Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Poised to Outscore Stamkos

Auston Matthews has been scoring ever since his first game with the Toronto Maple Leafs and he won’t be stopping any time soon.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs were able to complete the 2019-20 schedule as originally planned, Auston Matthews was on pace to score 55 goals. That would have been the highest of his career and put him in the top spot all-time for the organization.

Involved in the close race for the Maurice Richard Trophy most of the season, Matthews kept up with superstars Alex Ovechkin and David Pastrnak in a battle to the finish. Although he didn’t take home the award, the competition surely pushed him into another tier of scoring.

Matthews accumulated 47 goals last season, which is his highest thus far. What’s more impressive is that he did it in a shortened 70-game season. He netted 40 in his rookie campaign, as his second-highest total, yet required all 82 games to do so.

Pacing for Positive Progress

Here’s his goal-scoring pace through his first four campaigns with the Maple Leafs:
2016-17: 0.49 goals per game
2017-18: 0.55 goals per game
2018-19: 0.54 goals per game
2019-20: 0.67  goals per game

Outside of similarities through 2017-18 and 2018-19, Matthews has shown progress in his pace throughout his career. At 23 years old, entering the prime of his playing years, there are no indications of him slowing down.

Considering what Matthews has achieved through his early years in this league, especially when compared to other active first overall picks, he’s paving a clear path for even more ahead of him. His overall game is improving, while his scoring ability continues to take major strides.

What Next Year Will Bring

With the details of an upcoming season still unconfirmed, what we can assume is that it won’t be a full 82-game schedule. So, regardless of what Matthews is able to accomplish through it, his numbers may seem skewed when compared to what he’s done within other complete campaigns.

With their recent roster upgrades, Matthews will now have some additional support throughout the lineup to further propel his play. Players like Joe Thornton and Wayne Simmonds may not be expected to score like they once did, yet their impact could prove invaluable.

Thornton and Simmonds are both big bodies who know how to utilize their physicality while producing. This directly aligns with where Matthews can take further leaps with his performance. Plus, infusing more strength into the roster will allow Matthews additional freedom in his play.

Scoring More Than Stamkos

Steven Stamkos is the most recent superstar to tally 60 in a season. He accomplished the feat in 2011-12, which was his fourth year in the league. Although he’s a known goal scorer, he hasn’t necessarily illustrated career consistency.

Stamkos achieved a scoring pace of 0.73 goals per game in his 60-goal campaign. His year prior had a pace of 0.55 goals per while the following season dipped down to 0.60. When you compare that to Matthews’ trend, it would seem plausible that we’ll see him score even more.

As Matthews continues to progress and develop, so do his teammates. With such a young core, they are growing together. This pushes them each to higher levels in this play, which complements what they can accomplish both collectively and individually.

Improving upon his pace of 0.67 goals per game from last season seems more than likely for Matthews in the years to come. Needing to increase his prowess by only 0.06/game to be at a 60-goal pace, it’s plausible that we’ll witness him score even more than that in the near future.

Time will tell what he’ll do next, but it’s certainly not unforeseen that we’ll see Matthews join the 60-goal club sooner rather than later. His only deterrent at this time could be the failure to fit in a full season, but that won’t stop fans from seeing him light the lamp along the way.