Toronto Maple Leafs: Revisiting Some 2020 Offseason Predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs underwent a pretty drastic roster turnover over the last number of weeks.
It is hard not to be a fan of the moves the Toronto Maple Leafs made this offseason. They solidified the defense corps, bolstered the goaltending depth, and added different elements to the bottom of the lineup, all while keeping the core together. If you include the hiring of the forward-thinking Manny Malhotra, you will be hard-pressed to find another GM who pulled off a better couple of months.
The Leafs are notorious for keeping their cards close to their chest and very few know what the front office is actually thinking, and as fans of this team, all we can do is take the information available to us and make our own predictions based on that – which is exactly what I did.
Just before the offseason began, I had written about 10 things I expected from this team over the next couple of months. Although the offseason is technically not over yet, it is pretty safe to say this is more or less the team we will see come opening night. So, with that in mind, let’s revisit what I had previously predicted for the Leafs and see how I did.
Prediction #1:
The Toronto Maple Leafs will keep their 15th overall selection in the 2020 NHL Draft.
What Actually Happened: The Toronto Maple Leafs kept their 2020 first-round pick.
In Kyle Dubas’ first heist of the 2020 offseason, Kasperi Kapanen was shifted off to Pittsburgh in exchange for a package centred around the Penguins’ 2020 first-round pick. With that pick, the Leafs nabbed Russian winger Rodion Amirov.
Amirov was one of the bigger risers on draft boards in the weeks leading up to the 2020 NHL draft, and as his season has started to get underway over in Russia, he has done nothing but impress. Split between the KHL, the VHL, and some international play, Amirov has made a regular appearance on the highlight real.
While we might never know for which defensemen Kyle Dubas could have moved that pick for, it is hard to say the Leafs did not walk away sitting pretty after draft night.
Prediction #2:
Frederik Andersen returns as the Leafs starting goaltender in 2020-21.
What Actually Happened: Frederik Andersen will be returning as the Leafs starting goaltender in 2020-21.
The goaltending situation of the Toronto Maple Leafs was a very difficult one to read. On one hand, it seemed as if the Leafs were done with Andersen. There will always be a “what if” regarding his last couple of playoff series, where Andersen continued to be fooled by countless lazy shot attempts.
It was leaked through other team’s sources the Leafs were shopping the Danish netminder and if there is one thing I have learned following hockey, it is when there is smoke, there is fire.
However, pealing through the available replacements through free agency or via trade, there were not many options that were a) better than Andersen and b) cheaper than Andersen. Two goalies were able to somewhat fill both criteria in Darcy Kuemper and Matt Murray.
Kuemper would have been a nice upgrade over Andersen, especially at $500,000 less, but Arizona’s asking price was most likely astronomical – potentially at a point where Toronto would be greatly sacrificing in other key areas.
Murray could have been a decent option with him having won two Stanley Cups and being only 26 years old, but could you say he is a definite upgrade. On a shorter-term deal, he would have likely been cheaper than Andersen, however, he seems to be in a lower tier of starting goaltenders.
As the offseason continued to roll along, and the list of available netminders appeared to dwindle, it became more evident Andersen would be returning to the Leafs crease next season.
Prediction #3:
Joe Thornton replaces Jason Spezza as the Leafs 4C
What Actually Happened: Both Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza signed with the Leafs.
Leading up to the start of free agency, I was all over the Thornton to the Toronto Maple Leafs hype train. Looking past the 2019-20 season, as the Sharks struggled mightily as a whole, ‘Jumbo’ Joe had an incredibly productive 2018-19 season and has been producing at a higher rate than Spezza has over the last three years.
Looking at both players’ raw stats, Thornton has been a significantly better point producer since the 2017-18 season, averaging 0.7 goals/60 and 2.3 points/60 compared to Spezza’s 0.57 goals/60 and 1.77 points/60. (stats evolving-hockey.com).
Signing both players did not seem to be a viable option to me because it is hard to imagine an effective fourth line with two ageing bodies taking up two-thirds of the available spots. Both players seem to excel with quicker, speedier wingers flanking the two centermen, and with them playing alongside each other, I worried the Leafs would not have been receiving full value from both signings.
The skeptic in me is still waiting to see how Thornton as the Leafs 3C plays out, but for now, ‘Jumbo’ Joe suiting up for the Blue and White cannot come any sooner.
Prediction #4:
Travis Dermott is traded – on one condition.
What Actually Happened: Travis Dermott re-signed with the Leafs on a one-year, $874,125 contract.
The Travis Dermott contract negotiations were always going to be tricky to forecast. The perfect model of a tools vs. toolbox type of player, Dermott has all the potential to become a fantastic top four defensemen in this league.
But several times during the 2019-20 season, Dermott was given the opportunity to show he was there in his development, however, squandered the chance every time. None more significant than when Jake Muzzin went down with an injury during the Columbus series and Dermott was just unable to answer the bell for head coach Sheldon Keefe.
All this seemed to spell Dermott had played his last game in Toronto – but on one condition. Dermott is from Newmarket, Ontario and as a Toronto kid, being drafted by the Leafs and as an RFA, he chose to accept his qualifying offer of $874,125 – or a one-year offer of the equivalent salary. In this case, it is easy to see how the Leafs could add to the right side of their blueline will keeping Dermott in the fold as well.
Now, with the right side improved and Dermott determined to prove his doubters wrong, the Leafs’ top-six defense group is shaping up to be one of the more competitive training camp battles for Keefe and Co.
Prediction #5:
William Nylander is not traded.
What Actually Happened: William Nylander was not traded.
As the Leaf who gets the most unwarranted criticism, William Nylander provided some of the league’s best value in 2019-20, en route to a career year. On a very affordable contract of $6.9 million over the next four years, Nylander has one of the NHL’s most valuable contracts.
Pessimists suggested it was impossible for Kyle Dubas to land a top-four defensemen without moving the 24-year-old, however, on day one of 2020 free agency, the Leafs GM inked renowned defensive defensemen, TJ Brodie, to a five-year contract.
Simultaneously, the Leafs added incredible goaltending depth and added different play styles to their bottom-six, all while keeping Nylander a member of this team. With Brandon Pridham and Dubas in charge, two of the smartest executives in the NHL when it comes to managing the salary cap, it is incomprehensible that people continue to doubt this duo.
Prediction #6:
Johnsson out, Robertson in.
What Actually Happened: Johnsson was indeed traded, however, Robertson’s future remains up in the air.
Andreas Johnsson was Traded to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for forward prospect Joey Anderson. Johnsson has left Toronto as one of the greatest seventh-round steals in Leafs history.
Every since Johnsson and Kapanen signed a team friendly short-term contract extensions, it was clear that they represented a level of flexibility for the Leafs in managing the salary cap. Sure enough, the emergence of Nick Roberts and Ilya Mikheyev, as well as the signing of Alex Barabanov, made them expendable.
Dubbed ‘Mango’ by the locker room and soon followed by the Leafsnation, Johnsson had a tremendous season in 2018-19, playing primarily alongside Auston Matthews. Registering 20 goals and 43 points (stats; NHL.com), Johnsson proved he has got the necessary tools to play in any team’s top six.
And while we still do not know what the future holds for Robertson, if it is in the OHL, AHL, or the NHL, you can be sure the Toronto Maple Leafs 2019 second-round pick is looking to make a significant impact. Although in a very small sample size, Robertson showed he can handle important minutes, finding himself playing alongside John Tavares and William Nylander on the second line, not looking out of place at all, during game four of the Leafs play-in series.
The optimist in me would love to see Robertson lineup alongside Matthews and Nylander on the Toronto Maple Leafs first line. Putting up a whopping 55 goals in 46 games this past season in the OHL, it will be dangerous to see what a duo of Robertson and one of the best goal scorers in the league, if not the best, could do together.
Prediction #7:
Two forwards who are not considered “Dubas Types” will be signed.
What Actually Happened: Wayne Simmonds and Joey Anderson were brought in to add “grit” to the bottom-six.
In his prime, Wayne Simmonds was the premier model of an NHL power forward. He could match the goal-scoring of just about anyone, save for Alex Ovechkin, and not shy away from the physical aspects of the game as well. While the on-ice impacts of Simmonds are sure to be significant, his off-ice work in the dressing room and on the bench is going to make an impression as well.
The Leafs got Joey Anderson from the Devils, and he’s a physical player in the mold of Zach Hyman. Both these players fit the mold of players who are not considered “Dubas Types” even though Dubas has consistently added these types of players since he has been with the Leafs (Zach Hyman was his first NHL trade).
Prediction #8:
Frederik Gauthier and Denis Malgin are not re-signed.
What Actually Happened: Malgin was re-signed, however, Gauthier was not.
Drafted in the first round, 21st overall, in the 2013 NHL draft, Gauthier had the tools to become a great two-way NHL centerman. At 6′ 5″, 239 lbs, few could match up size-wise down the middle against the “Goat”. However, the Laval, Quebec native just never was able to put it together with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Primarily the Leafs fourth line pivot in 2019-20, Gauthier leaves the only organization he has ever known, finishing with 13 goals and 31 points in 168 games .
Malgin, who has traded mid-2019-20 season for prospect Mason Marchment, showed enough to Leaf management in his eight-game stint he deserved to be resigned to a league-minimum contract. There is not really much to quibble with over his resigning as Malgin is a perfectly fine 14th or 15th forward.
Prediction #9:
Pierre Engvall Takes Kasperi Kapanen’s spot on the Leafs 3rd line.
What Actually Happened: Undetermined.
With the departure of Kapanen this offseason, Sheldon Keefe is not short on potential replacements for the Leafs third line. We can reasonably expect Alex Kerfoot to centre the third line, but who else is on it is anyone’s guess.
Joe Thornton, Jimmy Vesey, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Robertson, Alexander Barabanov, and Engvall are all looking to make an impact and make their case to the coaching staff as to why they belong higher in the lineup over their teammates. All six seem to have compelling arguments as well.
It is also not impossible that someone beats out Zach Hyman or Ilya Mikheyev for a spot in the top six and one of those guys ends up the third line. Basically, the Leafs have almost unlimited options.
Vesey has prior chemistry with Kerfoot. Simmonds has the resume of being a great goal scorer and also a prominent physical threat. Robertson is the offensive wunderkind, who lit up the OHL. Barabanov was the highly coveted KHL free agent, who has experience playing alongside Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetsov in international play. Engvall is undoubtedly the fastest of the bunch and easily the most defensively responsible.
Keefe also has the option of mixing and matching the third line trio based on the Leafs opponent or whatever point in the game they are in. Whichever way you look at it or however you would like it to play out, expect this battle to come down to the wire with little headway in between now and the start of the season.
Prediction #10:
Alex Pietrangelo signs with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
What Actually Happened: Alex Pietrangelo signed with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Unfortunately, we did not get to see the second biggest Toronto homecoming. Pietrangelo, who is one of the best defensemen in the game today, would have been the perfect fit alongside Leafs #1 defensemen Morgan Rielly. The King City native is a right-shooting, minute eating, all situations defensemen, with Stanley Cup experience and leadership qualities that do not come by very easily.
In the end, Toronto Maple Leafs management was unable to make the money work in terms of fitting Pietrangelo’s contract under the salary cap, however, Brodie is not just a consolation prize.
Back in June, I published an article detailing why I believed TJ Brodie and the Leafs were a match made in heaven. So, when the news broke of the Chatham, Ontario native and his hometown team agreeing to a contract, I was extremely pleased by the move.
In January of 2019, Sportsnet released an article trying to identify the league’s best defensive defensemen. Brodie was named in the top 10, with the authors citing his monstrous ability to remove the puck from his opponents. Furthermore, Brodie’s play driving is excellent, specifically, his expected goals against suppression, ranking in 89th percentile league-wide (stats; mapleleafshotstove.com).
Similarly, Brodie ranks in the 85th percentile in heavy ice time facing elite forwards (stats; mapleleafshotstove.com) and logs a ton of minutes in the defensive end – for his career Brodie has started 52% of his faceoffs in the defensive end. For what it is worth, Toronto’s best defensive defensemen, Jake Muzzin, has started 52% of his faceoffs in the defensive end in his career with Toronto (stats; hockey-reference).
Brodie is also quite adept at creating opportunities for his teammates as he ranks in the 97th percentile and the 91st percentile in secondary assist and estimated shot assists rates respectively (stats; mapleleafshotstove.com).
dark. Next. 3 Toronto Maple Leafs That Could be Underrated Next Year
Overall, this offseason has been a tremendous success for Dubas and Co. With still a couple more months until (likely) the opening night of the 2020-21 season, all we can do is fantasize about how much of an impact these new additions will make.