Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Already Better Than Nathan MacKinnon

The Toronto Maple Leafs have not won a major NHL award in recent memory.

Members of the Toronto Maple Leafs have won the Selke (Gilmour) the Lady Byng (Mogilny) and the Calder (Matthews) in the last 30 years, but you’d have to go back to pre-expansion days to find  them winning one of the awards anyone actually cares about.

No Vezina, Hart, Norris or Art Ross for anyone on the Leafs since since the NHL expanded from six to twelve teams.  Pretty pathetic.

But that is about to change, because Auston Matthews is going to win the Hart Trophy eventually. It will perhaps happen when this season eventually begins, or maybe it happens next year, or the year after, I just know its going to happen.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Hart Trophy

At one point, it would have been ludicrous to suggest that Auston Matthews would ever surpass Connor McDavid as the NHL’s best player.  I’m not saying it’s happened yet, but the concept is no longer ridiculous.  Matthews is a better goal scorer and a better defender, so if he starts coming closer to McDavid’s 1.5 points per game (as he scored last year) we may have to have that conversation.

For now, however, let us be content with the  idea that it is very likely that Matthews is likely the second best player currently in the NHL, and will win a Hart Trophy one day, even if he never gets the unanimous title of Undisputed Best Player in the Game.

Whether you look at the NHL’s most recent Hart Trophy Votes or a Player’s Poll, it is pretty clear that almost everyone considers that right now, Nathan MacKinnon is standing between Matthews and McDavid.

Statistically, I don’t think that’s true, but perception is a powerful drug.

Last year, in a comparison of the on-ice stats between Matthews and MacKinnon (how the team performed with the player on the ice) we saw that Matthews had a higher Corsi, Shot-Percentage, Scoring Chance Percentage, High Danger Scoring Chance Percentage,  and Expected Goals Percentage than MacKinnon.  (All stats naturalstattrick.com and 5v5).

Owing to a higher on-ice shooting percentage, MacKinnon put up seven more 5v5 points, but Matthews scored 12 more goals.  The stats say that Matthews was the better player, just slightly less lucky when it comes to his linemates burying the puck. And to be fair, MacKinnon had less ice time than Matthews did.  If MacKinnon played an 70 minutes, he would likely have another goal and maybe three points more, but the point is that he’s still not catching Matthews actual goal total, and I think that’s the most important difference between the two players.

Keep in mind also that Matthews has played three less seasons than Nathan MacKinnon, and is two years younger.  Matthews today blows away the MacKinnon of three years ago. If Matthews is better today, just how good will he be in three years? Its a question that should haunt NHL goalies. In MacKinnon’s fourth NHL season he had 16 goals and 53 points in 82 games.  Matthews fourth season saw him get 47 goals and 80 points in 70 games.

The only measure in which MacKinnon is better than Matthews today is by total points.  MacKinnon had seven more 5v5 points, and six more PP points.  Most of that difference is made up by secondary assists, which we know for a fact are luck-based.  There is also the fact that MacKinnon was second among forwards in power-play ice time, while Matthews was 29th.

Once again, popular opinion is seen to be incorrect when you actually measure performance instead of just guess.  Auston Matthews didn’t win the Hart Trophy, but he had statistically superior seasons to both Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon, at least my certain measurements.  You can use WAR, and MacKinnon comes out on top. You can look at the success of their respective linemates, or the fact that with Tavares playing behind him, Matthews might get easier assignments.

There is no “right answer” and the perception is that MacKinnon is better.  I personally feel that we should account more for actual goals (that we don’t is why WAR has Matthews as the worse player).  The fact that the two players have virtually identical numbers in everything except actual 5v5 goals, is why I give the title to Matthews.  Goals matter and Matthews didn’t rack up a bunch of power-play goals or pad his stats with a shooting percentage bender.  He scored 47 goals, led the NHL in 5v5 goals, and if anything, should have had more goals, not less.

In my opinion, as of right now, Matthews is the NHL’s second-best player, and he’s primed to win a Hart Trophy.