward after 29 games. The Flames got the usual coaching change boost and finished with enough points to make it into the play-in tournament. Much of this story sounds familiar to Leafs fans does it not?
They went on to beat the Winnipeg Jets in the qualifier and eventually lose in the first round to the Dallas Stars. They were a very average team statistically and probably finished right where they were supposed to, all things considered.
The off-season, notable departures:
The biggest departure was the guy that the Toronto Maple Leafs signed, defenseman TJ Brodie. Brodie has taken some slack at times but by all accounts he has been a very stable veteran presence in the Flames top pairing for years. He was the “other” guy on that pair when Giordano won his Norris trophy. He’s played big minutes against top competition and he’s been an effective player for them. The Flames are going to miss him.
Another defenseman they let walk in free-agency was Travis Hamonic. Hamonic has seen better days and his best hockey is probably behind him. He was quite good in 2018-19 but his play dropped off substantially last season. The Flames were not going to bring him back.
Mark Jankowskie and Cam Talbot are the other notable departures. Jankowskie was a bottom six center that mainly played in the defensive zone without much success, and I think the Flames had higher hopes for the former 1st round draft pick. Talbot posted a .919 SV% and was effective as a 1B in a tandem with Rittich, but the Flames clearly made it a priority to upgrade their goal-tending in the off-season and the market was far too deep for the Flames to make an investment in bringing back the aging net-minder.
The off-season, notable additions:
Jacob Markstrom, 6 x $6M
The big fish for the Flames, and one of the bigger fish on the market in general, was the signing of goalie Jacob Markstrom to a 6 year contract. Markstrom was the top goaltender on the market and the fact that the Flames lured him away from their rival, the Vancouver Canucks, was like putting chocolate sauce on top of chocolate trinity ice cream. Markstrom was 4th in the Vezina voting last year, was named the Canucks’ MVP the last two seasons, and now he will be stopping pucks for a geographic rival. This is a big win for the Flames. Markstrom will improve this team substantially.
Chris Tanev, 4 x $4.5M
After the loss of T.J. Brodie, the Flames needed to acquire a veteran defenseman who could eat some of those minutes so they brought in Chris Tavev. Another Canuck, Tanev is known for his good defensive play and gritty mentality.
He has been an effective player when healthy, but he has missed a lot of hockey due to injuries in his 10 years in the league. Tanev was healthy last season for the first time in a long time, and the Flames are betting $18M on that trend continuing for the 30 year old veteran. I’m not sure I would have made that bet. This is a lot of risk for a declining player with the kind of injury history that Tanev has.
Dominik Simon, 1 x $700k
Josh Leivo, 1 x $875k
Joakim Nordstrom, 1 x $700k
I put these forward additions in the same group because they are all bottom six depth additions. Simon is a versatile player who has the skill to spot up in the lineup to cover injuries if need be. Leivo plays a simple game but has a good shot and can contribute some offense as well as help you on PP2. Nordstrom is a coaches dream and just gives you a solid effort every shift. Brad Treliving did a nice job of taking advantage of the market and bringing in cheap bodies that can play. They are a deeper team at forward.
2020-21 Projection
Current cap space: $1,010,834 (capfriendly.com)
LW C RW
Johnny Gaudreau Sean Monahan Elias Lindholm
Andrew Mangiapane Mikael Backlund Matthew Tkachuk
Milan Lucic Sam Bennett Dillon Dube
Dominik Simon Derek Ryan Josh Leivo
Joakim Nordstrom
D Pairings
Mark Giordano Rasmus Andersson
Noah Hanifin Chris Tanev
Juuso Valimaki/Nikita Nesterov/Connor Mackey/Oliver Kylington/Alex Petrovic
The one bright spot from last season for the Flames was the improvement in special teams play. Jeff Ward brought them back to life in that area. If that trend continues, the Flames will have a chance to climb the standings in 2020-21.
Ward gets a fresh start with everyone on the same page at training camp and I think you can expect him to tinker with some of his personnel. There has been talk of giving Lindholm a good look at center and that would allow for some creative changes in deployment. This strategy will help shelter Monahan’s usage a little more, allowing Lindholm, a better defensive player, to take more of the hard minutes at center. If that works out, both players could benefit from it.
As I stated earlier, I really like the forward group. Jacob Markstrom and David Rittich will be in goal and it should be a very good tandem, so we know they are better in net. We know the special teams improved under Ward after he took over. However, they have some serious question marks on defense.
Does Giordano have another great season in him at 37? Can Andersson continue to make strides at 22, and become a top pairing partner for Giordano? How many games will Tanev play and how much does his battered body have left to give? How much will they miss Brodie?
Will Hanifin rebound from a downward trend the last two years at age 23 or is he what he is? The trade rumors swirling around Hanifin this summer suggest the Flames don’t know the answer. Are either of Juuso Valimaki or Connor Mackey ready to contribute and earn a spot in the top 6?
If it all works out, the defense will be ok, and the team may be really good. I don’t think this blue line will fire on all cylinders this year, there are just too many unknowns and too many question marks.
Conclusion
Anytime you have a healthy Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Giordano, and now Markstrom, you have a talented core that will give you a chance to win a lot of games. The depth additions at forward are nice and will be beneficial for the upcoming condensed schedule.
Next. The Leafs Top 10 Prospects. dark
The defense is a work in progress and there is a lot to prove there before I’m a believer.
Overall, the Flames should be a force near the top of the Canadian division. I’m projecting them at a 101 point pace, and compete with the Oilers for second place, falling just short of being Canada’s best team in 2020-21.