10 Thoughts on Life and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Welcome to the second edition of the “31 Thoughts” 10 Thoughts: Life & the Toronto Maple Leafs!

Over the past couple of weeks, Kyle Dubas has drastically changed the genetic makeup of the Toronto Maple Leafs  roster, and I feel confident in saying that they have improved for the better. Take a look at some of the players we, unfortunately, had to say goodbye to but have the grateful opportunity to welcome into our franchise:

Out –> In: 

Tyson Barrie –> TJ Brodie

Cody Ceci –> Zach Bogosian

Kyle Clifford –> Wayne Simmonds

Frederik Gauthier –> Joe Thornton

Kasperi Kapanen –> Jimmy Vessey

Kasimir Kaskisuo –> Aaron Dell

Andreas Johnsson –> Joey Anderson

Pontus Aberg –> Travis Boyd

Add in Alexander Barabanov and Mikko Lehtonen who were signed as free agents out of the KHL during the NHL pause and we are talking about possibly nine new players who could suit up for Toronto next season. That is quite the roster turnover. It is probably safe to assume this will be more or less the pool of players Sheldon Keefe will be able to pick his lineup from but there are still so many unknowns regarding the 2020-21 season.

What happens with the Marlies? Is the AHL going to have a season? How are the Toronto Maple Leafs prospects performing who are currently on loan? Do the Leafs actually have more cap space than we think? All that and more in this week’s edition of 10 Thoughts on Life and the Leafs!

Thought #1: The Marlies might travel alongside the Leafs?

Appearing on a recent episode of the Steve Dangle Podcast, Chris Johnston dropped a little bit of news for the viewers, specifically on how next season might unfold. He mentioned an idea floating around where we would see each NHL team be divided into two groups: an A-team and a B-team. The A-team would essentially be the main club (the NHL squad) and the B-team would be the minor club (the AHL squad).

The B-team would travel with the A-team wherever they went and would subsequently play the A-team’s opposing team’s B-team before the main clubs play each other. Now, that is a lot of words and maybe a little confusing so here’s a prime example: Let’s say Toronto is going to Vancouver to take on the Canucks. The Marlies – the B-team – would travel with the Toronto Maple Leafs and take on Vancouver’s AHL affiliate, the Utica Comets, either in the morning or afternoon on the same day the Leafs and Canucks are scheduled to square off.

Obviously, this is all speculation at this point, but this would be a massive advantage for the Leafs as they would be able to yo-yo their waiver-exempt players back and forth between the two teams in order to stay cap compliant for that specific day and allow their scratched players to get games in with the B-team instead of sitting in the press box.

With Toronto right up against the cap, and with Kyle Dubas reiterating this in a press conference recently, just like they did in 2019-20…

Thought #2: Might we see the Leafs run with a 20-man roster?

Coupled with the previous thought,  it would make all the sense in the world for the Leafs to run with a 20-man roster next season. But lost in all of this discussion about the Leafs potential roster is just how much cap space Toronto could actually enter the 2020-21 season with.

If Keefe went with a lineup of,

Hyman – Matthews – Nylander

Mikheyev – Tavares – Marner

Kerfoot – Thornton – Simmonds

Vesey – Spezza – Barabanov

Rielly – Brodie

Muzzin – Holl

Dermott – Bogosian

Andersen

Campbell

This 20-man lineup would net the Leafs $1.37 million in cap space. Now, I do not believe this is what the lineup will look like come opening night (more on that next), but the purpose of this exercise is to show just how much cap space the Leafs could actually have should they run with the minimal lineup and send down most of their waiver-exempt players to the minors, including Mikko Lehtonen.

But you might question why the Toronto Maple Leafs would only run a minimal lineup if they had the space to avoid doing so. This way, they could keep the space and use it to upgrade their roster at the deadline as the more space you have when the season starts, the more it grows by the time the deadline arrives.

Similarly, with a ton of restricted free agents also without new deals for next season, the opportunity to strike on an unfortunate situation between player and team may be there for Dubas to take advantage of. With the forward group already pretty deep, any further addition will most likely come on the backend, where defensemen like Ryan Pulock, MacKenzie Weegar, or Vince Dunn could be had a discounted price. A 20-man roster would give the Leafs enough cap space to accommodate a salary of that nature.

Thought #3: What my ideal lineup would look like.

Just before we transition away from the roster conversation, let’s compare who would slot in where in my ideal lineup against what I actually believe will happen.

My ideal lineup:

Robertson – Matthews – Nylander

Hyman – Tavares – Marner

Kerfoot – Thornton – Mikheyev

Simmonds – Spezza – Barabanov

Rielly – Brodie

Muzzin – Holl

Lehtonen –Bogosian

Dermott

Andersen

Campbell

What I think will happen:

Hyman – Matthews – Nylander

Mikheyev – Tavares – Marner

Kerfoot – Thornton – Simmonds

Vesey – Spezza – Barabanov

Rielly – Brodie

Muzzin – Holl

Dermott – Lehtonen

Bogosian

Andersen

Campbell

In the end, it probably makes little sense to sit here debating who plays where at the end of October with still probably more than two months before the season starts again. And likewise, with such an uncertain season coming up, the Leafs lineup will most likely be changed 100 times before the playoffs begin again.

Thought #4: How are the Leafs loans doing in Europe.

Currently, Toronto has two key players on loans in the KHL, Mikko Lehtonen and Egor Korshkov, where both have been playing some of the best hockey of their careers. Lehtonen, as a defensemen, is back-boning Jokerit’s blueline, and sits 10th league-wide in points, with 8 goals and 16 points in 14 games.

Korshkov, a 6”4, 214 lbs winger, has really found his scoring touch in Russia. Leading Lokomotiv with 12 points in 16 games this season, Korshkov looks like he is finally panning out to be the big, power-forward, scoring winger Toronto would enjoy.

While Lehtonen will surely be able to make an impact on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster this season, Korshkov will probably have to really impress in camp if he wants to factor into the Leafs bottom six mix, but even then, the experience he is gaining currently leading his team and playing a huge factor in their success may prove too valuable to pry him away from Russia.

Thought #5: Ilya Mikheyev took less money.

According to his agent, Dan Milstein, Mikheyev and Kyle Dubas had already agreed on a previously higher cap hit than the one he signed of $1.645 million. The reason for the winger’s concession was he wanted to help the organization be able to fit under the salary cap ceiling when the 2020-21 season starts and not force the Leafs to have to trade out anyone else in the process.

Therein lies the reason why Kyle Dubas can afford to pay four players such a large sum of their available cap space. Finding players who are willing to play for less who can also contribute to the teams’ success in a higher capacity than their cap hit would suggest has been the mantra of the Dubas Era. Having inked depth players such as Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, Zach Bogosian, and Jason Spezza on below-market value contracts has allowed the Leafs to maintain their “studs and duds” approach.

Immediately following the Mikheyev signing, naysayers argued the “pay-cut” was a publicity stunt pulled off by his agent to appeal to the fanbase and improve the Russian winger’s standing among Leaf fans. They suggested Mikheyev never took a pay-cut and the $1.645 he agreed to was always going to be the value on his contract.

My question is how does this make any sense at all? There is no need for Mikheyev to pull off a show like this. He is already beloved by anyone who watches this team. Following his first career NHL game, after scoring his first career NHL goal, all Mikheyev wanted to talk about in his post-game presser was how he loves soup. Leafsnation instantly fell in love. His popularity grew even further when in a mid-season game against the Oilers, Mikheyev scored a goal from in tight, destroying the in-net camera, and later genuinely apologized for breaking it.

Thought #6: Dave Feschuk, Toronto Star.

A few days ago, Dave Feschuk of the Toronto Star published an article titled “The Maple Leafs’ salary gap could divide the dressing room if the stars don’t earn their keep”. His premise was the difference in salary among Toronto’s star forwards in comparison to their depth players will cause a stir in the locker room.

Feschuk argues, once the Leafs “Big Four” take notice of Mikheyev’s contract, their reaction would negatively affect the locker room.  Do you really think a guy like John Tavares, the well-respected and adored captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs, could have someone in the locker room dislike him? During the 2019 offseason, the Leafs were faced with a lot of roster turnover and it was Tavares, before the captaincy, who was the one to welcome all the new faces. Tavares texted Alex Kerfoot immediately following the trade and organized a dinner with him and Tyson Barrie soon after the former Avs landed in Toronto.

Someone who goes out of his way to take care of his teammates in such a sincere and compassionate manner I find it hard to believe would have some of his players hating him. Similarly, Mitch Marner has proven to be the happy-go-lucky, positive attitude this team has needed several times over the last couple of seasons.

Remember, when Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas were preparing to deliver the inevitable news coach Mike Babcock had been fired, they were on a road trip with the injured Marner remaining in Toronto to rehab his high-ankle sprain. The team felt his presence should be felt around the locker room with such apprehensive news on the way, so MLSE flew the assistant captain out to Arizona so he could be the motivating and upbeat spirit the Leafs needed at the time.

I find it really hard to believe you will find someone in the Leafs locker room with negative things to say about the Leafs captain or alternate captain.

Thought #7: The Leafs “grit” additions are not going to drastically change their play.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen Kyle Dubas bring in grittier players, mostly in the form of Wayne Simmonds and Zach Bogosian. While I am a massive fan of both signings and believe both will make positive contributions on and off the ice, I want to warn fans to temper their expectations.

This team will ride and die on the backs of their big stars and are not going to suddenly change their playstyle due to two new additions. In terms of “grit”, this Toronto Maple Leafs roster will largely resemble that of last year’s team. Simmonds will be replacing the departed Kyle Clifford and although Bogosian brings a lot to the table that I like, he is unlikely to play every game.

So how much can you count on the Leafs style to change from adding a bottom-six winger and a 6th or 7th defensemen? I argue not a whole lot from their on-ice play, but off-ice is where you will see the Leafs reap the rewards.

Keefe mentions how he wants to make the current Leafs “harder to play against” regardless of the additions in free agency. This remains the point Leaf fans should be focusing on. Simmonds and Bogosian will surely play their role in transforming this team, but this team will not become harder to play against without the buy-in from the top-down, starting with the “Big Four”.

Another wrinkle not getting enough attention is countless times on the broadcast, on-ice reporter Ray Ferraro would mention how the Leafs bench did not look “lively” and when they were down, no one stepped up to rally the bench. I would bet the complete opposite will happen in 2020-21.

How could you possibly have a quiet bench with the voices of ‘Jumbo’ Joe Thornton, Simmonds, and Bogosian joining this roster? The Toronto Maple Leafs bench will definitely look a lot livelier and louder come 2020-21.

Thought #8: Healthy competition with so much depth.

For as long as I can remember, the Toronto Maple Leafs have never been this deep at all three positions. I believe one thing that has been missing from previous training camps may have been the healthy competition that comes with deep franchises.

Take this Travis Dermott quote for example:

While what the newly resigned defensemen is saying applies to every aspect of this roster, the sentiment remains the same: players are going to challenge themselves and challenge each other to be the best Maple Leaf they can be because they know if they do not perform, there are two or three guys behind them, working their ass off, itching to get into the lineup.

I expect most, if not all, players who do not have a guaranteed spot in Keefe’s lineup to come motivated and determined to camp, looking to take a strangle-hold on their position. Couple this with the fact Dermott signed a one-year, prove-it deal, and he is atop my list of players to watch for in training camp.