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If This Doesn’t Get You Pumped Up for the Toronto Maple Leafs….

By James Tanner |
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 21: Auston Matthews #34 (C) of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates with Justin Holl #3, Jake Muzzin #8, Ilya Mikheyev #65 and William Nylander #88 after Matthews scored a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during the third period of the NHL game at Gila River Arena on November 21, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Maple Leafs defeated the Coyotes 3-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 21: Auston Matthews #34 (C) of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates with Justin Holl #3, Jake Muzzin #8, Ilya Mikheyev #65 and William Nylander #88 after Matthews scored a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during the third period of the NHL game at Gila River Arena on November 21, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. The Maple Leafs defeated the Coyotes 3-1. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a near perfect situation.

It’s been four years since the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Auston Matthews, and the plan to build a winner around the most talented player in franchise history is close to coming to fruition.

The Leafs got bounced in the playoffs this year against a weak team in a series that says more about the randomness of the goaltending position than anything about the team on the ice.  The Blue Jackets and their no-name roster somehow kept the league’s most potent offense off the scoreboard in game five, cementing a win in a series where two different goalies posted 50+ save streaks and finished with a combined 5v5 save percentage of 98%.

The much maligned Leafs received excellent goaltending, were awesome on special teams, and played a level of team defense you wouldn’t think possible if you only went by the narratives surrounding the team.

For those of who actually watched the games, and are at the same time capable of understanding the insanity of the numbers, there was nothing to worry about – just a fluke loss in a league built for upsets.

Toronto Maple Leafs On the Verge

The Leafs are in perfect shape heading into next season, whenever that may be.  To wit:

  • They have 11 picks in the upcoming seven round draft.
  • They do not have a single bad contract on their team, and are, in fact, the only NHL team that can make this claim.
  • Their idea to concentrate spending on a small group of elite players follows proper game theory strategy and is backed up by all math.
  • In games last year not started by Michael Hutchinson, they were competing for the President’s Trophy, finishing just back of Tampa and ahead of Boston.
  • Their team stats during the Keefe games were better than Boston and just behind Tampa. 
  • They finished 24th in5v5 save percentage, but still managed to be 8th overall under Keefe.
  • Teams that finish higher in the standings than they are ranked in 5v5 save percentage almost always do better in the immediate future, once the variance returns to normal.
  • The Leafs lead the NHL in elite players.
  • Auston Matthews is much better than either Leon Draisaitl or Nathan MacKinnon were at his age, and is on path to win the Hart Trophy shortly and become the NHL’s best player.  He is already the NHL’s best goal scorer, and has been since he entered the NHL.
  • In his first 300 NHL games, William Nylander scored more points than Nathan MacKinnon did in his first 300 games.  This doesn’t mean Nylander will be the better player (he won’t) but it does make the criticism of Nylander ridiculous.
  • The top five bands in pop music history are : REM, The Cure, the Clash, Radiohead and Wilco.  This has nothing to do with the Leafs, but I thought y’all should know.
  • With Johnsson, Kerfoot, Holl and Engvall all being paid more than the league minimum, and with the depth to replace them, the Leafs have a ton of cap flexibility and can make room if necessary.
  • The NHL’s Covid Economy gives the Leafs a massive advantage because not only will players be cheaper, but draft picks will have more value, and LTIR will have more value. Additionally, while other teams are feeling the pinch, the Leafs are not and won’t.
  • Nick Robertson is poised to give the Leafs their first star player beyond the first round since Tomas Kaberle.
  • Robertson, Mikko Lehtonen and Alex Barabanov are going to give the Leafs three above average players on the league minimum.
  • The supposedly bad Leafs blue line features Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren and Lehtonen.  That’s one of the best young groups of blue-liners in the NHL.
  • The Leafs finished 8th under Keefe (which I mentioned) but its important to note that they did it while playing half those games without Rielly and half of those games without Muzzin too.
  • To sum up: a great core of elite players, a great cap situatio, a great prospect pool, tons of draft picks, money for free agency, and they’ve already put up team stats equal to the best teams in the league for an extended period of time.

Next. Leafs Cap Situation Mystifies Media, It Shouldn't. dark

The Toronto Maple Leafs are basically in perfect shape – no team in the NHL is currently poised for a better or longer run at the top.  I already told you my favorite bands, now its time to reveal my favorite TV show:

Dynasty.

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