Toronto Maple Leafs: Michael Hutchinson’s Costly Season

During the 2019-20 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs could not buy a save from their two most common starting goaltenders.

It is quite remarkable just how much the Toronto Maple Leafs were able to accomplish in front of the shaky goaltending of Frederik Andersen and Michael Hutchinson last year. Andersen, the Leafs starter since he was acquired via trade from the Anaheim Ducks in June of 2016, experienced his first down season with the original six franchise.

Although being named an all-star for the first time in his career, Andersen was unable to be the rock in net Toronto needed, posting a 2.85 goals-against average and a .909 save-percentage (stats; hockey-reference), below standard for the Danish netminder. By NHL standards, that could be considered very average, which is why Andersen’s play did not hurt the Leafs as much as it could have. It was in the games played by Hutchinson (4-9-1) where management recognized the need to address the position and find a better solution (stats; hockey-reference).

Moving on From Hutchinson

For me, I believe the tipping point for Kyle Dubas to finally look for a steadier backup goaltender was during the game against the Florida Panthers on February 3rd. The Leafs were playing some of their best hockey through a period and a half, when, unfortunately, Andersen was bumped into and seemed to come up gingerly after the play.

Due to Andersen’s history of concussions and neck injuries, the Leafs doctors decided it was the safer move to replace Andersen in net with Hutchinson. After all, Toronto looked really solid thus far and believed they could stay afloat with Hutchinson behind them.

Hutchinson came in and helped give the Leafs a 2-1 lead heading into the third, while outshooting the Panthers 27-11. The team in front of him had the confidence that he would be able to give them 30 minutes of solid goaltending, but sadly that hope slowly began to die.

One by one, the shots continued to fool Hutchinson and the team ended up losing the game 5-3 in a key matchup against a divisional rival and a direct competitor for the final playoff spot in the Atlantic. Two days later, following another Hutchinson loss at the hands of the Rangers, Dubas swung a trade and acquired Jack Campbell from the Los Angeles Kings.

How Much Hutchinson Hurt the Leafs

The thought will always be there of just how much the Barrie native costed the Leafs during his 15-game stint with the team this past season. In the games started by any goaltender outside Hutchinson, Toronto was 32-16-8, a 105-point pace over a full 82 game season. That is not insignificant. I realize we cannot just remove the games started by a goaltender who played bad, but even if Hutchinson played to his career averages, the Leafs still would have done tremendously better.

Taking the 14 games Hutchinson received a decision in for the Leafs in 2019-20 and plugging in his career goals-against average of 2.70 prior to 2019-20, instead of the 3.66 he registered with the Leafs over the same number of games, it is evident Hutchinson’s play greatly hampered his team’s results.

If Toronto even received average Michael Hutchinson goaltending, their record improves from 4-9-1 to 9-5 with the backup netminder, a solid 9-point standings swing. Instead of finishing 8th in the eastern conference and having to match up against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a totally random play-in series, the Leafs would have finished tied for third with 90 points along with the Washington Capitals.

It is not as if he received little goal support as well. As a matter of fact, in half of Hutchinson’s starts, the Leafs scored more than 4+ goals (stats; hockey-reference). If we drop it down to 3+ goals, the number jumps to 11 of Hutchinson’s 14 starts. If only Hutchinson demonstrated moderately better goaltending, Kyle Dubas would not have lost a solid bottom-six winger in Trevor Moore in his pursuit to find a capable backup goalie.

One more stat to contextualize just how bad Michael Hutchinson was for Toronto; of the 60 goaltenders with an even-strength Fenwick-against (goals + shots on goal + missed shots) of at least 475, Hutchinson was 55th in terms of goals above replacement (stats; evolving-hockey).

In the end, Michael Hutchinson’s poor play may have been beneficial for both parties. The Toronto Maple Leafs ended up with one of the best backups in the league and potentially their future starter, and Hutchinson played an integral role in the Avalanche pushing the western conference champs to seven games.