Toronto Maple Leafs: Projecting the 2020-2021 Forward Lines

Let’s call this 1A

While at first the top lines seem  obvious for the Leafs, there are a few combinations that Keefe can and likely will turn to throughout the season. The Leafs are spoiled with having two first-line quality centres in John Tavares and Auston Matthews, likely resulting in more of a 1A/1B situation than having a true first line.

Matthews gets the nod on line 1A, clearly separating himself from Tavares as the Leafs most dominant player last season, scoring 47 goals and adding 33 assists for 80 points – a career-high in goals and points – in just 70 games. (Stats via Hockey Reference)

Matthews did most of his damage with Mitchell Marner and Zach Hyman flanking him, which would make it seem as though they would be the obvious choice to be his wingers. However, John Tavares also thrived playing alongside the pair in his debut season with the Leafs in 2018-2019, but struggled without Hyman at the beginning of last season, and didn’t seem as dynamic once Marner was taken off his line.

Meanwhile, Matthews, Nylander and Hyman burst on to the scene together and have to show the chemistry still exists. Although Marner and Matthews clearly enjoy playing with each other, there are a multitude of options, including a Marner-Matthews-Tavares super line, which was employed occasionally last year.

Marner and Hyman probably get the nod here alongside Matthews to begin the season, but look for Keefe to mix and match often. After all, Matthews has done just fine with William Nylander and others on his wings as well.

Line Two/1B

Let’s get this out of the way: John Tavares wasn’t the John Tavares of 2018-2019, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t good – great, even. The Leafs captain  spent much of the season playing through a hand injury, but he still managed to produce at a nearly point-per-game pace (60 points in 63 games), and consistently made the right play with the puck.

The largest drop in production came in the form of Tavares’ goal scoring, which decreased from a career-high of 47 in 2018-2019 to just 26 last season, mostly due to playing 19 less games. Tavares shot an absurdly high 16.4% in that career year and a regression was to be expected – and was not helped by his hand injury early in the season. (Stats via Hockey Reference)

Injury and contract negotiations also took Hyman and Marner away from his wing to begin last season, and Tavares never really got to build chemistry with his line, with so many injuries plaguing the Leafs up and down their lineup and a coaching change mid-season.

William Nylander is slotted to play the right side next to Tavares (though he may switch to left wing, which he did for part of the playoffs) after quietly having a very productive season alongside the Captain, scoring 31 goals and putting up some of the best on-ice stats in the NHL (Hockey Reference).

Ilya Mikhayev is the front-runner to play on the left side of those two although the competition for spots along side the stars will be strong. He showed considerable chemistry with Tavares and Marner to begin last season before being sidelined with a freak injury, and possesses a combination of size, speed, and a heavy shot that can play anywhere in the lineup.

This year, Tavares should get the chance to have some form of a training camp and pre-season to build up a rapport with his wingers and have a better start to the season. If this line struggles to get going to begin the season, Marner could be swapped with Nylander to add some more playmaking to this line and get more balance throughout the lineup.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Third Line

With Dubas’ work this offseason, the bottom of the Leafs lineup  is incredibly deep.

Kerfoot is the incumbent at centre on the third line and may also challenge for time with Tavares on the wing if Joe Thornton takes on a larger-than-expected role. Kerfoot is the Leafs best defensive forward and at 5v5 he scored at the same per minute rate as John Tavares did last season.  He had an excellent, if underappreciated, season last year.

Kerfoot excels on speedy lines that generate opportunities off the rush and from an aggressive forecheck. Two wingers who fit that mold are new addition Joey Anderson (acquired in exchange for Andreas Johnsson), and Kerfoot’s winger in the play-in series vs. Columbus, Nick Robertson.

Robertson scored one goal in the first four games of the series before being scratched in favour of the aforementioned Johnsson, who was returning from injury. Despite only appearing on the scoresheet once, Robertson was relentless on the forecheck and caused major problems for Columbus defensemen not named Werenski or Jones – earning him the first shot on this line.

Anderson is an unknown who says that he wants to bring many of the same qualities as Zach Hyman – work ethic, making the simple play – and is even buying into the comparison. He lacks the size that Hyman has (Hyman is 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier), but that doesn’t deter him from making his living in the dirty areas. He’s an ideal fit for this line, but there are several players who will be fighting for ice time, and a condensed schedule means we will likely see many different combinations.

Don’t be surprised if you see these three together to start the season, although I’d expect there to be a short leash on Robertson and Anderson as the Leafs have tremendous depth up front, and both are exempt from waivers.

The Fourth Line

Jason Spezza had just about as good of a season as anyone could have asked from him, recovering from being scratched by Mike Babcock for the home opener to play a pivotal role for the team.

The Leafs tripled down on the aging vets this year, signing Thornton and Simmonds to one-year deals not only to add scoring depth and size at the bottom of the lineup, but also to add leadership to the dressing room

Dubas and co. have to be hoping that adding two vocal, veteran leaders in Thornton and Simmonds to the group will help Keefe get through to his young players, and what better way to do so than putting them together and watch them work? Of course this leaves Pierre Engvall without a regular spot, and given his season last year, the Leafs will definitely want to work him into games.  That’s OK, however, as other than Kerfoot, none of the other players competing for ice time will likely play every game.

Simmonds-Thornton-Spezza is a nice combination though, and as long as their lack of speed doesn’t become too much of a problem, the trio of veterans would dominate matchups against other teams bottom lines, much like the Clifford-Spezza-Engvall line did last season.

On the Bubble

The Toronto Maple Leafs plan on manipulating the cap for maximum effect,  so they probably won’t ever carry the full 23 player roster (and 2 goalies) that NHL teams are allowed to carry. Because of this, having players on the fringe of the roster that can move freely between the AHL and NHL is paramount to this team.  With the AHL team being in Toronto, expect a lot of paper transactions, and players in the press box who aren’t officially on the team that night.

Along with Jimmy Vessey and Travis Boyd, expect Alexander Barabanov and Nic Petan to also factor into the Leafs lineup at some point as well.

Regardless of what Dubas and the Leafs have to do to get under the salary cap, they have an abundance of options available to them at forward.