Toronto Maple Leafs: Why The 5 Year Matthews Contract Makes Sense

In February 2019 the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Auston Matthews to a five year contract with a cap hit of $11.6 million.

When Auston Matthews signed his five-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs  many were upset that it wasn’t the maximum eight years. Many speculated that Matthews wanted a shorter deal so he could become an Unrestricted Free Agent sooner and leave Toronto.

Now, that could very well happen, but I don’t think Matthews will leave at the end of this deal. I believe this five-year contract is a great move by Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas. It all boils down to how best to use the cap during Matthews’s prime years.

Players are more likely to sign shorter deals after their Entry Level Contract (ELC) than after their first big contract of seven or eight years. So it makes sense for Dubas and the Leafs to sign Matthews for the short term now and longer-term later.

Matthews will be 26 at the end of his current contract. If the Leafs had signed him to an eight-year deal, he would be 29 at the end of that deal. By doing the shorter deal now, Dubas can then sign Matthews for eight years after this deal and have Matthews for all his prime years. Matthews could be playing for Toronto until he’s 34.

This is riskier, but the gamble is that by signing him to a five year deal first, the team isn’t forced to sign a player to a max-deal for his entire thirties.

Matthews And Current Deal With The Toronto Maple Leafs

In the first year of his new deal, Matthews was on pace to reach 50 goals for the first time in his early NHL career.  That likely achievement was halted by the NHL stopping the 2019-20 season due to the coronavirus pandemic.  Matthews had 47 goals in 70 games in the shortened season.

With the ongoing pandemic and the NHL not wanting to lose the 2020-21 season, they might play another shortened season with a minimum of 48 games. That will put another damper on Matthews’s point totals for the second season in a row. (nhl.com).

If that is the case, then Matthews might only get the chance to have three full seasons to make the most out of his five-year deal. With that being said, three full seasons should be enough time for Matthews to be the first Leafs player to reach 50 goals in a season since Dave Andreychuk scored 53 goals during the 1993-94 season.

If Matthews would have signed an eight-year deal in 2019, he would be 29 at the end of that deal and would be seeking another long term deal after that for security. Two consecutive contracts at eight years each would have Matthews playing in Toronto until he’s 37.

Matthews is currently making $11.634 million on his five-year deal. If he does indeed sign an eight-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2024, it could be for around $13 million. Matthews will be 34 at the end of that deal, meaning the Leafs or another team could have him for the end of his career on shorter, cheaper deals.

On the other hand, if he ended up signing an eight-year contract in 2019, it would have been closer to the $12.5 million a year that Connor McDavid is making in Edmonton. If you follow that up with another eight-year contract, you could have a $14 million cap hit for a player who will be 37 by the end of the deal.

It makes more sense to pay Matthews around $13 million when he’s 34 than it does to pay him around $14 million when he’s 37.