10 Thoughts on Life and the Toronto Maple Leafs
Welcome to the first edition of the “31 Thoughts” Toronto Maple Leafs: 10 Thoughts!
Elliotte Friedman over at Sportsnet.ca runs a weekly podcast and subsequent article, detailing various rumblings he has heard around the league – his “31 Thoughts”. While his workings cover the entire NHL and all its teams, we are here because we are proud members of Leafsnation, so every “thought” in this article is going to relate to the Leafs.
With the offseason in full swing and several moves being made around the Leafs organization, Kyle Dubas has been busy. With still a couple more months until the season is supposedly going to start, is the Leafs GM done wheeling and dealing? Where does Joe Thornton play? Did the Leafs escape their perceived cap hell? Who gets the first crack alongside TJ Brodie?
With a lot of questions surrounding this team, let’s dive into this week’s “10 Thoughts”.
Thought #1: Kyle Dubas made the right decision.
While many of you will suggest it is easy to say this now that he has signed in Vegas, the fact remains Kyle Dubas made the right decision not pursuing Alex Pietrangelo as hard as he could have. In Dubas’ press conference following the TJ Brodie signing, he mentioned he had preliminary discussions with Pietrangelo’s agent, Don Meehan, but those did not get very far.
In hindsight, inking Brodie to a 4-year, $20 million deal and later Zach Bogosian to a 1-year, $1 million deal allowed the Leafs to create a deeper blueline that has not been this good in over a decade. Adding Pietrangelo to this roster would have further hindered their forward depth significantly, one that has already taken severe hits even without the addition of Pietrangelo.
As it stands right now, heading into 2020-21, the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline looks like this:
Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin – Justin Holl
Mikko Lehtonen – Travis Dermott
Rasmus Sandin – Zach Bogosian
Martin Marincin – Timothy Liljegren
In 2019-20, Martin Marincin was the Leafs 7th defensemen. With the blueline above, Marincin has now dropped all the way down to 9th on the depth chart. That is some nice tidy work by GM Dubas to significantly improve the depth of this team.
Thought #2: Expanded rosters.
With so much uncertainty regarding the status of the league next year, a lot of problems remain unanswered. The NHL, being the wealthiest professional hockey league in North America, will be able to survive this pandemic going into next year even if there are no fans in the building in the beginning.
But the same cannot be said for minor leagues such as the AHL or the OHL. Gary Bettman and Co. must decide what teams should do with their prospects so that their development is not hampered. One idea that is being floated around is allowing expanded rosters. Currently, each NHL franchise is allowed to carry a maximum of 23 players on their roster.
For the playoffs, each team was given extra roster spots or a “taxi squad” per se, which featured an additional eight skaters and as many goalies as the team would like. While there has been no concrete information indicating the league will be implementing expanded rosters, it is easy to assume there might be based on two factors:
First, Bettman has assured the league would like to play a full 82-game season next year. While that may not be plausible, in order to do so they would need to incorporate several more back-to-backs, three-in-fours, and maybe even four-in-sixes into the schedule. That type of taxing calendar can lead to a lot of injuries, hence the need for extra bodies.
Secondly, as previously mentioned, Dubas has significantly upgraded the depth of this team. We have seen the d-core vastly improved, and with the likes of Jimmy Vesey, Joey Anderson, Travis Boyd, and Alexander Barabanov joining the bottom six mix, the number of NHL-quality players on this roster is high.
Could this be an indication the team is hearing expanded rosters will be in place? No one knows but something to think about.
Thought #3: So much for the Leafs cap problems.
For the past two seasons, ever since the Toronto Maple Leafs inked John Tavares, all we have heard surrounding this team is how they are in “cap hell.” What we have seen this offseason is Kyle Dubas, who supposedly is in the worst cap situation in the league, move Kasperi Kapanen for an absolute haul and ship off Andreas Johnsson in exchange for the New Jersey Devil’s number #3 ranked prospect.
Julien BriseBois, GM of the reigning Stanley Cup champions, has three key RFAs to sign – Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak, and Mikhail Sergachev – with just under $3 million in cap space.
Just before free agency opened, the Lightning tried to move Tyler Johnson, a great middle-six center, but there were no takers. Tampa Bay got desperate and even waived the center and still there were no takers. They are in such a difficult cap position, they even approached captain Steven Stamkos – who has an $8.5 million cap hit – to see if he would waive his no-trade clause.
Similarly, GM Kelly McCrimmon of the Vegas Golden Knights wanted to make a big splash in free agency this offseason. Safe to say he did so but at what cost? He was forced to move on from Paul Stastny in exchange for Carl Dahlstrom and a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. Nate Schmidt, an A-level, first pairing defensemen, was shipped off for a lowly 3rd round pick in the 2022 draft.
Across the NHL, GMs have had incredibly difficult times trying to move money around, but Kyle Dubas stands atop the league, having arguably gained value in his perceived “cap dump” deals.
It would seem that the critics were wrong when they complained about the Leafs salary cap situation.
Thought #4: What is everyone’s problem with Joe Thornton?
Now that Joe Thornton is officially a Leaf, I have one question – why did some not want this to happen? Who does not want to see Joe Thornton, standing on the blueline in front of a sold-out Scotiabank Arena – assuming we have fans then – as Gary Bettman calls up John Tavares as he comes to receive Lord Stanley on behalf of the Leafs and watch as the first handoff goes to the 22-year NHL veteran, ‘Jumbo’ Joe. What a surreal moment that would be.
Apart from the phenomenal storyline, Thornton is still an effective player. I do not think it is fair to judge him based on his 2019-20 season. The Sharks as a whole struggled and he was anchored down by Marcus Sorensen & Kevin Labanc, who struggled as well. But his 2018-19 season? Thornton was flat-out dominant on both ends of the ice.
Joe Thornton 2018-19 advanced metrics: pic.twitter.com/9x5q0OB0Jx
— Stashy McDaddy (@bobbytrees69) October 15, 2020
It is safe to assume Thornton would be also tasked with easier minutes in Toronto. Playing 15:30 minutes a night last season in San Jose certainly attributed to Thornton’s struggles. With some rough estimations, Thornton will probably be asked for 10-12 minutes a night. That type of reduced ice time could drastically increase his effectiveness.
Now that ‘Jumbo’ Joe will officially be wearing the Blue and White this season, get ready for one of the best storylines to take place in front of our eyes in 2020-21.
Thought #5: Are the Toronto Maple Leafs the deepest team in the league in net?
For most of the 2019-20 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs were searching for an adequate solution in net. With starter Frederik Andersen going through a struggling season, and backup Michael Hutchinson’s inability to give the team in front of him a solid start, it is quite remarkable just how much the Leafs accomplished under Sheldon Keefe.
But heading into 2020-21, the problems that once plagued this team from the goaltending position are no more. Down the depth chart, the Leafs are staring at Frederik Andersen – the starter, Jack Campbell – the backup, and Aaron Dell – the third-stringer, the backups’ backup, and the Marlies starter.
How many NHL teams can say they employ a bonafide number one as well as not one, but two legitimate NHL backups? The Arizona Coyotes may be the Leafs closest competition with Darcy Kuemper, Antti Raanta, and Adin Hill. The Dallas Stars could also challenge with Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin, and Jake Oettinger. But none you could definitively say are better than the Leafs current situation.
With a condensed schedule (most likely) next season, each team is going to be playing a lot more back-to-backs. As a result, the risk of injury rises tremendously, so the need for depth at every position increases. Dubas has ensured the net is covered.
Thought #6: Mackenzie Weegar is probably not going to be a Leaf.
In Friedman’s latest “31 Thoughts”, he mentioned how the Panthers offered the Leafs MacKenzie Weegar in exchange for Travis Dermott and Andreas Johnsson, which Dubas rejected. On the podcast version, Friedman specifically said:
“The Toronto Maple Leafs were definitely in (on MacKenzie Weegar), I think the Florida Panthers made an ask – were looking at Johnsson (since traded to NJ) and Travis Dermott, and I think Toronto turned that down and then ended up with Brodie and Bogosian”
Because Johnsson was moved in a later trade, it is clear Dermott was the no-go part of that deal for Kyle Dubas. The Leafs are evidently really high on Dermott and want to run with him in the lineup next year.
Dubas adamantly said he will be playing the right side next season, and while that quote does not seem to fully close the door on the Weegar-to-Toronto story, the phrase “ended up with” leads me to believe Dubas wanted Weegar but not at that price and pivoted to the two other defensemen he acquired instead. This is all to say the Leafs are probably done adding to their blueline.
As for where the Newmarket, Ontario native will be playing…that leads me to my next thought.
Thought #7: Stop placing TJ Brodie alongside Jake Muzzin.
Do you know who are Morgan Rielly’s most common partners since he has joined the league? In order from 2013-14 until 2019-20, the list is as follows: Jake Gardiner, Roman Polak, Matt Hunwick, Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, Ron Hainsey, and Cody Ceci (source; The Athletic). Other than Jake Gardiner, that’s a downright appalling group of defensemen.
Going into this offseason, Kyle Dubas had one priority: finally acquire a legitimate partner for their number one defensemen. So that is exactly what Dubas did. The day free agency opened, the Leafs inked TJ Brodie, a bonafide top-pairing defensemen, to a four-year contract.
And now, after spending $20 million in order to find their “unicorn”, everyone has decided to take him away from their franchise defensemen. Morgan Rielly deserves the opportunity to play alongside an actual NHL defensemen. For years he has had so-called “anchors” weighing him down, but in 2020-21, Rielly deserves the opportunity to be free.
I envision Sheldon Keefe’s top-four on opening night to look something like this:
Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin – Travis Dermott
I do not know what is going to happen with Justin Holl. He and Muzzin formed the Leafs best pairing last season, but at $2 million, the question must be asked if that money is better allocated somewhere else in the lineup. Furthermore, as it stands right now, the Leafs best defensive prospect, Rasmus Sandin, is 8th on the depth chart, not the best spot to be in for his development. Would the Leafs be better off moving a defensemen to give Sandin more minutes?
The wild card in all of this is Mikko Lehtonen. Several trusted sources believe the “Finnish Bobby Orr” may be able to step into the Leafs top four right away. Check out this take on Lehtonen’s capabilities from the Head of European scouting at DobberProspects.com:
If he can play top-four minutes from the get-go, and Dermott proves he cannot handle the more difficult matchups, Keefe may be inclined to run a top four of Rielly-Lehtonen and Muzzin-Brodie. In this scenario, Rielly would still be getting a very good partner and the Leafs would be creating a monster of a defensive par. But for now, the two kids from Vancouver, BC and Chatham, ON will be given every chance to succeed together.
Thought #8: All Canadian Division for 2020-21?
Bill Foley, the owner of the Vegas Golden Knights, did a radio interview recently, and let a couple of interesting news pieces slip.
"I think they are going to be playing a Canadian division. I don't think they are going to be crossing the border."
— SinBin.vegas (@SinBinVegas) October 14, 2020
"Who knows if we are even going to play. If we aren't playing in front of fans a lot of teams can't make it."
-Foley on Sportsbook Radio
While the last part of that tweet may be a depressing reality hockey fans may have to face, for a minute let’s pretend that Foley never said that and turn our intention to the first part of that tweet. Due to COVID-19 restricting travel across the Canadian-American border, an All-Canadian division may make a lot of sense – and also probably give the Leafs an easier path to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Assuming the playoff format returns to the 2018-19 form, just with the new divisions, Toronto would not have to go through the likes of Boston or Tampa Bay to advance past the first round. Instead, most likely, they would be competing with Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, and Winnipeg for the top spot. But unlike before, the Leafs may be considered the best of that bunch, especially after this offseason.
The Oilers made no upgrades to their goaltending position and will be without their most important defensemen, Oscar Klefbom, for an extended period to start next season, if not, unfortunately, for the whole season.
The Canucks lost key UFAs Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, and Tyler Toffoli as well as promising youngster Troy Stecher. While Braden Holtby is no Markstrom, and without adequate replacements to take over for Toffoli and Stecher, it is conceivable to say Vancouver might be taking a step back next season.
In what almost looked like a failure of an offseason for GM Jim Benning, he managed to swing a deal for top-pairing defensemen Nate Schmidt which was a fantastic get, however, the damage may have been done.
The Flames did however make solid upgrades to their roster over the past week or so. Stealing Markstrom away from their provincial rival gives them a tremendous backbone in net and adding Tanev as a replacement for the departed TJ Brodie is a nice consolation prize as well.
The Jets, who once looked like Canada’s best shot at winning it all, have taken a serious beating to their core roster over the past two seasons. Losing Byfuglien, Trouba, Myers, and Chiarot as well as Little upfront took a massive toll on the Jets. Without bringing in solid players to replace those departed, the Jets look likely to disappoint again in 2020-21.
And in Toronto, the Leafs added a legitimate top-pair defensemen in Brodie, defensive depth and meanness in Zach Bogosian, and “functional toughness” in Wayne Simmonds.
Adding those pieces to the already established core of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Frederik Andersen, and the Toronto Maple Leafs may very well be on their way to exercising their first-round playoff demons.
Predicted standings:
1. Toronto
2. Calgary
3. Edmonton
4. Vancouver
5. Winnipeg
6. Montreal
7. Ottawa
Thought #9: Signing Joe Thornton does not make Alex Kerfoot expandable.
Believe it or not, Alex Kerfoot is an extremely important piece of this Toronto Maple Leafs roster.
His do-it-all positional versatility gives Sheldon Keefe several different lineup options, and with him being above-average defensively, the head coach can trust Kerfoot to be a key member of the Toronto Maple Leafs penalty kill. Add in the fact he is annoying to play against and the Leafs have a great middle-six forward on their hands.
Having not played an NHL game since March, no one really knows how Joe Thornton is going to look come the start of the season. Him playing games currently with HC Davos in Switzerland is a good sign, however, Dubas is a bright young man and is not going to give up Kerfoot, who played alongside John Tavares for most of last season, for someone who most likely is the Leafs 4C.
Even if Thornton becomes the Leafs new 3C, Kerfoot can play the wing, and frankly may be better there. He and ‘Jumbo’ could form two-thirds of one of the best third lines in the NHL, along with Ilya Mikheyev (but that is for another day).
Contract wise, signing a player to a $700,000 deal does not necessitate another move to clear a $3.5 million contract off the books. When Travis Boyd was signed to the same deal as Thornton, there was no talk about moving Kerfoot to fit in his contract.
Dubas has other moves he could make to remain cap compliant and I would expect an Engvall trade perhaps or a demotion as a result of the new signing.
Thought #10: Stick around for the next edition!
And just like that, we conclude our first-ever
“31 Thoughts”
Toronto Maple Leafs: 10 Thoughts!
Next. PLUS/MINUS: Thoughts on the Leafs and NHL. dark
I hope you all enjoyed reading as I think aloud about my favourite team and look for the second edition in the next couple of weeks.