Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL 21 Simulation of 2020-21 Season

The Toronto Maple Leafs and EA Sports are a winning combo.

Welcome to part one of the “NHL 21 Simulation: How do the Toronto Maple Leafs do?” series. 

Just this past month, EA Sports released their newest version of their hockey video game, NHL 21. Since making its debut on October 16th, the newest installment from the esports franchise has dominated the talk over the past couple of weeks.

The game makers have given an outlet for fans to get their daily hockey fix, adding new features such as HUT Rush, a revamped Be A Pro mode, and a ton of gameplay additions. NHL 21 has really been a bright spot in a quiet time period with little action in the hockey world as of late.

With that in mind, and with all the new signings and trades this team has made, let’s put the new Leafs roster through several season simulations and see how this team does. But before we start, as with any experiment, we must first establish some rules and caveats.

Rules:

This part will be the first piece in a three-part series detailing the Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 21 simulation. For this article, the Leafs will be competing in their regular Atlantic Division, going up against powerhouses like the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins.

Although the NHL has not decided how many games they will be playing in 2020-21, for this exercise the Toronto Maple Leafs will be competing in a full 82-game season. As for lineups, due to the vast changes across the whole division and the league alike, I let the developers from EA decide on the Leafs opponents’ lineups. But without Barabanov and Lehtonen in the game, who will both surely make an impact on this roster, I made Keefe’s lineup look as follows:

Hyman – Matthews – Nylander

Mikheyev – Tavares – Marner

Kerfoot – Thornton – Robertson

Vesey – Spezza – Simmonds

Rielly – Brodie

Muzzin – Holl

Dermott – Bogosian

Andersen

Campbell

To get an accurate result with little variance, doing the simulation just a single time would not be enough. As a result, we will be running this simulation 10 times to gain a more accurate depiction of how the Leafs season might play out. And lastly, I have turned off trades and injuries to ensure we see how the current Leafs roster as well as the rest of the league does over the course of the full season.

Results:

Simulation #1:

Reg. Season Finish: 40-36-6 (86 points), 5th in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Did Not Qualify.

One Key Stat (all in 82 GP unless specified): Marner: 13 goals.

Simulation #2:

Reg. Season Finish: 46-32-4 (96 points), 3rd in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 1.

One Key Stat: Campbell: .920 SVP and 2.10 GAA in 20 games.

Simulation #3:

Reg. Season Finish: 48-26-8 (104 points), 3rd in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 1.

One Key Stat: Matthews: 50 goals, 92 points.

Simulation #4:

Reg. Season Finish: 41-31-10 (92 points), 4th in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 1.

One Key Stat: Rielly led the team with 49 assists.

Simulation #5:

Reg. Season Finish: 39-35-8 (86 points), 4th in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 2.

One Key Stat: Andersen: .907 SVP and 2.74 GAA.

Simulation #6:

Reg. Season Finish: 50-29-3 (103 points), 1st in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 1.

One Key Stat: Thornton: 14 goals, 48 points.

Simulation #7: 

Reg. Season Finish: 48-25-9 (105 points) 1st in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 1.

One Key Stat: Hyman: 28 goals, 65 points.

Simulation #8:

Reg. Season Finish: 46-32-4 (96 points), 3rd in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Round 2.

One Key Stat: Tavares: 35 goals, 68 points.

Simulation #9 :

Reg. Season Finish: 42-36-4 (82 points), 4th in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Did Not Qualify.

One Key Stat: Nylander: 11 goals.

Simulation #10:

Reg. Season Finish: 41-35-6 (88 points), 5th in Atlantic.

Playoff Finish: Did Not Qualify.

One Key Stat: Kerfoot: 19 goals, 40 points.

Final Stats:

Average reg. season finish: 93.8 points

Best reg. season finish: Simulation #7 – 48-25-9 (105 points) 1st in Atlantic.

Best playoff finish: Simulation #5 and #8 – Eliminated in Round 2.

Best player season: Simulation #3 – Matthews: 50 goals, 92 points.

Analysis:

While the makers of NHL 21 seem to not like the Leafs chances for this upcoming season, a couple of things need to be mentioned. The video game itself is similar to real-life hockey in a lot of ways, however, differs in some ways as well. Particularly, the video game version relies more on offense and values defense a lot less. The game rewards the more skilled team and penalizes the less skilled.

You would think that would help the Toronto Maple Leafs, but alas, not in these ten simulations.

NHL 21 is probably underrating the Leafs chances for this upcoming season a little bit. While I do not see them steamrolling the Atlantic division, I also do not believe the 93.8 average points is an accurate estimation of this team’s potential finish.

In the end, there is no merit in explaining away the results, however, it is important to contextualize them. It is entirely possible Kyle Dubas’ moves do not pan out the way he hoped they would and his team continues to fall to their postseason expectations. It is also entirely possible his moves greatly impact this team and the Leafs finally conquer their playoff demons.

Analyzing the Leafs moves through the video game in this first part of our NHL 21 simulation was very enjoyable. Stay tuned for part two!