The Tampa Bay Lightning winning a Stanley Cup continued to prove how close the Toronto Maple Leafs are from getting one of their own.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are an excellent hockey team that is only a few moves away from competing for a Stanley Cup. No, I’m not a delusional Leafs fan, I’m actually a realist.
Like everything in life, it’s all about giving yourself an opportunity to succeed. The more chances you get, the better fortune you’ll receive. In your current job, you may not have got that promotion you wanted, but if you continue to do excellent work, one day, it’ll happen. Similar to the Stanley Cup and the Leafs.
Since the team hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since 1967, fans are eager. We’re even more hungry because the Leafs haven’t got past the first round since 2004. But, can’t we all just chill for a bit?
Toronto Maple Leafs On Right Path
From 2004-2016, the Leafs never really had a good chance at competing for a championship. But now that the Leafs have this window of winning, fans go absolutely nuts that they haven’t won yet. You need to get lucky to win a cup, just look at Tampa Bay. They gave themselves a few chances in the past seven years and finally got their due.
The Washington Capitals and St. Louis Blues were the exact same way. They continued to make the playoffs with a strong core and they finally got lucky and won. Every good team isn’t going to win in their window, because the NHL has so much parity, but you have to believe in the process. San Jose Sharks fans obviously understand the struggle of having a great team for years, without winning.
They’ve made the playoffs 19 of the past 22 seasons without a title, so Leafs fans shouldn’t be as angry or bitter as Sharks fans.
But back to my point. The Leafs are actually very close to winning a Stanley Cup. Let’s look at the Goals Against Average, Goals For Average and Goal Differential for championship teams since 2006:
- Stanley Cup Winning Teams Since 2005-06 Season (stats: hockeydb.com):
- Goals For (GF): 3.09 Goals Per Game
- Goals Against (GA): 2.57 Goals Against Per Game
- Goal Differential (GD): +0.52 Goals Per Game
- Toronto Maple Leafs Teams Since Auston Matthews Arrived:
- 2016-17: 3.06 GF, 2.95 GA (+0.16 GD)
- 2017-18: 3.38 GF, 2.83 GA (+0.55 GD)
- 2018-19: 3.49 GF, 3.06 GA (+0.43 GD)
- 2019-20: 3.40 GF, 3.24 GA (+0.11 GD)
As you can see with these stats, the Leafs are hitting the Goals For average per game, but Goals Against is a huge problem. Even the Leafs best Goals Against season is much higher than the average season for a championship team.
Despite having a terrible Goal Differential in two of the past four seasons, the 2017-18 and 2018-19 runs were successful. In all fairness, the Leafs just fell into the trap of the Boston Bruins and lost a hard seven-game series. If the team continues to have a Goal Differential like those two seasons, they’ll have a better chance at winning than not.
It’s a pretty simple solution for the Leafs and moving huge scoring pieces like William Nylander and Mitch Marner is not the answer. Instead, if the team is able to bring down their Goals Against Average to around 2.80 or lower, the team has a chance at competing every single season.
I’m excited to see what happens in Free Agency, but if these numbers show anything, it’s that the team doesn’t need to spend $8M on one defenseman. Instead, playing a more defensive system with depth is the solution