Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects (Annual Pre-Camp Update)
The Toronto Maple Leafs prospect pool got quite a bit better over the past six months.
It’s been almost a year since we last updated the Toronto Maple Leafs top ten prospect list, and in that time we’ve seen a lot of changes.
When we last ranked the Leafs prospects, people were higher on Timothy Liljegren, and Nick Robertson hadn’t yet completed one of the most dominant seasons by an 18-year-old in OHL history. Then there is the Kapanen Trade, which added two players to this list, and made a significant impact.
Owing to the strength of the NHL roster, there haven’t been any major graduations, although Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson have all gotten into NHL games. If the Leafs were a worse team, a lot of the players on this list would already be in the NHL.
In fact, given the Leafs current draft-built roster, it is actually impressive that the prospect pool is as good as it is. While there are not any high-end, sure-things, the Leafs have a group of highly skilled, highly intelligent, high ceiling prospects.
When coming up with this list, I talked prospects with many of my colleges, read through countless scouting reports and internet articles, and watched a bunch of youtube videos. My goal is to rank the players by using a subjective combination that considers their ceiling, their chance of hitting it, and their chance of being an NHL player.
For example, I’d rank Semyon Der-Arguchintsev higher than Adam Brooks, even though Brooks has a much better shot of one day being a regular NHL player. If Brooks makes it, it will be as a fourth liner, but if SDA does in fact make it, it’s probably because he’s a star.
With that in mind, let’s get it on.
Mikko Kokkonen #10
The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Mikko Kokkonen in the 3rd round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Despite not having a first rounder in that draft, it is kind of incredible how good that draft looks for them just a little more than a year later. (Kokkonen is the first of three from that draft to make this list).
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Kokkonen is a smallish (5’9) defenseman who shoots left-handed and is described as “quick in transition” and “intelligent.”
The Leafs obviously have a type, and Kokkonen is it. In this article from the Athletic, multiple people mention his maturity, and when he is asked to evaluate his own game, it really comes across. Kokkonen tells writer Joshua Kloke that he’d like to be a top NHL defenseman, but acknowledges that probably isn’t his path. In a self-assessment of his own play, he says he’s good at everything, great at nothing.
The scouting reports seem to bear that out.
Scott Wheeler had this to say:
He plays a modern, puck-possession style that might look a little too safe but drives results, includes some calculated aggression and is at its best when he’s making simple, smart plays. More and more, those are the defensemen teams covet.
Of course it has been well publicized that Kokkonen had a concussion going into last season and that he struggled somewhat. His offensive totals are not impressive, but he looks to be on track to become an effective middle-of-the-lineup NHL defenseman.
If that’s what you get out of your tenth best prospect, I think that’s a good sign.
Filip Hallander #9
The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Filip Hallander (and a first rounder) from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Kasperi Kapanen.
The trade may go down as one of the biggest heists in NHL history. That sounds like an exaggeration, but Kapanen is not a very good player. In his time with the Leafs, he had one good year, and two years where he was no more than a fourth liner. (Prior to the trade, we graded Kapanen’s year an “F”).
That the Leafs could swap an overpaid replacement player for huge financial savings, and (once the draft was over) two top prospects is still hard to believe. The Penguins will surely regret this trade, if they don’t already.
Hallander is ranked much higher on most of these rankings, but I prefer a high ceiling over a better chance to just make the league, which Hallander is a shoe-in to do. In fact, if he wasn’t on the league’s deepest team, he’d probably have a decent shot at an NHL job this year.
Like most Leafs prospects, the scouting reports suggest that Hallander is a smart player who drives puck possession. The experts seem to believe he’ll be a decent, if unspectacular, middle of the lineup player.
Think Ilya Mikheyev, maybe, if everything works out. Hallander was picked in the second round of the 2018 draft, and is an average sized, left-shooting centre. He is 20 years old.
A nice thing about picking up Hallander was that the Toronto Maple Leafs had already traded Sean Durzi (the player they picked instead of Hallander, just a couple spots before Pittsburgh drafted) to the Kings in the Jake Muzzin trade. This is significant only for the fact that the Leafs used two draft picks (2018 second, and 2020 first) to improve their team but were able to recoup them later at almost no cost.
Justin Brazeau #8
The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t draft Justin Brazeau, and technically, they don’t even have him under contract.
In 2019, the Toronto Marlies signed Brazeau to a two-year AHL deal. Last year Brazeau got into one AHL game, and played 57 games for the Newfoundland Growlers where he had 27 goals and 55 points in the ECHL. You can expect him to play for the Marlies this year however, if for no other reason than the Growlers are going on a hiatus.
As a 17-year-old, Brazeau had six goals in his rookie season in the OHL. In his draft year he scored 22 and went undrafted. By his overage fourth year, he was a 61 goal, 113 point player. The growth was as incredible as it was unexpected, and Brazeau landed himself a contract for the AHL.
He’s a 6’6″, 220 lbs. power forward and there is no one like him anywhere else in the Leafs system. Will he make the NHL? I doubt it. He’s a longshot at best, and basically every scouting report I could find on him indicates that he probably isn’t a good enough skater to be an NHL player.
But, like almost every player on this list, the word “intelligent” comes up whenever you read about him. They say he’s a very skilled player for his size, and that he has a real goal scoring touch.
The reason I put Brazeau on this list is that he has a really nice ceiling. He may never have the skating to hit it, but he’s an absolute monster and the rarity of his size and skill combo makes him an extremely interesting prospect. He’s a longshot, but he might be a 30 goal scorer one day too.
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev #7
Der-Arguchintsev is the prototypical prospect for a competing team: enough flaws to make him available when you have a chance to pick him, but enough talent that you have a chance to find a diamond in the rough.
Der-Argushintsev just finished his fourth OHL season where he partnered with Nick Robertson and scored 75 points in 55 games. He is now in the KHL where he has only played eight games so far.
A small 20-year-old centre who shoots right, SDA was picked in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft. Like Robertson in 2019, the Leafs made him the youngest player picked in the draft. Though a completely different player than Brazeau, SDA represents a similar blend of high-end talent and long odds to make the show. But if he makes it….
SDA will likely get a starring role in the AHL this year, or at least the opportunity to take one. For now, he’s getting his first taste of pro hockey in the KHL, and after this year we should have a much better idea of his career potential.
Basically, no one doubts that he has NHL All Star talent, they just wonder how he’ll handle NHL defensemen given he lacks both size and blazing speed. Still, he wouldn’t be the first small player to make a living with world class passing skills and not much else.
SDA is also a player who is universally loved wherever he goes. Nearly every article you read mentions his great attitude, winning personality and dedication to improvement. When you look at the pattern that emergences while your analyzing Leafs draft picks, along with skill and intelligence, the team seems to be dedicated to finding mature, personable and dedicated kids to draft.
Der-Arguchintsev exemplifies everything the Leafs look for, and the fact that they believe in him seems to be his best selling point as a prospect. I suspect we may one day look back and find it hard to believe how lowly the Leafs media ranked SDA as a prospect.
Joseph Duszak #6
Duszak scored 18 points in his first 23 professional games as a defenseman. He is 23 now and though he’s a late bloomer, his time as a prospect would be running out on most teams. The Leafs, however, recently promoted 27 year old rookie Justin Holl to their top four and he performed like a seasoned star last year.
Duszak drew rave reviews from the AHL, and people talk about how his offensive game is of NHL quality. He also drew equally bad reviews about his size and defensive abilities.
Duszak was signed as an undrafted free agent, and he destroyed the ECHL and was very good in the AHL. If you’re scoring a point per game as an AHL call-up, that is a very good sign as to your NHL potential.
He’s a right handed shot, and his potential is off the charts because of his talent. If he learns to be defensively responsible he could be a solid NHL contributor. NHL prospect guru Corey Pronman said he was concerned about his skating and ability to defend, but called him intriguing and potentially an NHL player because of his “skill level and great offensive hockey sense.” (Pronman, the Athletic, 2020).
This is another case of ranking talent higher than potential to just be an average NHL player. If Duszak does make it, it’s probably going to be because he made himself into a key member of a really good blue-line.
Mikhail Abramov #5
Picked in the 4th round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Mikhail Abramov is the Toronto Maple Leafs fifth best prospect. Currently a 19 year old, left handed centre out of the Q, Abramov has rocketed up the Leafs prospect rankings since being picked last year.
Abramov gets the typical Leafs prospect scouting report: intelligent, highly skilled, great work ethic, high “compete,” and as is also typical, he has a flaw that allowed him to be available so low in the draft.
In the Leafs case, these flaws are almost always size and skating, two things the team obviously doesn’t prioritize. The clearly believe these guys can improve their skating, and that puck possession, not speed, is what matters at the NHL level.
Scouts also note that Abramov has an excellent shot. He scored 76 points in the QMJHL last season, and is still a few years away from the NHL.
That being said, he’s got a better chance to actually make the NHL than everyone below him on this list, save maybe Hallander. But Abramov also has a high-end skill level that could potentially allow him to become a star player.
There is, of course, no guarantees, but that’s why he’s #5.
Rodion Amirov #4
The Toronto Maple Leafs surprised nearly everyone when they kept their #15 pick this summer and used it to select Rodion Amirov of Russia.
A small, skilled left-winger who was widely considered one of, if not the fastest skater in the draft, Amirov is 6′ 170 lbs and shoots left. He only had two points in 21 games last year in the KHL, but that was as an undrafted 18-year-old playing vs. men. That he was there at all is incredible.
This year he performed strongly at the Karjala Tournament, and already has four goals and seven points in 22 games in the KHL. Though rumours recently suggested he may sign for a couple years in the KHL, Amirov has already excited Leafs fans with his highlight moves and career potential.
Amirov could land anywhere from useful third-liner, to star first line scoring superstar, and that combo of being almost a sure thing to at least make the NHL and having high-end (if not blue-chip) potential makes him the Leafs fourth best prospect.
In an ideal world, we aren’t far from seeing the Toronto Maple Leafs ice Robertson-Matthews-Marner with Amirov-Tavares-Nylander in an absolutely insane top six combo.
Not to get too crazy here, but the words “Nikita Kucherov” and “Rodion Amirov” have been uttered in the same sentence by people who are not, to my knowledge at least, crazy. Obviously that is a best best best case scenario, but the comparison is enough to get us excited, and what else are these lists for?
Timothy Liljegren #3
Much hyped when the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted him, Timothy Liljegren has seen his stock go up and down like a yoyo in his time as a Leafs prospect.
First, he was the can’t-miss second-coming who only fell in the draft due to mono, and then he was a bust, and then he was definitely going to make it, and then he had a so-so NHL debut, which made him a bust again.
The truth is, that Liljegren is still a great prospect with high-end NHL potential. He wasn’t even that bad in his NHL debut, but if you don’t hit and you don’t score, it doesn’t really matter what else you do, because if you are on the ice when goals go in you will take the blame.
The truth is that Liljegren did not come by his 11 game audition naturally. The Leafs had multiple injuries and were forced into using players who otherwise wouldn’t be playing, or at least, not in the roles they had.
For example, in his NHL debut, Liljegren dressed with Dermott, Holl, Ceci, Barrie and Marincin – how can anyone expect a rookie to perform when the team is missing their top two defensemen? Liljegren played in games the Leafs mostly lost, and he only ever got more than ten minutes and change once. He was under eight minutes twice. From Corey Pronman in the Athletic
He shows great poise and vision from the defensive zone on exits and can make plays from the offensive blue line. He’s a very skilled player who can beat checks one-on-one. He’s a good skater, more elusive with good edgework than fast, but with his feet and hands he’s able to maintain possession well. Defensively he’s taken big steps, becoming a reliable defender at the pro level in how he kills plays and can be trusted by coaches to play a significant role.
To me, that kind of glowing review has a lot more impact than 11 games used as an afterthought in an emergency situation. He isn’t physical and he isn’t going to score a ton, but I think he will one day be a great top-four player, and potentially could even be a top line guy.
It’s funny, everyone always preaches patience with prospects, but whenever a team actually does show patience, fans write the player off and say “well if he was any good, he’d be here by now.”
By all accounts he’s one of the best players in the AHL, and though the Leafs blueline is crowded, expect Timothy Liljegren to push everyone and make the Leafs that much better and deeper. It’s not impossible that he steal someone’s job this year, and it’s probable that he does eventually.
Rasmus Sandin #2
Drafted 29th in the first round in 2019, Rasmus Sandin has done nothing but impress since the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted him. He used to be their #1 prospect, but falls to #2 only because the #1 guy is so good.
Sandin is potentially the best defenseman in the AHL, and is roundly considered one of the best players in the entire world that isn’t yet an NHL regular. A left shooting defenseman who can play both sides, Sandin will be looking to make an impact in the NHL this year, despite the number of players who will be trying to win regular ice-time on the Leafs.
So far Sandin has 28 NHL games under his belt, and he performed pretty good, all things considered (like Liljegren, most of his time came when the Leafs were icing depleted lineups). Sandin posted a 52% puck possession rating, and the Leafs got 54% of the scoring chances when he was on the ice.
The fact is, an absolutely brutal (and unlucky) 88.59% on-ice save percentage made Sandin look far worse than he actually was. For whatever reason (and players contribute very, very little to their on-ice save percentage) the goalies just did horribly whenever Sandin was on the ice.
Sandin is smart, steady, and intelligent. He might never score enough to win a Norris, but he’s going to be a very good top-of-the lineup NHL defenseman, possibly as soon as this season.
Nick Robertson #1
How many players, let alone second rounders, play in the NHL playoffs and score a goal before they are 19? Not many, that is for sure.
Nick Robertson was the youngest player in last year’s draft, and if he’d been born a few days later, he’d have gone in the top ten of this year’s draft after a 55 goal (in 46 games) performance in the OHL this year.
It is worth noting that every single player who ever scored more than a goal per game as an 18-year-old (who didn’t turn 19 in the middle of the season) in the OHL has gone on to have a 40 goal NHL season. As a probable 40 goal scorer, Nick Robertson easily takes the top spot on the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect chart.
No team with Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly on it has any business with a prospect like this, so full credit to Kyle Dubas. In fact, Robertson’s rise helped give the Leafs a ton of cap flexibility because with him available for the league minimum, there was no need to keep Andreas Johnsson or Kasperi Kapanen around.
Maybe if Robertson doesn’t explode, the Leafs can trade one of them, but certainly not both. With no need to embarrass OHL goalies further, and no other options, Robertson will likely find himself skating with the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.
Next. A Master Class In Salary Cap Management. dark
At 5v5 in the playoffs he wasn’t great (although his numbers skyrocketed without Kapanen) but he did score and his shot was a weapon on the power play. The Leafs are going to be able to run two power-plays, one where Auston Matthews takes a bunch of shots, and one where Nick Robertson does. You literally will not be able to take a penalty against the Leafs.
That concludes our Top Ten Prospect List, until next time, thanks for joining us.