On the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Concept of Luck

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been unlucky.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost in the first round (or Covid equivalent) in each of the last four years. This has led many people to lose faith in the vision the team has put forth and demand change.

In my opinion, the Leafs already could have won a Stanley Cup with the players they had but just didn’t. I think its an objective fact that they are superior to two of the last four finalists (Dallas and St.Louis) and just as good as the other two.

Despite the obvious logic that a professional league with a salary cap will have parity, and despite the mountain of supporting evidence I have used literally dozens of times to support my argument, it always seems to make some people extremely angry to hear an argument that a team is just unlucky.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Concept of Luck

When it comes to professional sports, most fans have (in my opinion) a weird hang-up about luck. In my experience of almost ten years writing about hockey on the internet, the one thing that has blown my mind the most is that a lot of people do not believe in luck.

I guess I just took it for granted that luck was real in the same way I take for granted the fact that the earth is round or that a person wouldn’t survive jumping off the CN tower, despite never testing the theories personally.

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Psychological speaking, I assume it’s because we feel that if sports teams can control their own destinies through hard work and determination, that we can to; that through sports we can view life in the way that we wish it really was, which is to say fair, controllable and where the best and most deserving are the ones who win.

But life isn’t really like that, and neither are sports.

The one thing I always come back to when it comes to luck is the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa sandwiched missing the playoffs once, and losing in one of the biggest upsets ever, around a Stanley Cup, a loss in the Finals and a loss in the final four.

If that doesn’t demonstrate to you the variance of a professional sports league, I don’t know what to tell you.

The Leafs lost to Columbus by only one goal over five games despite the fact that Columbus put up a 98% save percentage at even-strength, which is an NHL record.

It is also something that is 100% based on luck because a) the Leafs got more dangerous scoring chances per minute vs Columbus than they did in the regular season where they finished as the second highest scoring team, and b) the literal best defensive team of all time vs the literal worst offensive team of all time would not be likely to achieve a 98% save percentage over five games, even if they also had the best goalie of all time. It is just so incredibly improbable as to not even worry about.

I could also point out that the Leafs were something like the 5th best team in the NHL in games Michael Hutchinson didn’t play (and that’s counting the Babcock six game losing streak), or I could mention how the Leafs put up the same on-ice stats as the best teams in the league but had a remarkably lower save percentage, something the math says is…..wait for it……entirely based on luck!

I could mention the Leafs were the NHL’s 8th best team after Keefe took over, even though they played half of their games without their best defenseman, and another half of those games without their other best defenseman.

I could mention how they play in the same division as the two best teams in the NHL over the last five years, and how incredibly dumb the playoff formatting is that almost guarantees them a first round match up against a Cup Favorite.

I could mention how the NHL’s penchant for calling even-up penalties disproportionally affects them, or how they took Boston to game seven twice even though hero-once-he’s-not-here-anymore Nazem Kadri took two straight suspensions, both of which were ridiculous punishments by the league.

I could mention how for some reason the Toronto Maple Leafs play-in series this summer featured a significantly lower amount of power plays than most of the rest of the series.

If I did bring up any of this stuff, you’d say I was just making excuses. I say it’s just unlucky. A lot of other teams were unlucky too. The Dallas Stars had no business making the Finals, but luck matters – they got lucky!

The Leafs could easily already have won a couple of Cups with this group. They just didn’t get the bounces. If you want to win, you need to get the bounces to go your way. Keep doing the right thing and eventually they will.