Toronto Maple Leafs: A Potential Replacement for Freddie Andersen

When the Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the playoffs, there was a great deal of discussion surrounding Frederik Andersen’s future with the team.

The discussion has certainly died down recently, but there are still plenty of reason for Andersen should be on the trade block.  The largest question mark surrounding an Andersen trade is who would replace him as the Toronto Maple Leafs starting goalie.

Well there is one candidate who could be acquired in a trade that could be a perfect fit to run in a tandem with Jack Campbell.

His name is Petr Mrazek.

Toronto Maple Leafs Starting Goalie

Mrazek has been a highly successful goaltender over the past few seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes and also has one year left in his deal similar to Andersen.

Although the Hurricanes are one of the brightest organizations in the NHL, there is a situation where they value another goaltender over Mrazek. Ironically this goaltender could be Andersen himself as Elliotte Friedman had reported in the summer that the Hurricanes may be interested in Freddie.

If the Hurricanes happen to be among the list of teams interested in cutting salary, Andersen is a great target for them as his actual salary is only 1M this season according to cap friendly. While Mrazek is owed his full 3.125M salary this season given he was not given any bonuses.

Over the past 3-seasons there is a case that Mrazek is the better goalie than Andersen, and he costs less on the salary cap.  To break down the difference between the two goalies, let’s look at predictive numbers to see where each goalie fits in the picture.

Over the past 3 seasons Mrazek’s HDSV% is 0.836 (23/67 league wide) while Andersen’s is 0.815 (45/67). The reason I use HDSV% is because it has been proven to be more predictable year over year than other goalie stats. Furthermore, LDSV% is essentially a completely random set that has next to zero correlation year over year, basically meaning it’s random. (data from Natural Stat Trick).

To put it precisely, HDSV% is more repeatable and generally represents the capability of goaltenders better over a large sample. Mrazek is by far the more impressive goaltender between him and Andersen by this metric. According to Moneypuck, Mrazek has been an above average goaltender in each of the past two seasons, while Andersen really struggled last season which puts his standing below Mrazek’s over the past two seasons.

I think the main reason the Toronto Maple Leafs try to get a goalie such as Mrazek is because they believe he can be a capable starter in a tandem situation. He also likely won’t get paid in the same regard as Freddie moving forward. Andersen’s next contract could be a tough swallow for a guy regressing and going into this 30’s. The Leafs should try their best to avoid a Bobrovsky situation at all costs.

The reality with goalies is that they are so volatile, that you should be running a tandem in hopes that one of the goalies is hot at the moment. One of the main reasons the penguins won both of their recent cups is they had the ability to switch to the goaltender who was “going” at the time while the other goalie may have been struggling.

It seems as though the aspect of running two cheaper goalies in hopes that one will succeed will end up working out more than if you were to rely on a single goaltender.  Not to mention the aspect of load managing your goaltenders so they will be healthy before possibly a long playoff run.

Teams were able to run one starting goaltender in the dead puck era when goalies faced one high-danger shot per game, but with the way the current game is played, running one starting goalie is almost impossible to do with the burden on the body that goalies have to deal with every game.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs are able to somehow get a goalie in a trade as capable as Mrazek, I think their future in net moving forward could look encouraging.